Your estimate is generous. Even at the high end of the estimates, the House Republican caucus is only about 1/3 committed Tea Partiers.

My estimate was ludicrously generous (and it was kind of you to choose the word "generous" in this instance!) now I come to look at it again and compare it to the figures you posted in the blog!

Boehner said, in essence, "we'll try it your way and see what happens"

I can see Boehner doing that though more in exasperation than as a purely tactical move to show up the tea party. The stakes were really high - I wonder how concerned he was when it came down to the last 24 hours before default? With Eric Cantor siding with the tea party, there must have been considerable pressure on him from that quarter.

"Operation American Spring"? Haven't heard of it. Please post a link!

It is my pleasure to do so, good sir!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/26/1294904/-May-16th-republican-plot-to-overthrow-government

I have several links but chose this one because it includes further links to some of the groups involved.

This second link I chose because it shows a connection between Cliven Bundy's militia bodyguards and Operation American Spring. Scroll down to the third photo and read the sign on the back window:

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/bundy-ranch-uncensored

Yeah, I hear you...

:-)

-CW

This makes it tougher for Democrats, there's no denying it.

And, that is why I am so rooting for the Tea Party in all of its primary challenges ... :)

I've been watching the Tea Party since their inception. I actually supported their right to street theater in my first ever post about them:

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2009/04/13/tea-and-sympathy/

but I did warn of policing their own ranks. To weed out the Cliven Bundys, so to speak.

Your estimate is generous. Even at the high end of the estimates, the House Republican caucus is only about 1/3 committed Tea Partiers.

I think the shutdown was a move by Boehner to show that the Tea Party's tactics would not lead anywhere good. He knew that the American public would likely have long forgotten it a year later, and he also knew that if he had refused to let them take the lead, his leadership job would be in jeopardy. Since that point, tellingly, even the Tea Partiers don't make much noise about another shutdown as a possible tactic.

Boehner said, in essence, "we'll try it your way and see what happens," and then afterwards had a lot more leverage to make them toe the establishment line ("see? we tried it your way and it didn't work!"). The real test of this is whether ANY immigration bill will be put on the floor of the House this year or not. Boehner wants to do so, but the Tea Party is not on board.

"Operation American Spring"? Haven't heard of it. Please post a link!

goode trickle -

That is a very interesting point about McCutcheon, and the possibility for removing the middleman. Hadn't considered it before, but now I will keep an eye out to see if the money does indeed move.

LizM -

Yes, it does indeed mean better GOP candidates. Six months ago, there were five or six states where TP candidates could have upset mainstream Republicans. Now that list is shrinking, and may be down to only one (Mississippi) where a TP candidate may win a Senate nomination.

This makes it tougher for Democrats, there's no denying it. Guess the GOP finally got tired of "I'm not a witch" candidacies.

-CW

I'm wondering, if fewer TP'ers are successful in their primary challenges, does that mean more Republicans will win their elections than may otherwise have done so if they were Tea Party candidates?

If so, that' not good news.

I'd like to see Democrats in effective control of the House and Senate for the next two years, just for fun.

Personally I predict that they will return to being that smaller "base" faction of the party now that the supremes have popped the cap on money in the election cycle.

When I look at the "Tea Party" rise to power it also closely coincides with the monied interests co-opting the libertarian response to occupy. The high political drama that leaks forth from their mouths provided a great cover for hiding who was spending money to buy their votes.

When I look at the downward trending not only does it coincide with the pesky morals and ethics issues that they seem to have it also matches up quite nicely with supreme court decisions that ensured all of those dollar bills had the right to speak. I think in this next election cycle we are going to see the true power of McCutcheon make itself known. If somebody is no longer supporting your corporate position all you have to do is find someone who does and run them. Whereas back when you had only Citizens United and you had to hide your money and true intentions the tea party served as a useful surrogate.

Now that money can flow freely and will not be "corrupting" the process it is inevitable that the Tea Party will return to it's traditional role in the party. After all don't you think that the monied interests that backed most of these people have figured out that crazy is not the best way to accomplish whatever it is you need from the government?

It seemed to me that the main problem establishment GOP had with tea party members in Congress was their absolute refusal to tow the line. Normally, freshmen Congresspersons, even those of a radical nature, fall into line within a month or two once they see how the system works. Not so the tea partiers and that has been a point of angst and increasing frustration for the establishment. For one thing, it held them to a boots-and-all "repeal Obamacare" position that is losing traction and likely to continue losing support between now and November.

As for the issue of immigration reform, the problem for House Republicans isn't just the ideas of the tea party and libertarians in their midst. The establishment have big money commitments to big business that favor amnesty and they know that conflicts with their base. "Oh what to do, what to do?" Don't discuss it at all, seems to be the reply so it wouldn't surprise me if the issue is shelved until next year at the earliest. It reportedly is not on the agenda Cantor has drawn up for House business between now and November (although another Obamacare repeal vote is).

Fox News, as the voice of the Republican Party, particularly the tea party of which Hannity is apparently a member, took a hit with the Bundy fracas and I'm wondering if there is worse to come. If the Operation American Spring march on Washington DC comes off on May 16, there's the potential for it to be bigger-than-Bundy. Tea Party Nation is supporting it as have Fox talking heads. I hope they do pull it off if only to show complacent Americans just what Republican extremists really look like en masse. It would also be interesting to see which Republican candidates support it and which fall over their feet in an attempt to distance themselves from it.

I've also been aware of some interesting anecdotal stories in various comment pages. Two stand out for me. One was the commenter's sister, a dyed-in-the-wool Republican who told a doorknocker looking for donations that he wouldn't get a cent from her until the GOP fielded sane candidates. She wrapped up her rant by telling him she was going to vote for Hillary. Another was the commenter's friend who wondered if it was the Democrats who had "planted" the tea party in the GOP because she couldn't understand why her party would be so crazy as to take them on board.

It's hard to know from just a handful of stories how widespread this disaffection is among Republican supporters. However, if Operation American Spring goes ahead, I dare say there'll be a lot more added to the disaffected ranks.