Michale

Most reputable polls say the fate of the Senate hangs almost entirely on just 8 competitive states. Dems need to win 3 of them to retain control of the senate. Two of them, NH and MI are likely pickups for them. Dems have to catch just one more among five tossups to get three wins. Most polling data say the odds of doing that aren't all that long.

What you are betting is that the polling models will break down in this election cycle. If they do, it's probably going to be hard to tell, because main stream prognostication says win lose and tie are all fairly likely. Even a clean sweep of the competitive 8 won't be convincing evidence of a polling breakdown, if states herd strongly, there is about a 50:50 likelihood this can occur, depending on the polling outfit. If a few safe states in the wrong direction, that will be good evidence the polls have broken down. It's possible, but, I'm not expecting to see that.

This is one of those elections where it's going to be easy to look right for the wrong reasons.

Given the reality of the here and now, I can't see how this is possible..

Democrats have so many strikes against them, both historically and given the many scandals and issues plaguing the Obama Administration..

My gut tells me that 2014 is going to make The Great Shellacking Of 2010 like a fun day at the beach by comparison...

We'll know for sure in a little over 3 months.. :D

One thing I know for sure.. The dynamic here in Weigantia is going to change a LOT... :D

Michale

My main take-away from all this analysis is that National US Politics is most binary - probabilities near 1 or zero in most states. Victory or defeat hinges on running the table in the few genuinely competitive states. That's obvious, but what's not so obvious is that the ease by which you can run the table depends on how independently states behave. That topic is pretty much ignored in the popular press. But, it's vital IMHO.

Herd behavior was Romney's best hope in '12. Without it, Obama was close to a 10:1 favorite (by my reckoning). With tight herds, Obama was (also by my reckoning) something in the range of a 2 to 3 to one favorite.

In '14, the Dems are basically in Romney's position, but with a fundamentally better set of odds, closer to 1 to 1.

Yea, the LESS THAN/MORE THAN symbols are used for attributes.. IE Italics and Bold etc etc...

As far as your computing goes...

I find it fascinating, albeit WAY over my head.. :D

But it sounds logical... :D

Michale

I found my 2012 partitioned variance model. Equally important, all the documentation for it (absolutely vital for any moderately big EXCEL model)!

I get very similar result to the NYT sim when I set the national variance component low, less than 25%. I get very similar results to my rank ordered model when I set the national component high, roughly 75% or more.

I conclude the NYT is using a small national component in their simulation code. This is consistent with how the NYT says they roll their dice..."We let the states move together to some extent."

That didn't seem to work well in 2012, when the states seemed to move in clumps, but we'll see in November.

I get very similar result to the NYT sim when I set the national variance component low, 75.

I conclude the NYT is using a small national component in their simulation code. This is consistent with how the NYT says they roll their dice..."We let the states move together to some extent."

That didn't seem to work well in 2012, when the states seemed to move together, but we'll see in November.

Probability of Dem majority =.47
Probability of tie .03
Probability of Rep majority =.50

The equivalent NYT predictions are:

Probability of Dem majority =.25
Probability of tie .18
Probability of Rep majority =.57

Partitioning model variance into local and global fractions is a devilish problem. In 2012 I found setting the local component near zero worked well when compared to Silver's model and prediction future pricing (Irish bookies in common parlance). That was then, this now. Maybe I'm seriously underestimating the local component, time will tell.

Somewhere on my hard drive there is a model that partitions the variances and spins all the dials like the NYT version, which is basically Silver's 2012 538 model. By playing around with my weighting factor I could get a good idea of what the NYT is using....but it's tedious, due to my quick and dirty XL spreadsheet programming!

I am really pumped for the upcoming Mid-Terms.. I have a feeling that this year's Weigantia Fund Drive is going to be the best one ever!!! :D

We need to get some wagers in place soon!!! :D

Michale

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

It partitions the variance into national and state components, but I don't know the relative loadings. Very clever animated presentation illustrating the range of Expected outcomes. Advantage to Republicans: 57% chance of control. 18% chance of a tie.

CW- hope you're looking in at this. Remember the discussion we had in the spring of 2012 about an animated map? The NYT approach is much better!

