Woot!!!!!! :D

Michale

And 2014 was about a single issue jobs/economy...

Maybe that's splitting hairs, I'm not saying this in defense of Obama at all (like I said, I think it was an anti-Obama election),

Yep... Obama hisself SAID so... :D

I know what you are trying to say... But I think that Schumer said it best...

The American people wanted Obama and the Democrats to focus on jobs and the economy...

Obama and the Democrats focused on everything BUT that...

It's going to be an interesting dynamic...

GOP completely in charge of the legislative branch and Obama trying to maintain dominance from the Executive side of the house...

Somebody pop some popcorn! It's gonna be a helluva shew..... :D

Michale

Thanks to everyone for a successful 2014 pledge drive! Woo hoo -- we made our goal, and can keep the lights on for another year without resorting to ads!

:-)

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone again...

-CW

I don't really see 2006 and 2014 the same. Objectively, 2006 was really about a single issue: war. The American people were tired of it. Bush booted Rumsfeld because of the election. 2014 was more about general dissatisfaction. It was certainly anti-Obama, but it was less focused than the 2006 election.

Maybe that's splitting hairs, I'm not saying this in defense of Obama at all (like I said, I think it was an anti-Obama election), but I think it was kind of different. I think 2010 was a lot more similar to 2006, just because it was focused on a single issue.

-CW

Do ya'all think that what the American people said to Bush and the Republicans with The Great Thumpin' Of 2006 is the same thing the American people said to Obama and the Democrats with The Great Nuclear Shellacking Of 2014???

Michale

Democrats did whine, but they were a lot less whiny than the GOP, I'll give you that. In the spirit of being fair and objective. Heh.

I'de be willing to wager there were a lot LESS signing statements after the 2006 "thumpin' "... :D

And I would also dispute that "signing statements" and "executive orders" have similar impact on the lives of innocent Americans..

And NOW we have "Presidential Memorandum" to contend with as well..

Why can't politicians just stick with plain english??

"The Way To Do What I Want When The American People Don't Want Me Do What I Want" process...

Makes things SOOO much easier to understand...

Michale

Watching poll numbers so closely for so long now, I think you are largely right. But the polling can change for reasons beyond the president's control (Crimea, or gas prices) in significant ways.

The interesting thing about the GOP is that the stars have now aligned such that the GOP and Obama both want to get things done for the next two years. Obama, because of his legacy. The GOP, to set the field for 2016 ("See? We CAN govern if given the chance!"). Because of this unusual alignment, maybe things will happen. Maybe not.

The public generally doesn't pay that close attention. If Washington is being disfunctional, then everyone's poll numbers drop. If budgets are passed on time (no matter what's in them), everyone gets a boost. So there's that to keep an eye on as well.

I will check my PO Box for the cheque. Heh. So to speak.

Speak2 -

Yeah, I often run the "detail" graph to show the movement better, but not every month. However, I think next month there will be dramatic movement that will show up even on the large-scale graph.

I chose the larger scale not so much to keep the undecideds on there but for comparison purposes with other presidents (see the left-hand side of "obamapollwatch.com" for these comparisons). The Bushes (both of them), Clinton, Nixon, and Eisenhower all pushed the graphs to the extremes. I did cut it off at 80% (removing both Bushes' post-war spike peaks), but I had to go for a graph which showed most of every president's ratings.

Obama has been unusual in his stability, which is partly due to the data. For Obama, I use the "poll of polls of polls" monthly average, which does tend to smooth things out, but for previous presidents I used only Gallup monthly polls, which jump around quite a bit more.

In any case, you aren't the first to make this complaint, which is why I run the detail chart so often. But for the big picture stuff, I have to keep with the metric I first developed for comparison purposes (so that all the comparison charts don't have different scales).

And, you've got to admit, if you squint, it's at least sine-wave-ish...

Heh.

Sorry about the spam filter, your comment has been reborn.

Michale [7] -

(cough, cough)... "signing statements"... (cough, cough).

Democrats did whine, but they were a lot less whiny than the GOP, I'll give you that. In the spirit of being fair and objective. Heh.

:-)

OK, gotta go do the final update for the pledge drive now...

-CW

Lemme ask ya'all something...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2006

Imagine if Bush had, after being "Thumped" by Democrats in 2006, embarked on a crash program of Executive Orders and enforcing his will on the American people after the voters explicitly told him to knock it off and follow a different path...

I have to wonder if ya'all would have thought that Bush was being "bold"... :D

Or would ya'all be totally gabberflasted that Bush would so totally and so unequivocally ignore the will of the people in pursuit of a partisan agenda that, in ya'alls opinion, was completely against the best interests of the country..

I think it's a fair question, all things being equal..

That's one of my New Years Resolutions.. To ask fair, objective and emotionless questions.. :D

Howmii doing so far?? :D

Michale

ACK!! Another teacher!!! They're everywhere!!! :D

J/K.. I love teachers.. So much so, I married one.. :D Granted, before she became a teacher, but why quibble...

I also posted a second comment for you last night, replying to an earlier query, but it seems to be swirling around in the spam filter or something.

It's bound to rear it's head soon.. :D

Michale

I also posted a second comment for you last night, replying to an earlier query, but it seems to be swirling around in the spam filter or something.

This leaves a window of opportunity for the Republicans. But, if they fail to take full advantage of it, then they may pay the price for many years to come and Obama's final numbers may be far better than anything that Michale and his brethren could ever have dared to imagine.

I completely and whole-heartedly agree with you Liz..

The ball IS in the GOP's court...

Let's see what they do with it....

If they can run it for a touchdown before the ninth inning, then they get the Stanley Cup in 2016...

:D

Speak2,

Totally related to absolutely nothing...

That's my soap box. I won't even touch the "lazy sine wave" comment.

An electronics technician, per chance??

Michale

Earlier comment: Oregon doesn't have a sales tax. Washington doesn't have an income tax. Prior to the recession, Oregonians could go to WA, show their OR ID and were exempt from sales taxes, but WA residents still pay them.

I believe this changed after the recession. I think I now pay sales tax in WA.

I know I'm beating a horse that has already passed away, but of your two graphics, the second one is so much the better approach. We really do not need the vertical axis to be wide enough to include the undecideds. The variation in month-by-month numbers for this demographic is noise (sampling variability). Even if it is not, it is not in any way instructive. The second graphic, omitting this group, is much more clear.

That's my soap box. I won't even touch the "lazy sine wave" comment.

The American people understand very well what this president has had to deal with - domestically and internationally - and, while they would have liked to have seen a better effort and results, on both fronts, they still feel that Obama deserves, at the very least, the benefit of any doubt.

This leaves a window of opportunity for the Republicans. But, if they fail to take full advantage of it, then they may pay the price for many years to come and Obama's final numbers may be far better than anything that Michale and his brethren could ever have dared to imagine.

By the way, as of tomorrow, the cheque is in the mail, as they say! :)