Although I would point out that predicting that Democrats won't win the House is like predicting that the sun will rise in the east and set in the west..

It's not really in question..

Michale

But the Democrats always being the good guys and the Democrats always being right parts are dead on ballz accurate..

I have commented on that phenomena before but never got a response.

How is it that the Democrat Party is ALWAYS right?? How is it the Democrat Party is ALWAYS good and noble and the Republican Party is ALWAYS the epitome of evil??

The laws of probability would make such a claim IMPOSSIBLE...

It's the "Blackwhite" concept in a nutshell...

Michale

Oh, c'mon, I'd put it at 65% status quo, 25% GOP wins big, 10% Dems win.

But then, I'm an incurable optimist...

:-)

Michale [22] -

Are you high, or what?

You state:

Ya ever notice how every one of your opinions has Democrats as the good guys and Democrats always being right and Democrats always winning??

But you're responding to:

I rate the odds of a Democratic takeover of the House to be very low, close enough to zero for practical purposes.

Are you jumping the gun on that FL medical marijuana? Inquiring minds want to know.

-CW

The only strong ideology I have is the ideology of common sense.. No politics required..

You asked for an opinion.....

I did indeed..

I also figured exactly what you would say..

You didn't disappoint.. :D

Ya ever notice how every one of your opinions has Democrats as the good guys and Democrats always being right and Democrats always winning??

I have... :D

Michale

"I get it. I really do. Your political ideology forbids you from considering that Dems will be utterly routed this November.."

I find people with unusually strong ideology tend to assume everybody else has an equally strong ideology.

My ideology, which even I don't know describe in any simple way, allows me this snapshot impression of CW's midterm scenarios:

I believe the most likely outcome is status quo, my odds roughly 60%.

The next most likely outcome is that Republicans win big, odds 40%. I would give them higher odds if the Tea Party wing allowed them to field stronger, less ideological candidates.

I rate the odds of a Democratic takeover of the House to be very low, close enough to zero for practical purposes.

I don't know if DeMark is a is a brilliant stock market analyst or a huckster, although I lean pretty strongly towards the latter. He has no strong academic background in math modeling and statistics. He doesn't publish in peer reviewed journals. I can't find any objective and peer reviewed validation of his approach. Most of what I read about him is cheer leading from day trading acolytes.

From:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/6779/individual-gurus/how-about-tom-demark/

"There are apparently no quantitative studies of the statistical or economic significance of the indicators on this site. The weak performance claims in the third item above would be very difficult to prove or disprove. A prospective buyer might wonder:

Why, if the indicators have great economic value, their creator would sell them rather than just use them privately.

Whether the indicators carry material data snooping bias.

Whether their broad dissemination would extinguish any past efficacy."

Excellent questions indeed!

By itself, the graph you referenced seems, to me, to have no predictive value. The presentation is deceptive, although not necessarily deliberately deceptive. For what it's worth, I have 30 years worth of applied stats and modeling experience (academic, government and private sectors) with publications in peer reviewed literature. I've "borrowed" a lot of economic models during my career, but as fate would have it, I've never actually done any formal (paid professional) economic analysis of the stock market.

You asked for an opinion.....

For example...??? :D

I get it. I really do. Your political ideology forbids you from considering that Dems will be utterly routed this November..

The fact that those trends are even ROUGHLY linear should scare the bejeezus out of Democrats. :D

But the nice thing is, when it happens, I'll be able to say "Well, lookie here"...

If it doesn't, then you get the honors.. :D

We should know soon enough..

Michale

The only thing that's uncanny is that Demark has chosen different scaling factors for old Y and modern Y, so that both lines begin near the bottom left and end up near the top right just before the actual or expected crash. Do that for any two roughly linear trends, and you'll tend to get rough visual proportionality.

The mind expects trends and tries to find them in random fluctuations. Like the face of Jesus on a piece of burnt toast.

Do you wear pads on those knuckles? :)

Give the it's almost a century between the two, that is to be expected..

But you simply cannot deny that it is uncanny that the PROPORTIONALITY of the values are so closely aligned...

I can understand why you would not want to take it at face value...

Because it spells certain doom for Democrats in the mid-terms..

Which, of course, also explains why I LOVE it's face value... :D

All that aside, the simple fact that it goes so far back and is STILL (proportionally) accurate doesn't bode well for the wish that lightning won't strike twice...

Michale

I think the similarity between the modern and 1920s plots is largely an illusion caused by the arbitrary choice of Y axis scales, which in effect truncates the modern Y axis. This creates a visual impression that the modern market growth rate closely matches the Depression era growth rate over comparable months.

In fact, the 20s market valuation increased about 88% from start date to just before the crash, over the comparable period, while the modern market only increased 28% over the comparable months.

