Comments on: Senate Still Up For Grabs http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/ Reality-based political commentary Thu, 07 May 2026 19:46:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Political Ration http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53756 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Political Ration Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:23:00 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53756 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Mississippi News Feed http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53755 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Mississippi News Feed Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:03:51 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53755 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one unequivocally critical square of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one unequivocally critical square of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Omaha Sun Times http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53754 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Omaha Sun Times Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:02:45 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53754 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | FifthColumn http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53752 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | FifthColumn Thu, 23 Oct 2014 02:02:06 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53752 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview -- Democrats Hanging On? | Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53751 Senate Election Overview -- Democrats Hanging On? | Chris Weigant Thu, 23 Oct 2014 01:47:39 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53751 [...] But, hey, at least I admit it up front.There are a few changes in my state rankings from last week's column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We've got less than two [...] [...] But, hey, at least I admit it up front.There are a few changes in my state rankings from last week's column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We've got less than two [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview -- Democrats Hanging On? - Hangout Networks News http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53750 Senate Election Overview -- Democrats Hanging On? - Hangout Networks News Thu, 23 Oct 2014 01:44:38 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53750 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Irascible Musings http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53749 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | Irascible Musings Thu, 23 Oct 2014 01:10:53 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53749 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? - GANGUPON http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53748 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? - GANGUPON Thu, 23 Oct 2014 01:06:05 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53748 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | The Daily Float http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53746 Senate Election Overview — Democrats Hanging On? | The Daily Float Thu, 23 Oct 2014 00:55:39 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53746 [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...] [...] are a few changes in my state rankings from last week’s column, including one very important piece of good news for Democrats down South. We’ve got less [...]

]]> By: ChrisWeigant.com » Senate Election Overview -- Democrats Hanging On? http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53744 ChrisWeigant.com » Senate Election Overview -- Democrats Hanging On? Thu, 23 Oct 2014 00:37:20 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53744 [...] Senate Still Up For Grabs [...] [...] Senate Still Up For Grabs [...]

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53730 Michale Wed, 22 Oct 2014 12:07:10 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53730 <I>Calm down. </I> Awww, what fun is that!! :D <I>Even if you're right, this time around (I hasten to remind you of your certainty two years ago... how's President Romney's first midterm working out?)</I> Troo.. However, there were polls that called each side.. In there here and now, ALL the polls are saying it's a GOP Wave.. And the chances are increasing, even in Left Wing polls like HuffPoop and 538... It seems to me to be a forgone conclusion. Michale Calm down.

Awww, what fun is that!! :D

Even if you're right, this time around (I hasten to remind you of your certainty two years ago... how's President Romney's first midterm working out?)

Troo.. However, there were polls that called each side.. In there here and now, ALL the polls are saying it's a GOP Wave.. And the chances are increasing, even in Left Wing polls like HuffPoop and 538...

It seems to me to be a forgone conclusion.

