Remember, my fellow Weigantians...

One reaps what one sows....

Don't say I didn't warn ya'all....

Michale

JFC is just talking about some Joe SixPack voter...

Michale

"If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan"

Democrat lies prevailed again. They're shameless.

Isn't it funny how it works both ways?? :D

Michale

Republican lies prevail again. They're shameless.

Exactly..

I have always said it...

Die Hard Wingers (on both the Right & the Left) are superfluous in elections.. They will vote Party line regardless of ANYTHING else...

It's us Independents and NPAs who decide elections...

Michale

"Would you agree that Obama's sinking poll numbers will have a depressing effect on the Dem turnout this mid-term??"

Not much impact on Democrats, and I don't think sinking Republican numbers will affect them much either. Independents are another matter. How many of them decide to turn out, and how they break, is likely to determine who wins the few genuinely competitive races.

“I think a big part of it is Barack Obama”

Apparently, Kansans are unable to tell the two apart.

Would you agree that Obama's sinking poll numbers will have a depressing effect on the Dem turnout this mid-term??

Michale

I know I can be an arrogant and sarcastic ass, but this is not one of those times.. :D

It's possible (probable) that Republicans know something we don't with regards to the current crop of scandals.. Something along the lines of what revelations are coming down the pipe...

Given that assumption (and yes, I know. It's ONLY an assumption) having the GOP keep those scandals on the front page makes sense...

Michale

On Aug 4th, fivethirtyeight.com posted 60/40 odds of a Republican Senate takeover (net gain of 6 seats or more). This got some media attention!

As I've noted before, assumptions about the importance of national vs state variance play an important role in the ultimate odds assigned to each side controlling the Senate. I've run the 538 state by state odds through a Monte Carlo simulation that examines this question.

To get the odds of a Republican takeover up to 538's 60%, I had assign all the random variance to local factors. That results in a 59% chance of a Republican takeover, as near as perfect agreement with 538 as you can expect in this kind of simulation.

Interesting, but in the 2012 elections, the best fit with 538 Models was obtained assuming nearly all variance was assigned to a single National Random factor. Also the best fit with various "prediction markets." What has changed since 2012? I'm frankly skeptical anything has. Is Silver just being conservative? Is it a better meme to keep 538 in the news, and people clicking on his site? Naw, that COULDN'T BE!

Anyway, running my model with the historically based assumption of a 100% national variance component and the same 36 state by state probabilities drops the odds of a Republican takeover to 49.9%. By, the way, intermediate allocations between national and state variance give essentially straight line intermediate results.

So what kind of Senate raceway is it going to be this year: national issues or local issues? I'm still betting, Republicans would do best to make the election as local as possible...focus on state issues! And yet, Republicans seem to be hammering on national hot button issues like Immigration, Benghazi, Health Care..... According to the model, this amounts to trading a 20% lead for a dead heat? Why would they do this? Maybe that's what's bugging the Republican establishment types!

I know, it's a model, but models can raise some interesting questions.

Michale

Mr President. If it's a choice between you standing around and twiddling your thumbs and doing things that actually HURT and HARM this country??

Yes...

The American people would prefer that you stand around doing nothing but twiddling your thumbs....

The fact that you refuse to see this is why your approval rating is underwater and sinking..

Sir....

Michale

I tell ya, this might be it!!! :D

Michale

Wait til next month when school starts and classes that are already busting at the seams will burst..

Schools that are already struggling to make ends meet are going to be financially wiped out...

Michale

Michale

It's also useless to ask a crazy person if they are crazy.. They will always claim that they are not crazy, that it's everyone else who is crazy..

But, once again, I commend you on your demonization...

Goebbels would be so proud of you...

It's much easier to simply attack people than it is to have a thoughtful and meaningful discussion...

Michale

For example, the keyword “Obama” will result in an unhinged-from-reality Republican talking-point word salad every time. If a human user responds *, the chatbot will lead its victim down the cancervative rabbit hole with an onslaught of circular logic, dehumanizing slurs, half-truisms, bizarre claims of false equivalence or nonpartisanship, projection, links to right-wing cult publications, and misleading out-of-context quotes. The primary goals of the chatbot’s programmer are to derail thoughtful adult conversation regarding important issues and to normalize Republican thought disorders.

* Responding is not recommended. Some chatbots are extremely needy and replying will simply stimulate the chatbot to generate additional meaningless redundant clutter. It’s also pointless to ask a chatbot if it’s a chatbot. It will always say that it is not.