Silver is a Left Wing ideologue..

Karl Rove had all sorts of stats and details in the 2012 Elections...

Guess what?? :D

Michale

There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics
-Mark Twain

:D

Sure, you can find an economic stat here or an economic stat there that "proves" that the economy is getting better...

But if you ask Joe or Jane Sixpack if their lives are any better??

Guess what you'll hear??

I am a small business person.. I KNOW the economy is not getting any better based on the parameters that REALLY count...

And the majority of middle class Americans feel EXACTLY as I do...

Don't make me pull out the RCP polls.. :D

Michale

Three words..

G.... D.... P..... :D

Michale

One quick comment -- you state:

"Not a fact to be found"

and yet you keep stating "the economy is in the crapper."

I challenge you to back that up with some facts. Not opinions, not "a few guys said this" type anecdotes, but actual facts. You know, some numbers. From economists. Because from where I sit, all the numbers are steadily improving and are actually wildly better than when Obama took office.

So: put up or shut up.

More later... sorry, Craig Ferguson's about to come on...

-CW

I ran my model with the WAPO data and obtained the following results:

Probability of Democratic Senate majority = .35

Probability of Republican Senate majority = .33

Probability of Tie = .32

How you model what the individual state probabilities really mean makes a big difference. Silver gives a lot of details, most other big media prognosticators don't.

I strongly suspect the WAPO model is not tightly correlating state random variances, although the small number of viable pick up states being so small (just 4!) is also an important factor.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/10976498/Flight-MH17-and-the-new-world-disorder.html

Isolationists are so predictably boring....

There calling is "run away.... run away..."

Their mantra; "Lead From Behind" AKA Coward Of The Country...

{{yaaawwwwnnnnnn}}

Michale

No one can accuse you of NOT being thorough.. :D

My only caveat is your choice of source material..

538?? :D

Time will tell if yer right or not....

I'm looking forward to getting more data from more sources in the coming weeks.

I for one, would be very interested in how your model progresses..

Michale

"I'de be VERY interested in your methodology..."

The model I use is based on discussions in early editions of the 538 Blog about how to partition random variance in senate and presidential races. The detailed math, implementation and validation are entirely mine.

Do states act independently; 50 races, 50 different random variables, or does one random variable predict the outcomes of all 50 states? Or something in between? Playing around with this, I found one national variable works quite well: states have a strong herd effect. This makes computing the overall outcome of multiple state elections very simple.

Here's the model, suitable for two party races. On election day, Blue has some probability of winning any given state, based on a single random uniform number in the range 0 to 1 applied globally to all the states. If the global random number is equal or less than the probability assigned to a particular state, Blue wins that state, if not Red wins. As Blue "rolls" lower and lower random numbers, more more and more states pile into the Blue victory column, strongest Blue states first (p near 1), strongest Red states last (p near 0). Red and Blue are mirror images of each other.

Here's how to apply the above: Rank order the states in descending order of Blue cumulative probability. Go down the list to 16th state, and cross tabulate the probability. That's the estimated likelihood of obtaining the minimum victory condition (52 Blue to 48 Red).

Probabilities of winning a state can be estimated from polling data, but beware the common "% of vote +- some margin of error" is not the same thing! Probabilities of winning a state can be based purely on intuition. Either way, with state by state probability estimates, you can compute the logical grand national outcome given the underlying assumption that most random variance reflects national, not local variance acting on local preference.

The data I used came mostly from a recent post on the new 538 blog, supplemented by some other polling sources when 538 declined to make a call due to limited polling data. The other sources used qualitative probabilities like "safe," "likely", "leans" and "tossup" which I translated into 538 numeric values using direct comparisons between the sites. I was very conservative, using the lowest numbers in the category range as Blue surrogate data. I was very liberal for Red.

I have no idea what variance model WaPo uses, but their prior probabilities are much more bimodal than those of The 538. It's possible that WaPo assumes states approximately independently of each other. I'll look into that...

It's still very early in the game. I consider 538 very credible (at least in US politics), but you are only as good as your last prognostication. I'm looking forward to getting more data from more sources in the coming weeks.