The resolution of the graphs isn't very good, but my rough count shows about 50% more peaks in the 20s than in the modern era. The fine structure of peaks and valleys doesn't look all that similar, black vs red.

I would not bet the farm on the basis of this graph.

Democrats retaking the House is a very long shot, but control of the Senate seems, to me, to hinge on the state of the US economy. Obama's popularity will rise or fall with the economic reports, but as far as the underlying dynamics go, "it's the economy stupid."

I was wondering what your thoughts are on this chart:

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/02/10/Photos/MG/MW-BU310_scary__20140210132547_MG.jpg?uuid=d13c2b42-9280-11e3-9759-00212803fad6

vis a vis your comment about it being the economy that will determine control of Congress after the mid-terms...

Michale

Once again, I am forced to ask...

If TrainWreckCare is so good, why do Democrats have to constantly lie to try and sell it??

Why did Obama and the Democrats blatantly lie over and over and over and over again to get it passed??

I don't expect an answer, because the only honest answer would have to be, "You are right, Michale. obamacare is NOT good for Americans".

And I know ya'all would rather gouge out yer eyes with a rusty spoon before you would admit THAT... :D

Michale

Yes I was.

And yes, most of them have come to pass..

Ironically enough, Iran's leadership is much like Israel's leadership, insofar as the power of the Presidency..

It's a ceremonial position.

When he is not being accused of rape, how often do we hear about "The President Of Israel"??

Barely at all. It's more about the Prime Minister of Israel. THAT is where the real power is..

So it is with Iran...

The President can't do squat without clearing it with the religious fanatics. They hold the REAL power in Iran.

And they haven't changed one iota..

One only has to read what is going on with Iran to know that..

But TheStig just narrated one. Maybe the "..." means "that Republicans will admit are real"?

That's ONE...

Where are all the rest??

You mentioned a couple people that were going to be a lot better off under the ACA...

Are they a couple more happy stories??

For every TS, I can show you a hundred, a THOUSAND Americans that were screwed over...

Even former SUPPORTERS of obamacare are starting to realize how bad it is.

What makes them wrong and ya'all right??

Michale

When historians of the 25th century telepathically communicate from their glass jars, they will characterize the 21st century as "The Era of Distractions."

You mean like the heads of Richard Nixon and Al Gore in Futurama?

Heh. Couldn't resist. "I have ridden the mighty Moon Worm" is the coolest thing any veep has ever said... sorry Liz...

:-)

Michale -

On Iran's leadership structure, weren't you warning of all sorts of dire things when Achmandinejad (sp?) was in the same position? I mean, you can't have it both ways, either he's powerless or not...

And yet, there are NO happy and sunny stories to speak of...

But TheStig just narrated one. Maybe the "..." means "that Republicans will admit are real"?

-CW

Michale

And yet, apparently you are..

Because MILLIONS of Americans were NOT able to keep their same plan, were NOT able to keep their same doctor.

Don't they count???

Shouldn't Obama and the entire Democrat Party be held accountable for their blatant lies??

Ya'all sure wanted to hold Bush and the Republicans accountable?

Why not clean ya'alls house first??

Michale

I hope you are still with us after the Mid-Terms. :D

It's gonna be a whole new world....

Michale

That's not logical..

Put another way...

If Democrats acts as evil and as corrupt as Republicans (and there are unequivocal FACTS to prove this is accurate) then the claim that Republicans are worse than Democrats is completely unsubstantiated and totally illogical..

What IS more logical and accurate is that Democrats simply tell you what you WANT to hear. You believe them and THAT is why you claim that Republicans are worse than Democrats.

Given the FACTS, which explanation is more logical?

Yours or mine?? :D

Basically, Romney Care is beginning to work as intended. The secret will leak out.

That's what ya'all have been saying since October.

And yet, we STILL find new and exciting horror stories about TrainWreckCare every day..

And yet, there are NO happy and sunny stories to speak of...

And yet, Obama has to BREAK THE LAW to extend mandate after mandate after mandate.

Obviously, it can't be THAT good if Obama has to lie and cheat and break the law over it, eh???

I mean, logically speaking...

Rouhani seems comparable to Deng in many respects.

Obviously you aren't too familiar with Iran's system of government..

Roujihadi has no more power to effect change in Iran than *I* have to effect change here in the US...

Once again, time will tell who is right and who is not.. With respect to both Iran *AND* TrainWreckCare..

But, considering what is happening in the here and now with both, I would say the facts are clear as to who is right and who isn't.. :D

Michale

And yet, the Left (nearly enmasse) supports the Commander In Chief unequivocally..

Why is that??