Actually, those types have more in common with Democrats than with Republicans..

Republicans want to wipe those people from existence..

Democrats want to give them a free ride..

But don't let things like reality and facts stop you from your fantasies...

It's uplifting (in a sad sort of way) to see a person who can ignore reality and live in their own fantasy world... :D

Michale

I doubt many sitting politicians are above water at this time. The natives (AKA We the People) are restless.

And THEN some....

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/americas-fed-obama-approval-rating-hits-all-time-low-poll-n173271

Now matter how ya'all try to paint things, Joe & Jane SixPack are NOT happy with their government and their leaders...

It's that simple...

And, if ALL ya'all got is "Well, they hate Republicans worse than they hate Democrats" or "They hate Congress worse than they hate Obama".....

Well, THAT is pretty sad...

Wouldn't you agree??

Like I said above, no one will admit that Obama has failed as they leader we ALL expected when we elected him back in 2008....

Ya'all just CAN'T admit it..

I, however, can... Easily...

I really frak'ed up by voting for Obama...

Michale

The rEVOLution will be spammed.

How sad is it for Obama that his ONLY claim is, "Yea, I might be bad, but they are worse."
:D

We usually expect more from our POTUS...

What a drop in expectations since the 2008 election, eh??

For ALL of us...

Michale

You and me both... You and me both.. :D

Anyway, this has been a long time coming (the problem has gotten worse and worse, until it got so bad that HUNDREDS of bogus users appeared DAILY), so I'm pretty happy I seem to have at least partially solved the problem. But it was indeed time consuming, which is possibly why I've been a bit inattentive for the past week or so, while writing new code.

It's to your credit that none of us has noticed.. :D

Michale

OK, today's article was a bit short, but in my own defense, I have been working on two separate projects behind the scenes here at CW.com.

The first is an article I hope to present tomorrow, which will spotlight the international reach of CW.com Enterprises (hopefully tomorrow, but may have to punt until next Monday, just to leave myself an "out"), which I'm sure you're all going to enjoy.

The second is a nuts-and-bolts thing, which is completely invisible to all current (registered) users of the site. I've been getting flooded with spammy new users at the site (to the tune of HUNDREDS per day), and so I had to hack the WordPress code to filter at least some of it out automatically. This is really bitchy work, as any programmer can tell you, but I think I've got it working correctly now.

To all of you, this change will be completely invisible. Nobody currently registered will notice the slightest change. But new registrations are now going to be filtered against a "blacklist" of banned sites.

If this causes problems for new users, I apologize in advance, but I don't really know what to tell anyone who can't successfully register. Get a new public email address -- that's all I can really say -- one from a company that doesn't allow millions of spammers to operate!

Anyway, this has been a long time coming (the problem has gotten worse and worse, until it got so bad that HUNDREDS of bogus users appeared DAILY), so I'm pretty happy I seem to have at least partially solved the problem. But it was indeed time consuming, which is possibly why I've been a bit inattentive for the past week or so, while writing new code.

The good news is this period is now over... so we should return to normal here.

-CW

Heh.

Still waiting for your prediction of sub-40 to come true, I might add...

But you're right, it was mostly a plateau month for Obama, on average.

Obama's numbers look bad... until you look at Boehner's... or McConnell's... or the Republican Party in general...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/05/a-majority-of-people-dont-like-their-own-congressman-for-the-first-time-ever/

and...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/08/05/morning-plum-gop-in-doghouse-among-women-nonwhites-young/

From that last one:

But the relative ratings of the Republican and Democratic parties are also noteworthy, particularly among key voter groups that GOP leaders have been hoping to improve their appeal among ever since the 2012 loss produced a round of soul searching about the party’s future. The toplines are that among registered voters, 38 percent view the GOP favorably, versus 60 percent who view it unfavorably; among Dems those numbers are 51-46.

:-)

-CW

41.7 Approval Rating..

But, I gotta admit, CW...

Ya cheered me up... :D

Tanks....

And Planes!!!!

yuk yuk yuk...

That never gets old... :D

Seriously, though...

How ANYONE can say things are going good for Obama is beyond me...

Ya'all sound like Republicans when Bush numbers started to tank..

"It's OK..." "It's not bad"... "It'll turn around"...

What's it going to take for ya'all to concede that Obama is NOT the messiah, is NOT god's gift to the American People and has a REAL leadership problem??

Michale