Not a fact to be found.... :(

Michale

{{{ssiiiigggghhhhh}}}

Such high hopes....

Another HuffPoop wanna-be....

{{ssiiigggghhhhh}}

Michale

'It looks like it may be a terrible tragedy': Obama sparks anger with 40-second mention of Malaysian plane crash that killed 23 Americans before giving transportation speech
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2696366/It-looks-like-terrible-tragedy-Obama-briefly-addresses-Malaysian-plane-crash-emerges-23-U-S-passengers-board.html

More American eye rolling with our bungler in chief...

I tell ya, the American people will welcome a lawsuit against Obama..

SOMETHING has got to shake this clown back to reality...

Michale

Uh yup... That's their function. The arbiter of the Constitution...

Americans are already recognizing the illegitimacy of SCOTUS rulings, their bias, partisanship, unconstitutionally, and unfairness.

ONLY when the SCOTUS doesn't rule their way.. When the SCOTUS rules the way they want, everyone is just fine with the SCOTUS... :D

Funny how that is, iddn't it.. :D

This lawsuit is just the latest example of Republicans determined to do just that.

And yet, the American people indicate that Obama is out of control...

Whatever happens in November Republicans are intently marginalizing themselves. They are losing entire generations, entire races. They may even lose an entire gender!

Then ya'all have absolutely NOTHING to worry about, right?? :D

Then why so hysterical?? :D

While Republicans are indeed exploiting their current advantages, and feeding red meat to their base, that base is dwindling. Their general public support is eroding. They are vastly overplaying their hand

Keep telling yerself that. Whatever it takes for you to be able to sleep at night.. :D

Instead of Republicans gloating over the prospect of capturing control of Congress, they should be terrified about it, and worrying about what Republicans would do if they do. While disingenuous theatre and unrestrained extremism may excite the base it turns off the rest of the population. Its not just a question of how much of a backlash they'll face in November, but also how much backlash they'll face in 2016. And maybe even 2018, and beyond.

Time will tell..

I am more than willing to concede that you MIGHT be right..

But it is impossible for you to concede that you MIGHT be wrong...

Shall we hook up in 2018 and compare notes?? :D

Michale

Americans are already recognizing the illegitimacy of SCOTUS rulings, their bias, partisanship, unconstitutionally, and unfairness. The betrayal of the constitution and their oaths of office by Justices. What's needed is enough public outrage at the lack of objectivity, fairness, and constitutionality in SCOTUS opinions to convince polititians the public would support the constitutional option. Polititians' feeling institutionally threatened by SCOTUS' grab for unlimited power certainly wouldn't hurt either.

The real lesson of the Clinton impeachment, and one that, like so many other lessons, Republicans just refuse to learn, is that you can overplay your hand. This lawsuit is just the latest example of Republicans determined to do just that.

Whatever happens in November Republicans are intently marginalizing themselves. They are losing entire generations, entire races. They may even lose an entire gender! They're certainly working hard enough at it.

While Republicans are indeed exploiting their current advantages, and feeding red meat to their base, that base is dwindling. Their general public support is eroding. They are vastly overplaying their hand.

Nothing could be better for progressives, and for America for that matter, than for Republicans to convince the general public that these mid-term elections really matter! Because if they ever decide they're important enough to actually start actively participating, Republicans may find themselves marginalized and out of power for decades, perhaps even permanently. Instead of Republicans gloating over the prospect of capturing control of Congress, they should be terrified about it, and worrying about what Republicans would do if they do. While disingenuous theatre and unrestrained extremism may excite the base it turns off the rest of the population. Its not just a question of how much of a backlash they'll face in November, but also how much backlash they'll face in 2016. And maybe even 2018, and beyond.

I'de be VERY interested in your methodology...

The best tracking that I have been following for quite a while is over at WaPo...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tran/politics/election-lab-2014

As of today, the chance of the GOP taking the Senate is 87%...

7 seats are expected to flip from DEM to GOP. ZERO seats are expected to flip from GOP to DEM..

It simply doesn't look good for the home team unless there is a BOOB that favors the Dems between now and Nov....

Michale

'bout a week ago you asked me to evaluate Democratic chances in the 2014 midterm elections. My gut reaction was "advantage Republicans."

