"There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics"
-Mark Twain

I am sure that "math" fits into that saying as well..

I prefer to stick with common sense.

And common sense tells me that, all things being equal, if you offer the people free money for NOT working, people will take it and NOT work..

And that is what obamacare is all about. As I mentioned, that is pretty what the entire foundation of the Democratic Party is all about.

Making people dependent on the government for survival..

It's why minorities flock to the Democratic Party and why they are suffering more because of it.

The unemployment rate for Black teens is 38%!!!!

Their unemployment rate is going UP while the rest of the country's is going down..

Michale

A little math is powerful stuff. It lets you decide if you want to believe Krauthammer or your own lying eyes.

I am just a lowly grunt.. A knuckle dragger...

Relativistic anecdotes are way over my pay grade..

Krauthammer explained it best to me..

In this country, you are free to choose NOT to work..

obamacare (nay, the entire Leftist agenda) says, "If you don't want to work, that's fine. Those who choose to work will support you."

Frankly, that sucks...

Michale

No, we are not in complete agreement - because you (and Fox News) don't acknowledge there is a difference between a disincentive and a relative disincentive. A disincentive is a negative incentive. A relative incentive is the difference between two incentives.

The primary incentive to work is the money it pays, possibly augmented by things like coffee and donuts (payments in kind).

AHC subsidies are payments in kind. These subsidies decline as a family moves up the income ladder. You can work this out using the handy calculator provided by the Kaiser Family Foundation and an Excel spreadsheet

http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/

For an average family of 4 choosing a silver policy, the Federal subsidy goes from $7790 at an income of $25K to $5640 at $45K to zero at $90K. That is a negative relative incentive as you move up the income scale, but you still maximize income by moving ever higher on the pay scale.

Not everybody chooses to maximize their income. There are potential downsides to making more money - longer hours, less interesting work, longer commute, relocation, etc. At some point, some, perhaps even many people choose to work at an income level that satisfies their needs. That's the "working somewhat less" part of the testimony.

I still call BS on Fox and their pseudo quotation.

Heheh ... have missed you & the folks here too, Michale.

I still read CW's posts regularly just lately haven't had as much time for commenting and hanging out.

-David

Michale

Now THAT was funny!! :D

Michale

- Click baiting headlines
- Facebook obligation to post
- Comment police
- Increased gossip and entertainment
- Increased coverage of the dumb Dem/Republican fight

In other words, its turned into a corporate media outlet where controversy is most important. There's still some good writers there (present company included) but it's surrounded by so much fluff that I don't go there nearly as much anymore.

I'd ask CW for thoughts but I don't want to get him in trouble :)

-David

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/02/06/james-carville-joining-fox-news-as-contributor/?intcmp=features

If the quintessential Democrat that is James Carville joins up.....

How bad can it be??

Let's face it. Most, if not all of the criticism of FNC is simply envy... :D

Michale

Source: Obama offers to stay away from some Senate races
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/06/politics/obama-democrat-senators/?hpt=hp_t2

The MidTerms are going to be a referendum on Obama..

Like it or not...

Michale

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=acbEw6iO_Fk

Have a ball....

Michale

The entire Left Wing/Democrat/Liberal/Progressive is BUILT on the concept of providing people an incentive NOT to work..

What's even MORE damning is that, once you are sucked in to the public dole, it's nearly impossible to get off public welfare..

I can personally attest to that.

All obamacare does is simply epitomize/further the same trend...

Michale

I saids it befores and I'll says it agains...

SPIN THAT! :D

Leave it to Chuck to lay it all out in words that even I can understand.. :D

Michale

This is EXACTLY what I am talking about.

Democrats simply CANNOT govern.. They mess up everything they touch..

And then they get caught in their incompetence, all they are good for is pointing fingers at anyone but themselves. Dems are great for causing the problems and fixing the blame.

Fixing the problem doesn't even enter their minds..

Pelosi blames JON STEWART (of all people!!) for the disastrous TrainWreckCare rollout..

Michale

So, we are in complete agreement.

TrainWreckCare creates a disincentive for people to work...

It gives people an INCENTIVE to stay home and live off the tax-payers..

Which is what I said at the start of all this..

So ya'alls claim of "out of context" or "doesn't really say that" et al is total bupkis.. :D

Glad we got THAT cleared up...

Michale

Yunno, Fox doesn't even bother me anymore. They're Fox. You know the asterisk is there. Fox News*.