Glad you asked, if even rhetorically. Because of the Republican alternatives! At the ballot box (or chad dispenser) it always comes down to voting for "the least lizard" or in the case of 3 or more choices a lessor lizard with a good shot of defeating a greater, more scary lizard. To be interested in politics is to be familiar with disappointment....and settling.

(6,7)

Deng Xiaoping didn't hold supreme power either, but he was a member of the political elite and a reformer. A good conduit for negotiations - in both directions. Soft power is real power.

Rouhani seems comparable to Deng in many respects.

and back to (3)

I am willing to wager that Obama and the Dems are thinking, "If only we had delayed obamacare for a year"!!

No, they don't - the roll out came out a year before elections because everybody in the administration knew there would be problems with enrollment.

I've had a chance to actually use the healthcare insurance I bought through the national exchange, and it works fine! Kept my primary care physician, and every specialist I use has accepted my insurance after making one short phone call. Now, I'm just one anecdotal data point, but I doubt I'm completely atypical. I'm due for some minor surgery, so we'll see how that plays out. Basically, Romney Care is beginning to work as intended. The secret will leak out.

In the long run, I'm an insurance bargain... an Old Invincible!

Put another way..

Rhuajihadihoni has as much real power in the Iranian government as the Queen Of England has in the USA government. :D

Michale

{{chortle}} {{chortle}} :D

I just can't see this as a bad model for dealing with Iran.

IF Rhuajihadihoni was ACTUALLY Iran's leader, rather than just a figure head for the religious fanatics actually running Iran, then you would be correct.

But he ain't, so you ain't.. :D

The concerns raised by Scahill and Greenwald are the same ones that have concerned me about drone implemented assassination campaigns. It's ultimately counterproductive and a misuse of technology. Pretty much all the stuff in The Intercept article has been out in the open lit. for years.

And yet, the Left (nearly enmasse) supports the Commander In Chief unequivocally..

Why is that??

Because Party loyalty is more important than anything else...

If this is such "common knowledge" as you claim, why does Obama garner nearly universal support amongst the Left??

The ONLY possible explanation is because he has a '-D' after his name...

Michale

"third-world banana republic"

Not so fast...the US will have to import the bananas, causing further trade imbalance.

"a potential Deng Xiaoping, someone from within the ideological solidarity system who can, measure-by-stealthy-measure, lead his country away from ideology and toward internal reform"

I just can't see this as a bad model for dealing with Iran.

(4)

The concerns raised by Scahill and Greenwald are the same ones that have concerned me about drone implemented assassination campaigns. It's ultimately counterproductive and a misuse of technology. Pretty much all the stuff in The Intercept article has been out in the open lit. for years.

The NSA’s Secret Role in the U.S. Assassination Program
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/article/2014/02/10/the-nsas-secret-role/

It's kind of a long read and technical in some points..

But for those who actually have a MORAL argument against the Bush policies that Obama has adopted and expanded, it must be very frightening..

Of course, there are very VERY few on the Left who actually have a *moral* argument against those policies anymore...

Michale

That simply belies the severity of how bad the ACA really is..

Considering how much crap that Obama and the Dems put this country thru to keep obamacare intact and unchanged prior it it's disastrous roll-out, that makes the "train-wrecky-ness" all the more damaging to the Dem's chances in the coming mid-term..

I am willing to wager that Obama and the Dems are thinking, "If only we had delayed obamacare for a year"!! :D

bortaS bIr jablu'DI' reH QaQqu' nay'

:D

When historians of the 25th century telepathically communicate from their glass jars, they will characterize the 21st century as "The Era of Distractions."

I disagree. The 21st Century will be known as the era that the US became a third-world banana republic. And the era of throwing our allies under the bus and allying with the world's enemies..

Is Obama Quietly Courting A Coalition With Iran?
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/021014-689504-obama-shifting-mideast-alliance-to-iran.htm

Michale

Republicans will do everything possible to sabotage the economy, using Health Care as a useful distraction.

Immigration Reform is just another distraction fluttering about, trying to get noticed.

When historians of the 25th century telepathically communicate from their glass jars, they will characterize the 21st century as "The Era of Distractions."

Yea, let's see how DEMOCRATS like it when it's done to them!! :D

They would be heavy on enforcement

As it SHOULD be...

Let's face the facts. (And that is NOT an ugly word around here, appearances to the contrary)

Joe and Jane SixPack really don't care about immigration reform. They conclude (and I agree) that more should be done to take care of middle class Americans first and foremost..

The only people who care about immigration reform are Democrat "leaders" who want to mint fresh new Democrat voters and Republican "leaders" who want to pander to their corporate masters..

NO political "leader" really cares about the immigrants themselves...

It's all done to further their respective Party agenda..

And, as usual, it's ya'all and me and every day Americans who wind up getting screwed...

Michale