After running a model on recent polling data I've upgraded the prospects of Democrats retaining outright Senate control at about 55% to 60%. Advantage Democrats?!!! Quite surprising, given the gloomy headlines.

Now, it's still early, and there aren't a lot of useful data yet, and I'm assuming high correlation between state voting behaviors. Haven't had a chance to run a non-correlated model yet, but the 100% correlation model is simple and fits recent historical patterns better. Intermediate models might work even better, but devising and populating one with raw data is a task suitable for a Ph.D. dissertation.

The way the current political winds are blowing, immigration is going to be issue numero uno in the coming election..

The issue by itself is already hurting Dems and causing fractures within the Democrat Party with Obama's debacle on the Southern Border..

A recent LEO intelligence report totally negated the Administration's BS claim that it was violence in the home countries that was the cause of the mass invasion... It was Obama's policies that were the catalyst...

Further, when one considers the ticking time bomb that is the upcoming school year right before the election??

A GOP SuperMajority in the Senate, if numerically feasible, is not outside the realm of possibility...

Remember, you heard it here first.. :D

Michale

So, what you seem to be saying is that it's a good thing that Cochran won the primary because McDaniel is a moron...

Well, whaddyaknow!???

We agree again!!! :D At least about Cochran winning being a good thing. I am not comfortable with bigotry so I don't agree with you about the intelligence level of McDaniel...

Michale

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/07/16/chris_mcdaniel_s_lawyer_explains_why_thad_cochran_s_black_voter_outreach.html

It will be entertaining to see them actually file suit to overturn a *party nomination contest* based on no evidence. Every one of those "real" vote diluting black people who they claim voted in the (D) primary and the runoff may have voted for McD. He'll need to have Sarah Palin as the judge for an idea as stupid as this one to succeed. Liberty!

Yea, well Odumbo never met a Foreign Policy issue that he could actually do some good with..

You see how silly and childish it is to call people names??

Let's try and keep the intelligence level of the discussion at LEAST above the 2nd grade level, eh??

I'm just sayin'.....

Michale

"Laugh it up, fuzzball.."
-Han Solo, STAR WARS IV, A New Hope

:D

Michale

But the American people are sick and tired of Obama's antics and incompetence..

As far as the American people are concerned, it's about time someone held him accountable..

Michale

That is actually the easiest question to answer...

If John Boehner really does think President Obama was acting lawlessly, then he should draw up articles of impeachment. He is, in fact, duty-bound to do so (if that's really what he believes) by the oath of office he swore. Boehner, however, knows this is never going to work. He knows that the Senate will never vote to convict on such flimsy grounds, and he knows full well what happened to Republicans the last time they tried this (Bill Clinton's approval rating shot through the roof).

AHA!!!! NOW I can post that comment and it will actually be relevant!!!! :D

Gimme a sec... :D

Found it!!

You seem to be stuck in the mode that, because the Republicans got their wee-wees slapped when they impeached Clinton, that the same thing is possible to happen when they impeach Obama.. IF they impeach Obama...

There is a big difference between impeaching Bill Clinton then and impeaching Barack Obama now...

First and foremost, the country was doing pretty well under Clinton.. Clinton was popular BEFORE the impeachment, so he had the advantage of looking "picked on" by the mean old Republicans..

In there here and now, the economy is in the crapper.. Our prestige across the planet is at it's lowest point in this country's history..

And Obama's approval AND likability AND integrity AND trustworthy numbers are low and sinking fast.. There is not ONE SINGLE positive in ALL of Obama's poll numbers. Every factor that CAN be polled about Obama is underwater...

To put it in context, Clinton's approval numbers were in the low 60s at the beginning of the impeachment process..

Obama hasn't seen the plus side of 45 in years.... The American People have, for all intents and purposes, issued a vote of NO CONFIDENCE for this POTUS..

Hell, the polls show that Obama is the WORST POTUS since WWII and further show that a plurality think that, in hindsight, ROMNEY would have been the better choice for POTUS...

Further, Clinton's impeachment was because of perjury and obstruction of justice.. Crimes that really didn't affect Joe and Jane SixPack..