It's much more concerning to me that The Washington Post was bought by Jeff Bezos. HuffPo was bought by AOL. CBS News (at least as judged by recent 60 Minutes) is now infotainment. And CNN lately has been trying to outdo Fox in many areas.

The younger generation doesn't watch any of this of course. But the older generation I'm afraid still thinks many of these outlets offer real news. Not news-o-tainment.

-David

A transcript and video of the Ryan-Elmsdorf exhange can be found at:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/370398/cbo-head-obamacare-creates-disincentive-people-work-andrew-johnson

The transcript provided by akadjian in comment 23 is accurate.

"By providing heavily subsidized health insurance to people with very low income, and then withdrawing those subsidies as income rises, the act creates a disincentive for people to work relative to what would have been the case in the absence of that act."

Fox News.com lops off both ends and adds entirely gratuitous punctuation (either a comma or a period) in two slight variations (see link in comment 12).

"The act creates a disincentive for people to work ,"

and

"The act creates a disincentive for people to work,"

These are not literal quotes, and don't signal that words have been taken out of Elmsdorf's mouth. Fox could have indicated this by using ellipses:

...."the act creates a disincentive for people to work"....

but that would give away the game.

It's easy to interpret the Fox version as meaning that subsidies give workers an incentive not work.

But listen to the last 5 seconds of the audio. Elmsdorf finishes up by clarifying that workers will respond to the disincentive by working somewhat less. There is more elaboration on what somewhat less means in the CBO report.

Fox uses blind quotes and pseudo quotes to trim the facts to fit Fox ideology all the time. They are masters of that black art. It's reprehensible, but it gets the drums beating.

Yea.. There are no DEMOCRAT millionaires, are there, eh? :^/

Let's face it, David.. The idea that Democrat Leaders are "warriors for the middle class" has been thoroughly and decidedly debunked..

Sure, they can talk the talk....

But recent history clearly shows that they are no where NEAR capable of walking the walk..

Michale

“Right now, Jesus himself couldn’t be the speaker and get 218 Republicans behind something, so I think Speaker Boehner is trying his best to come up with a plan that can get close to that.”

Rep. Patrick J. Tiberi (R-Ohio), a longtime John Boehner ally.

LOL ... ummm ... every day Republican millionaires?

You sure are sticking it to the elites, Mr. Michale.

:)

-David

The problem with your theory is that Obama has proven time and time and time again that he simply cannot be trusted..

His credibility is utterly shot..

From screwing over the Republicans over obamacare, to his "red line" in Syria to his "If You Like Your Plan" promise...

Obama simply CANNOT be trusted..

So, why should the GOP give anything???

It's not a question of partisan. It's simply a question of acknowledging the facts..

Facts have no partisan agenda..

It will be a GOP rout in November :D

I thought you hated it when people played politics. Looks like you just hate it when people other than Republicans play politics

I love it when snobbish elitests get their asses handed to them by every day Americans who are sick and tired of Democrat leadership looking out for corporations instead of the middle class...

If that makes me Right Wing, well that's your definition.. :D

Michale

I thought you hated it when people played politics. Looks like you just hate it when people other than Republicans play politics.

You're really hurting your "independent" credibility.

If the GOP were interested in working on fixing the problem (or any problem for that matter), they might have some credibility.

It's too bad they haven't done anything positive or even been interested in anything other than anti-government raging for years.

-David

Because there really ISN'T anything good in the *AFFORDABLE* Care Act other than in the feverish imaginations of some die hard Lefties who STILL believe Obama is the Messiah and the Messiah simply CANNOT do anything so moronic..

Isn't it interesting, Michale, that the "liberal" media isn't so liberal?

Yet, you STILL can't explain the lack of coverage for SO MANY things and the negative focus on anything Right Wing...

That interesting aside aside, the thing Dems need to do, instead of getting caught in the refute trap, is offer to fix the problem every time the GOP launches an attack.

As we have seen ample proof of, the Democrat fixes ALWAYS makes things much MUCH worse....

But, by all means. Let the Dems try and "fix" things..

It will be a GOP rout in November :D

Michale

Because you know the attacks are going to come in waves from now until November.

Focusing on fixing any problems would shift the emphasis back to a subject Republicans don't want, fixing any issues.

-David

- Brian Beutler, Salon

How is it that the "liberal media" left all of these good things about the ACA out of their reporting?

Isn't it interesting, Michale, that the "liberal" media isn't so liberal?