Michale

]]> By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53717 Chris Weigant Wed, 22 Oct 2014 07:27:02 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53717 TheStig [1] - No Senate race here, either, but we could be in for a few wild ones the next few cycles (DiFi and Boxer are both reportedly thinking about maybe stepping down). My choice to replace either (but especially DiFi) would be Gavin Newsom. Jerry Brown'll be too old to run. Anyway, look for some lively primaries, next few cycles, maybe! Michale [2] - Even if you're right, this time around (I hasten to remind you of your certainty two years ago... how's President Romney's first midterm working out?), Democrats are heavily favored to take it back in 2016. So enjoy it while it lasts, if it happens. Michale [4] - Whoops! Good catch, I'll fix it... Michale [5] - That's a good point (I actually haven't heard anyone else refer to it as an October Surprise, but it could turn out to be a quite accurate term). The difference, partisanship-wise? If the tables had been turned, politically, in this election, Republicans would be howling that Democrats had invented Ebola and imported it for their own nefarious political reasons. Admit it: you <em>know</em> the crazies on the right would be making such claims, if the positions were reversed. To date, no Democrats or anyone on the Left has made such a claim. Even if it does turn out to be an effective October Surprise for Republicans. Because the Left just isn't that crazy. TheStig [9] - This is why I don't traffic in "percentage of possibility" prognostication. I mean, if I say there is a 51% chance of "tails" in a coin-flip and heads come up, really, how wrong was I? I really have to dig up (I've been lazy, but promise to do so for tomorrow's column -- Wed 10/22 -- in not publishing my public record of election picks. My Senate record is about as good as Nate Silver's, backed up by publicly published columns like these. :-) Michale [10] - Even if you're right, how much do you really think McConnell and Boehner are going to get passed, when they can't control their Tea Party radicals? Here's just one example: if Republicans are so all-fired "secure the border," they why has the Republican House not passed a SINGLE BILL to do so since they took power in 2010? But then, I wrote this article already: http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/20/contemplating-a-republican-senate/ Michale [11] - Calm down. You KNOW I don't fully register all my firm picks until the Monday before the election. This year's no different... but check back on Wednesdays until then... -CW TheStig [1] -

No Senate race here, either, but we could be in for a few wild ones the next few cycles (DiFi and Boxer are both reportedly thinking about maybe stepping down). My choice to replace either (but especially DiFi) would be Gavin Newsom. Jerry Brown'll be too old to run. Anyway, look for some lively primaries, next few cycles, maybe!

Michale [2] -

Even if you're right, this time around (I hasten to remind you of your certainty two years ago... how's President Romney's first midterm working out?), Democrats are heavily favored to take it back in 2016. So enjoy it while it lasts, if it happens.

Michale [4] -

Whoops! Good catch, I'll fix it...

Michale [5] -

That's a good point (I actually haven't heard anyone else refer to it as an October Surprise, but it could turn out to be a quite accurate term).

The difference, partisanship-wise?

If the tables had been turned, politically, in this election, Republicans would be howling that Democrats had invented Ebola and imported it for their own nefarious political reasons. Admit it: you know the crazies on the right would be making such claims, if the positions were reversed.

To date, no Democrats or anyone on the Left has made such a claim. Even if it does turn out to be an effective October Surprise for Republicans. Because the Left just isn't that crazy.

TheStig [9] -

This is why I don't traffic in "percentage of possibility" prognostication. I mean, if I say there is a 51% chance of "tails" in a coin-flip and heads come up, really, how wrong was I?

I really have to dig up (I've been lazy, but promise to do so for tomorrow's column -- Wed 10/22 -- in not publishing my public record of election picks. My Senate record is about as good as Nate Silver's, backed up by publicly published columns like these.

:-)

Michale [10] -

Even if you're right, how much do you really think McConnell and Boehner are going to get passed, when they can't control their Tea Party radicals? Here's just one example: if Republicans are so all-fired "secure the border," they why has the Republican House not passed a SINGLE BILL to do so since they took power in 2010?

But then, I wrote this article already:

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/20/contemplating-a-republican-senate/

Michale [11] -

Calm down. You KNOW I don't fully register all my firm picks until the Monday before the election. This year's no different... but check back on Wednesdays until then...

-CW

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53680 Michale Mon, 20 Oct 2014 23:16:41 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53680 <B>1. Kansas: Election Lab (95 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (56 percent independent win), LEO (59 percent independent win) 2. Iowa: Election Lab (87 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (67 percent GOP win) 3. Georgia: Election Lab (63 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (63 percent GOP win) 4. Colorado: Election Lab (83 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (69 percent GOP win), LEO (68 percent GOP win) </B> http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/20/republicans-chances-of-winning-the-senate-majority-keep-getting-better/ 4 of the Too Close To Call really aren't too close to call... The ONLY possible ray of hope for Dems is GA.... But all of the models are aligned on GA and give the GOP a decided advantage... But if GA goes Dem it will be a sign of the Apocalypse... Where's Sam & Dean when ya need 'em, eh?? :D Michale 1. Kansas: Election Lab (95 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (56 percent independent win), LEO (59 percent independent win)

