I first began this latest phase of interest in American politics last September when the government shutdown was looming because anything catastrophic that happens to the US economy reverberates around the world and not in a nice way. It seemed that the Republicans orchestrating this particular hostage-taking were blithely ignoring this; it wasn't just the US economy but the world economy they were holding hostage - and they didn't care.

It was quickly apparent that Obamacare was the target of their demands - defund it or delay it indefinitely (presumably to give them more time in the future to defund it or repeal it before it went into effect). That didn't make any sense on the face of it so I looked a little deeper. Oh I see now - at the core of their entire problem is their absolute loathing of President Obama and everything he says or does!

They'd nicknamed the PPACA "Obamacare" in the expectation that it would be the political earthquake that would bury Obama forever. But that was only ever going to work if they could stop it being implemented. The government shutdown was their last-ditch attempt and they were so desperate they put the world economy on notice in the process. (That's extreme level desperation!)

So what else was going on here? Politics - well, that was a given. But politics in this instance was not taking into account Psychology 101 - most people have an innate ability to discount politicking if it clashes with their own personal concerns - and healthcare is personal.

From last July:

"They [Republicans] were the ones, after all, who insisted upon calling it "Obamacare" in the first place. And if people like it, it will forevermore be to Obama's credit, due to this Republican branding effort." Yep, I came to the same conclusion very early on in the piece.

"The Republicans so overplayed their "it's never gonna work!" hand that it has actually lowered the bar for what could be considered Obamacare's success. People have such low expectations for the program that if it meets or exceeds them, they'll be reasonably satisfied."

When the government shutdown tactic didn't come off and the GOP continued with their "it's never gonna work!" rhetoric, I wondered at the increasing risk of their "all eggs in one basket" gambit. However, I didn't consider that this was also lowering the bar of people's expectations; that it wouldn't take much for them to be happy with their Obamacare once it was implemented. Good call, Chris!

"Which is a huge danger for the Republican Party's expressed 2014 anti-Obamacare strategy -- and one that they likely don't even see right now." Either they still don't see it or they've wallpapered themselves into such a tight corner that there's no wiggle room left. I'm inclined to think it's the latter in which case Republicans have shut the door on the "adapt" strategy.

I liked Stephen Colbert's take on Obama's "Why are people fighting so hard to take away people's health care?". He called it "dirty politics" because "if people know the GOP want to take away their health care, they won't vote for them in the midterms and give them a majority in the Senate so they can take away people's health care". (These quotes from memory so are unlikely to be word-perfect).

Colbert encapsulated how the GOP will continue with their "this will never work" stance. I also think they will rationalize that 7.1 million scattered among 50 states is barely a drop in the ocean when it comes to voting figures and that all of them will be Democrats who won't vote in the midterms anyway so why would they care about these trifling figures?

It remains to be seen how both sides deal with current and future figures.

"Welcome to the party, pal!!!!"
-John McClane, DIE HARD

You get used to it, if you stick around.. :D

I am honestly and truly glad that TWC has worked for you..

I have never denied that there ARE success stories out there..

But, what my fellow Weigantians have NEVER conceded is that, for every success story, there are HUNDREDS of horror stories that Democrats simply ignore..

THAT is what chap's my ass...

Harry Reid said that EACH and EVERY horror story about TrainWreckCare is a lie.. And THAT is the philosophy that every Weigantian adopts..

It's like, if you don't love obamacare, you are non-existent and don't even matter.

And THAT attitude comes from LIBERALS, fer chreest's sake!!

I have always stated and it IS true that obamacare DOES work for a few...

But what of the vast majority of Americans that it DOESN'T work for??

Don't THEY count??? Don't THEY matter?? Are THEY not Americans???

Basically, the gist I get around here is that they don't mean sheet....

And THAT attitude sucks...

But I guess that's just me...

Michale

You're both right about bringing down the number of uninsured as the right metric and the "churn" will hopefully be normal (by historic standards).

Though, I am curious about the tax-penalty implications. Does someone who stops paying after some number of months get hit with a pro-rated penalty? Just a curiosity point.