I think it's kind of funny though (and yes I have an odd sense of humor) that the media is so corporate-owned that all you have left to complain about are a few blogs.

Of course this bodes well for corporations and corporate government, so you should be happy! By and large corporations have succeeded in capturing the media.

I hope you're happy with your purchase.

-David

Michale

Thank you.

The quote AND the context are exactly as I stated..

CW,

So, I quote FNC and you quote HuffPo...

But FNC is a real news outlet and HuffPo is.. well.. HuffPo.. :D

Speak2,

Conservatives have completely convinced themselves that this is guaranteed to happen, but I think they're mistaken.

Based on what??

The smooth sailing that has been obamacare to date??

obamacare epitomizes the saying "Whatever CAN go wrong, WILL go wrong" to a tee...

And, the end of March is fast approaching. :D

Michale

But, these hours aren't going away. That is, the labor-need is still there. Won't these positions be taken by 20- or 30-somethings who haven't been able to find work (or even 50-somethings who find the job market especially frustrating, but need the paycheck).

Here's more Elmendorf quotes from the hearing:

But in a hearing Wednesday, CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf explained how that is not so: His office's report, he noted, actually says that Obamacare produces a net increase in employment, and cuts the deficit.

. . .

"There is a critical difference between people who would like to work and can’t find a job, or have a job that is lost for reasons beyond their control, and people who choose not to work," Elmendorf said.

"If someone comes up to you and says, 'Well, the boss said I’m being laid off because we don’t have enough business to pay me,' that person feels bad about that and we sympathize with them for having lost their job," he continued. "If someone comes to you and says, 'I’ve decided to retire,' or 'I’ve decided to stay home and spend more time with my family,' or 'I’ve decided to spend more time doing my hobby' –- they don’t feel bad about it, they feel good about it. And we don’t sympathize, we say congratulations. And we don’t say they’ve lost their job, we say they’ve chosen to leave their job."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/05/obamacare-jobs_n_4732344.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

-CW

“By providing heavily subsidized health insurance to people with very low income, and then withdrawing those subsidies as income rises, the act creates a disincentive for people to work relative to what would have been the case in the absence of that act. By providing a subsidy, these people are better off, but they do have less of an incentive to work.” - Douglas Elmendorf, House Budget Committee

Also for full context, he is referring to people moving from part-time jobs to full-time jobs.

Basically, the incentive would drop off if they worked more.

If this is the case, why not gradually role off the subsidy as people work more?

It would be an easy fix.

Easy, that is, if Congress was willing to work on it instead of using it to run for election in 2014.

:)

-David

Newsflash for Gracie..

Premiums are ALREADY going up..

That's Obama's and the Democrat's fault..

Sounds to me like Dems are laying the groundwork to blame the GOP for rising premiums when, in fact, it's all due to TrainWreckCare... :D

Most Americans are smarter than Democrats... :D

Michale

It has???

Where???

I mean, besides HuffPo and DailyKos??

The report AND the quote are pretty damning...

Do you know how I know??

Because the White House (and the Left in general) are falling all over themselves to TRY and debunk it..

Up to AND INCLUDING simply denying it all happened.. :D

Michale

Here are some quotes from conservatives cautioning the GOP against abolishing risk corridors:

Avik Roy, Manhattan Institute, defending risk corridors: “You’re going to have to have a transitional period, because you have all these new people coming into the market. You don’t know exactly how it’s going to turn out. If they hadn’t had a risk corridor, the insurers would never have participated in the exchanges, because they would have had said this is too risky for us. So they had to have some mechanism like this for the transition, but over time as insurers get a better feel for who is actually enrolling in the exchanges, they can price the products accordingly and eventually the risk corridors go away.”

Yevgeniy Feyman, Manhattan Institute, defending risk corridors: “One part of the law that’s come under fire recently are the ‘risk corridors.’… However, … it makes it difficult for conservatives to offer a replacement plan of their own… Any conservative reform plan for universal coverage will have to use similar methods. … Railing against risk corridors now will make them a hard sell further down the road. Risk adjustment mechanisms get you the buy-in of insurers, but they also help keep premiums at manageable levels while insurers develop enough experience to properly price plans on their own. This helps encourage people to enroll in these plans, which in turn helps insurers develop the necessary pricing experience – resulting in a virtuous cycle.”

Grace Marie-Turner, Galen Institute: “One of the things that is going to happen is that if they get rid of this so-called bailout money, is that premiums are going to go up .. So if premiums go up next year, whose fault is it going to be? The Republicans’ fault. Why would they want to get themselves in that position?”