2. Iowa: Election Lab (87 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (67 percent GOP win)

3. Georgia: Election Lab (63 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (63 percent GOP win)

4. Colorado: Election Lab (83 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (69 percent GOP win), LEO (68 percent GOP win)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/20/republicans-chances-of-winning-the-senate-majority-keep-getting-better/

4 of the Too Close To Call really aren't too close to call... The ONLY possible ray of hope for Dems is GA.... But all of the models are aligned on GA and give the GOP a decided advantage...

But if GA goes Dem it will be a sign of the Apocalypse...

Where's Sam & Dean when ya need 'em, eh?? :D

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53657 Michale Mon, 20 Oct 2014 10:31:41 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53657 538's predictions keep rising in favor of a GOP Senate... Anyone want to call it yet?? :D Michale 538's predictions keep rising in favor of a GOP Senate...

Anyone want to call it yet?? :D

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53616 Michale Sat, 18 Oct 2014 12:14:53 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53616 Yep, all the models are slowly aligning... It's going to be a Republican Congress.. Hopefully things can finally get done... More likely, Democrats and Obama are going to obstruct and veto anything that comes out of Congress... Michale Yep, all the models are slowly aligning...

It's going to be a Republican Congress.. Hopefully things can finally get done...

More likely, Democrats and Obama are going to obstruct and veto anything that comes out of Congress...

Michale

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53615 TheStig Sat, 18 Oct 2014 11:32:49 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53615 The latest CW.com overview rearranges the actors, with just the slightest tilt towards the Republicans. Still "too close to call." That's definitely one of the more optimistic forecasts for the Democrats in the prognosticator universe, but not unique. The central tendency of the big 4 quantitative prognosticators has moved significantly Republican, with 538 still holding near 60% chance of a control shift, while NYT and Huffpoll have gone into the 70% range and WAPO is near certainty. I think the shift reflects a greater faith in polling data and less reliance on "fundamentals," not any big shift in the polling data itself. The polls have been basically stable for quite a while. Personally, about a 70% chance of Senate power shift The latest CW.com overview rearranges the actors, with just the slightest tilt towards the Republicans. Still "too close to call." That's definitely one of the more optimistic forecasts for the Democrats in the prognosticator universe, but not unique. The central tendency of the big 4 quantitative prognosticators has moved significantly Republican, with 538 still holding near 60% chance of a control shift, while NYT and Huffpoll have gone into the 70% range and WAPO is near certainty. I think the shift reflects a greater faith in polling data and less reliance on "fundamentals," not any big shift in the polling data itself. The polls have been basically stable for quite a while.

Personally, about a 70% chance of Senate power shift

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53592 Michale Fri, 17 Oct 2014 18:10:53 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53592 <B>The Macaca Democrats Column: Why the GOP Is Winning Election 2014</B> http://freebeacon.com/columns/the-macaca-democrats/ <B>"It's funny because it's true.."</B> -The Simpsons.. :D Michale The Macaca Democrats
Column: Why the GOP Is Winning Election 2014
http://freebeacon.com/columns/the-macaca-democrats/

"It's funny because it's true.."
-The Simpsons..

:D

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53571 Michale Thu, 16 Oct 2014 20:35:52 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53571 Rut Roh, Raggey!! Wapo's Election Lab has dropped a point... Now it's only a 93% chance that the GOP will take the Senate.... :D Michale Rut Roh, Raggey!!

Wapo's Election Lab has dropped a point...