Finally, you're absolutely right about the reasons that the GOP can't put out a real replacement plan. The third bullet s/b that most of what would be in a GOP alternative that might actually have a real affect is already in the ACA. What is leftover is small and/or makes things worse (e.g. tort reform). It is why so many of us are hoping the ACA is a step along the way to true single-payer.

Yea??

To be fair, if Obama hadn't ignored the law of his OWN legislation and changed things by fiat, EACH and EVERY prediction I had made *WOULD* have come to pass..

You say TrainWreckCare is working??

NOT as it was passed, THAT much is certain... :D

Michale

First off, welcome to the site!

Your first comment was held for moderation, but you should now be able to comment and see them immediately. Just don't use more than one link per comment, as these are automatically held for moderation to cut down on comment spam.

Secondly, thanks for sharing your story! I have been hearing a lot of these stories personally, and wonder if the DNC (or the DCCC or the DSC or whatever other "let's elect Democrats" organizations out there) is actively seeking people willing to tell their stories in public.

As for your final point, I had that discussion with a friend the other day. We were talking about the 7.1m figure, and I said "sooner or later, this won't be the important number, what people will focus on is the absolute percentage of Americans who are uninsured." And you're right -- it has been dropping steadily since the Oct 1 rollout. If it continues to drop, this will become the real measure of Obamacare's success.

Speak2 -

You point out the "churn" in insurance over the course of a year, and you're right. This is why -- even later in the year, when more complete signup data comes out -- the numbers will always be shifting. Which is why (see above) I think the percent uninsured will be the real metric, in the long run.

As for being scored, you're right, the tweak bills have been. But the GOP has never put out their "this is the big plan to replace Obamacare with" bill, because (1) they can't agree what should be in it, and (2) they are scared of the CBO proving it would be a worse deal for Americans than Obamacare.

Michale -

It was amusing, when putting this column together, to read a few of your past comments about what was going to go wrong. Pretty much none of them have come true yet, but you keep right on waiting... maybe it'll happen...

Heh.

-CW

Yer gonna LOVE this!!! :D

Virginia Democrat James P. Moran (Moron?? :D) says that Congress Critters are..... wait for it..... wait for it...

UNDERPAID!!!!

http://www3.blogs.rollcall.com/hill-blotter/moran-members-cant-afford-to-live-decently-in-d-c/

What ya think?? Worthy of a

BWWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA??

:D

Michale

As I say, put aside the argument, step back and view the thing at a distance. Support it or not, you cannot look at ObamaCare and call it anything but a huge, historic mess. It is also utterly unique in the annals of American lawmaking and government administration.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304441304579479700454846082?mod=hp_opinion&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304441304579479700454846082.html%3Fmod%3Dhp_opinion

By all means, Democrats.

Embrace TrainWreckCare...

I dare you!

I double-dog dare you!

Because nothing will guarantee that GOP takes the Senate more than Democrats who say "TrainWreckCare is a good thing for America"

Ask Alex Sink...

But I realize that the fantasy that obamacare is a good thing for America is what is sustaining ya'all..

I understand. I get it..

Just remember. The higher ya'all get over TrainWreckCare, the harder ya'all will fall when it crashes and burns..

I am just trying to keep ya'all grounded with facts and reality..

Facts like obamacare is more unpopular than ever..

Facts like the 7.1 million number is actually closer to a couple million.

Facts like the 3.1 million on parents insurance is utter BS.

Facts like no one knows how many people actually have PAID...

These are undisputed facts that no amount of partisan cheerleading can erase..

So, enjoy your stinkburger... It's going to be followed by a long long luncheon of crow salad culminating by a crow de la mint dessert in November.. :D

Michale

I agree that talking about those who enroll but do not pay from a numbers perspective should only happen in the context of adding the number of people who sign up privately rather than thru some exchange and maybe even the 26 yr olds and Medicaid recipients. Medicaid and life changing events allow people to sign up without a "deadline," in fact.

I do wonder how many people pay their first-plus premiums but stop sometime during the year. How many people will have to stop paying after 4 or 6 months? Will this become part of the GOP talking points? I don't know of anyone who has asked this question, even on the conservative side.

Also, one point of clarification. I am under the impression that the GOP has had some "tweaks" and "replacements" scored by the CBO, including the Hatch/Burr/SomeoneElse plan and the 40-hr workweek plan that just passed the House.