Obama's crimes are affecting a wide swath of Joes and Janes across the country...

In other words, when the GOP impeached Clinton, the American people were, like, "Eh?? So he lied about boffin' some bimbo.. Who wouldn't???

But Obama's transgressions are really screwing over the American people.. They are affecting, in a very VERY bad way, millions and millions of Americans..

The facts (if you can call "polls" facts) clearly show that the it's entirely likely that Americans would support an Obama impeachment..

Now, how would this impeachment play out, you ask....

I am glad you asked...

The way I see it, two things will have to happen for a successful impeachment of the POTUS.

1. The GOP will have to take the Senate...

2. Obama's poll numbers will have to sink below 40% and stay there for a while...

As to #1, this is all but a forgone conclusion. The GOP will control Congress after the midterms..

#2 is also extremely likely as there are so many hits going against Obama right now and the possibility that there is more bad news coming is a very real and distinct threat..

Look at the IRS scandal.. Lerner's two years of emails were obviously disappeared for a reason. Does anyone here honestly believe that, if there was no smoking gun, that those emails would have been lost forever?? It's a forgone conclusion that those emails contain very incriminating information. And, since there is a very real possibility that these "lost" emails are going to be found and are going to start to trickle out from the IRS scandal will create a "death from a thousand cuts" syndrome for the Obama Administration.

Another area that is pounding at the Administration is the southern border situation. The Administration tried to float the BS story that it was violence in the countries that prompted the mass migration. But that lie was immediately shot down by reports from the border that overwhelmingly confirmed that it was Obama's DACA pronouncement that brought the refugees to the border.. So, the attempt by the Administration to shirk responsibility was DOA... As it continues to worsen, as US resources are stretched WAY past the breaking point, the Obama Administration will bear full ownership of the debacle...

And, of course, there are still the VA scandals (a Veteran got a letter saying that the VA approved his move to another VA facility.... TWO YEARS AFTER THE VET DIED!!!), Bengahzi is on simmer and the Obama Administration is STILL getting hits from the Fast/Furious scandal...

Now, you rub all these facts (and they ARE facts, regardless of what Obamabot fanatics will tell you) together and they all point to the VERY REAL threat that Obama will not only be impeached, but that it actually might pass the Senate and Obama will become the very first sitting POTUS to be removed from office...

All it will take is the GOP to take the Senate (all but assured) and Obama's poll numbers taking a dive, which is what is happening right now...

Of course, having said all of the afore, one thing might derail the impeachment process and could possibly dissuade Republicans from following this course of action.

President Joe Biden....

:D

Now, personally, *I* don't have a problem with this. Biden, despite his gaffs and chronic foot-in-mouth condition, has proven to be a (somewhat) honorable man. For a Democrat politician anyways... :D

And, it's forgone conclusion that Biden could not do worse than Obama, even if he tried... NO ONE could be THAT bad..

And, finally, even if a President Biden tried to be Obama's mini-me, there would be a limit to the damage he could do. POTUS Biden would be way too busy picking up the pieces of a demolished Democratic Party to do TOO much damage to the country...

So, it's a crap shoot as to whether or not President Biden would be enough of a deterrent for Republicans pursuing impeachment..

The prevailing thought governing the impeachment action would possibly (likely??) be that ANYONE is better than Obama...

Do you want to know why I believe that Americans would likely support an Obama impeachment??

OBAMA SUPPORT DROP
2 points among men (44% to 42%)

4 points among women (49% to 45%)

5 points among 30-49 year olds (51%-46%)

4 points among Democrats (81% to 77%)

7 points among Independents (39% to 32%)

7 points among Liberals (83% to 76%)

6 points among Hispanics (73% to 67%)

10 POINTS among African Americans (86% to 76%)

5 points among voters in union households (65% to 60%)

http://washingtonexaminer.com/john-zogby-is-it-all-over-for-obama/article/2550415

These numbers CAN'T be spin'ed away...

There can simply be NO OTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATION save that Americans across the board, are abandoning Obama...

If Bohner does sue, the American people will likely be on his side...

If the GOP does impeach??

The American people will likely be on their side...

Michale

Do tell! Please post a link!

:-)

-CW