Now it's only a 93% chance that the GOP will take the Senate.... :D

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53555 Michale Thu, 16 Oct 2014 13:45:16 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53555 <B>Hispanics seem to be souring on Obama Democrats</B> http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hispanics-seem-to-be-souring-on-obama-democrats/article/2554851 Democrats loss of the Senate is all but assured.. Michale Hispanics seem to be souring on Obama Democrats
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hispanics-seem-to-be-souring-on-obama-democrats/article/2554851

Democrats loss of the Senate is all but assured..

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53552 Michale Thu, 16 Oct 2014 11:44:04 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53552 Ya gotta admit it... Ebola in the USA is a pretty heady October Surprise, eh??? Michale Ya gotta admit it...

Ebola in the USA is a pretty heady October Surprise, eh???

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53546 Michale Thu, 16 Oct 2014 09:50:01 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53546 <I>Leaning Democratic This category was volatile this week as well. Two states (Colorado and Kansas) moved down from here to Too Close To Call, and New Hampshire moved down to here from Leaning Democratic.</I> I think you mean Safe Democratic, right??? Michale Leaning Democratic

This category was volatile this week as well. Two states (Colorado and Kansas) moved down from here to Too Close To Call, and New Hampshire moved down to here from Leaning Democratic.

I think you mean Safe Democratic, right???

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53545 Michale Thu, 16 Oct 2014 09:48:40 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53545 <I> This smacks of desperation, it has to be said. National Democrats coincidentally just announced they're pulling ad money out of this race so it can be used in states where they think they've got a better chance.</I> Yooooo Hoooooo JFC??? You out there??? :D Oh.. Right... Not supposed to be insufferable.. :D Michale This smacks of desperation, it has to be said. National Democrats coincidentally just announced they're pulling ad money out of this race so it can be used in states where they think they've got a better chance.

Yooooo Hoooooo JFC???

You out there??? :D

Oh.. Right... Not supposed to be insufferable.. :D

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53544 Michale Thu, 16 Oct 2014 09:46:57 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53544 <I>The big question is whether Republicans will be able to take the six seats they need to gain control of the Senate.</I> Aw, come'on CW.. It's not a question at all... Every Poll out there puts the GOP in charge of the Senate.. From likely, to very likely to damn well certain... There is not ONE SINGLE POLL out there that gives Democrats a better than even chance of retaining the Senate.. The only question is how much control the GOP is going to have.. Anywhere from 52 seats to 58 seats... Sorry, people. I know it hurts, but there is going to be a full GOP Congress for the next two years.. I'll try not to be insufferable.. :D Michale The big question is whether Republicans will be able to take the six seats they need to gain control of the Senate.

Aw, come'on CW..

It's not a question at all...

Every Poll out there puts the GOP in charge of the Senate.. From likely, to very likely to damn well certain... There is not ONE SINGLE POLL out there that gives Democrats a better than even chance of retaining the Senate..

The only question is how much control the GOP is going to have.. Anywhere from 52 seats to 58 seats...

Sorry, people. I know it hurts, but there is going to be a full GOP Congress for the next two years..

I'll try not to be insufferable.. :D

Michale

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2014/10/15/senate-still-up-for-grabs/#comment-53541 TheStig Thu, 16 Oct 2014 05:37:45 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=9785#comment-53541 Well, I voted today, but there wasn't a US senate race in my state. The NYT has moved pretty strongly in the Republican's direction, 71% chance of Reps gaining control. 538 and Huffpolster still rate it 60:40 Rep edge. WAPO still calls it 95% Republican. As they put it, at this late date, they put high confidence that polling numbers can accurately call the race. All and all, the central tendency looks more Republican among the "Big 4" quantitative prognosticators. Well, I voted today, but there wasn't a US senate race in my state.

The NYT has moved pretty strongly in the Republican's direction, 71% chance of Reps gaining control.

538 and Huffpolster still rate it 60:40 Rep edge.

WAPO still calls it 95% Republican. As they put it, at this late date, they put high confidence that polling numbers can accurately call the race.

All and all, the central tendency looks more Republican among the "Big 4" quantitative prognosticators.

]]>