ChrisWeigant.com » Democrats Cheer Kansas Ruling...

I collated and ran the Nov 5 538 numbers through my monte carlo model and get numbers bounding Nate's call (40.6% Dem control) pretty closely, with the best fit at a very strong national variance component.

However, the partitioning of variance doesn't have affect things much one way or another in this data set. I'm seeing this repeatedly, partitioning doesn't move the meter much. So, my quick and dirty model is going call things pretty well this election cycle. Plus, it only takes a minute so set up, and most sites with odds do that for you anyway.

That said, watching monte carlo outputs gives a real perception for how slight the 3:2 blue advantage seems.

Tax breaks for wealthy.

Everyone else picks up the cost in ways that aren't immediately obvious. Property tax increases, fees and fines, sales tax increases, payroll tax increases, tuition increases, school increases, etc, etc.

I just received 4 fundraiser requests from my sister who has 1 son in junior high, 1 daughter in elementary school. The kids have to run fundraisers to pay for school and they also charge parents separate charges for items ranging from sports uniforms to band equipment.

All to pay for some tax cuts to some @ssholes who are shipping jobs overseas.

-David

Britain is loading ed-debt on their kids. One of the reasons for Scottish Independence polling as well as it did.

I like that graph too. I came of age right about when the wheels started to fall off. It's been quite a ride.

BONE HEAD :D

Michale

Yep. Our country looks nothing like it did even 20 years ago. We're so caught up in day-to-day survival though that it's often difficult to see.

Tried to post this earlier but it went off into the ether. Lemme try again.

It's quite possibly the economic chart of the year from Paulina Tcherneva at Bard College.

http://dadaviz.com/i/1070

It shows who's benefiting every time we have economic growth spurts.

They pretend to listen, they're advantaged, nice, smart and oh so at risk.

Perhaps at some point they will remember and/or revive democracy. The Millennial generation seems to get many things that older generations struggle with.

Maybe because they're seeing the effects of laissez-faire capitalism so strongly. They're playing on a monopoly board that has already been divvied up.

-David

Things have been trending economically worse for a generation now. Closer to two. The US economy is a money pump pushing wealth up the class structure. Our social system is an oligarchy. The best predictor of your lot life is who your parents are and how big their bank balance is. College was a leveler in my day, now its more like social screen due to the high debt load it puts on the less advantaged seeking to move up. Upward mobility is still possible based on merit, but much less likely.

We don't see it because its too big and we're too close to it.

I'll vote this year, but its out of habit and minor local issues. I'm in a gerrymandered district, no senate race.

As I tell my son, nieces and nephews, sorry, we screwed you. Pay attention, stay out of debt, marry well, invest carefully, adopt a healthy life style. They pretend to listen, they're advantaged, nice, smart and oh so at risk.

Let's hope so. I could see courts getting involved. Messy messy. Then there is the problem of who drifts to which caucus.

I wouldn't place a money bet on either party holding control. Too close, no hedge. Why bother?

Michale

Fear?

It'd be great.

My criteria for it being great however would be that it revives the middle class and actually trickles down. Not that we see a new Wall Street run.

The real question is, if it didn't happen, as it didn't happen under Bush II and after the Clinton "reforms," would anyone in power admit it?

Or would the just continue to support handouts to the rich for the political kickbacks?

-David

p.s. The economic chart of the week, perhaps the year, is this chart from Pavlina Tcherneva at Bard's College. It shows who benefits most from "growth" in recent years.

http://front.dadaviz.com/media/viz_images/distribution-of-average-income-growth-during-expan-1411633032.76-2745898.png

Four polls that give quantitative outcome odds (both overall and state by state) have definitely shifted in favor of the Republicans.

WAPO 77%, NYT 62%, 538 58%, HUFFPO 54%

The range of differences among the above is greater than it's been in a while, mainly because WAPO has gone back to outlier status calling the Republicans 4 to 1 favorites. NYT and 538 are closer to rating it 3 to 2 Republican, HUFFPO closer to even. This all looks a lot like the July situation.

My humble rank ordered model agrees well with all the above. That is, if I put their odds into my quick and dirty model, I get an overall prediction that is very close to theirs, without any monte carlo simulation.

Cook, Rothberg and Sabato are basically poll trackers. Their savvy guys, but frankly dinosaurs when it comes to methodology. Their overall conclusions are largely intuitive, and they can't really explain how they do it.

Bottom line, I personally rate the upcoming senate outcome as advantage Red, 3:2. I consider that a fairly close race, but that's subjective.

Ya'alls biggest fear is that, under a GOP Congress, the economy recovers and we're back to the prosperity we had during the Clinton years when there was also a GOP Congress.. :D

Michale

My fear as well, Stig.

Not sure what will finally tip the scales but if I had to guess I'd probably guess another major economic meltdown.

-David

Every mainstream poll is in alignment...

The Post

The New York Times

FiveThirtyEight

Charlie Cook

Stuart Rothenberg

Larry Sabato

The GOP is going to take the Senate. The only question is how much of the Senate they are going to take..

How do your own models stack up??

Michale

Get ready for the wave, Weigantians.. Make sure you have a good grip on yer flotation devices...

It's gonna be a wild ride... :D

Michale

Naw, that doesn't fit the narrative ya'all want... :D

Michale

Yea?? Democrats didn't learn from the lessons of a radical liberal utopia in Detroit..

Funny how ya'all wish to forget that, eh? :D

Michale

When even the New Republic is called Kansas a "conservative hell" you know things are bad.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119574/sam-brownbacks-conservative-utopia-kansas-has-become-hell

-David

The baggers are taking hostages.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/219400-tea-party-revolt-puts-kansas-at-risk

yea, if a Republican had been bribed to drop out of the race to pave the way for a psuedo Independent, Democrats would be screaming to the high heavens...

The chances of this outcome are anyone's guess, at this point.

Really?? Since Democrats cleared the way for Orman, it's obvious which way he is going to swing...

Roberts has become a creature of Washington (he doesn't even own a house in Kansas any more), making the race one of "insider versus outsider."

[[cough]] Landrieu [cough] [[cough]]

Iddn't it funny how principles and integrity go out the window when control of the Senate is at stake..

Once again.. NO difference between Democrats and Republicans...

None whatsoever...

As of today, with a little over a month to go, Republicans have a 78% chance of taking the Senate....

Michale