-CW

In deference to sensibilities more easterly than me, I will not tell you what the temperature is right outside my window right now.

:-)

But thanks for the kind words!

Hawk Owl [2] -

Also thanks for kind words. And good to see you -- haven't seen you around for a while!

:-)

Michale [3] -

For whatever reason, the rumor today is that Boehner and his merry band of House GOPers are backing off on the whole "taking hostages" thing entirely. Don't know if that's any more true than the rumor which sparked this article, but had to throw it out there for the purposes of discussion. I can find a link if requested, HuffPost's reporting on it today...

As for the CBO thing, it is being adequately debunked and intelligently analyzed in many other places out on the intertubes today, so I'm going to refrain. At least until Friday...

-CW

For good measure, here's a few other good moral arguments the Dems could use:

“Everybody should have insurance. They should pay what they can afford to pay.” - Mitt Romney

"The real trick is to retain what is best in American health care while correcting its deficiencies and expanding upon its indisputable benefits. Massachusetts has done just that.” - Robert Moffitt, Heritage Foundation

“The Pac-Man of health insurance takes more and more, and every year roads, bridges, schools, higher education have to go down unless you want to keep raising taxes. That’s why we decided to tackle health care.” - Timothy Murphy, the architect of Romney’s Massachusetts policy

One of the very real problems w/ the previous insurance system was that it was so geared towards providing policies for corporations that hardly anyone outside corporations purchased policies.

The ACA opens up those same benefits to everyone on individual exchanges.

The tide is starting to turn and Republicans may regret using this as their single issue in this year's elections.

-David

Let's face it. The only reason you are calling it into question is NOT because it's from FNC, but rather because ya'all don't like it..

If FNC was saying something ya'all like, you would quote it til the cows come home..

AND have done so on many occasions.. :D

Michale

Unless Elmendorf uses incomplete punctuation, I have to think you are quoting Fox News, not Elmendorf.

It would be more sporting to have done:

"Obamacare is a dis-incentive for people to work" -Fox News.

or

"Obamacare is a dis-incentive for people to work"

- attributed to Elmendorf by Fox News

It's not easy to find what Elmendorf said in context, since the CBO report is 180 + pages and not easily searchable.

The quote was from the CBO Director's own testimony..

Unless you are accusing FNC of actually doctoring the testimony...

It's funny how only the facts ya'all don't like are always "out of context"...

The CBO Director stated that obamacare creates a dis-incentive for people to work.

This is fact...

That is all I am saying...

Remember. Your own opinions you can have. Not your own facts...

Michale

If Doctors are not in Network because they don't like obamacare, guess what?

That's a problem with obamacare..

Even if you like your insurance now, you may not like it next year when your provider drop your primary physician or a key specialist next year.

EXACTLY..

And why are providers dropping physicians or specialists??

Because they don't conform with obamacare..

Once again, the problem is obamacare..

The solution has been always the same - pay higher premiums to get a wider network, or go out of pocket.

But that "solution" would not have been necessary if it were not for obamacare.

THAT is my whole point..

obamacare was supposed to REDUCE costs, not RAISE them...

That right there means obamacare is Epic Fail...

m (10) Little help? Like a complete reference for the blind quote? Usually I can Google one, but not this time. I'd like a little context.

So would I?? :D

Which quote??

The CBO guy???

The full quote was actually

"The act creates a disincentive for people to work"
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/02/05/budget-office-chief-obamacare-creates-disincentive-to-work/

Michale

His quote (8) is going to be some out-of-context nonsense that one of the rightie spinners put somewhere for folks like Michale to amplify around the web.

He could read the CBO report itself and compare it to the nonsense that he's swallowing and repeating but he won't. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45010-Outlook2014.pdf

He could read analysis from sources other than rightwing mouthpieces, but he won't.

He'll just keep repeating rightie talking points.

Finding in net-work doctors is an insurance problem, not an ObamaCare problem. Even if you like your insurance now, you may not like it next year when your provider drop your primary physician or a key specialist next year. It's been this way for decades.

The solution has been always the same - pay higher premiums to get a wider network, or go out of pocket.

Go ahead.. Spin that.. :D

Michale

That right there is why obamacare will NEVER succeed..

Because, if someone has to lie, blatantly lie, repeatedly lie and constantly lie for months, for YEARS, to put a program in place...

Then honestly.... How good can that program be??

Michale

And the hits just keep on coming....

If only someone had promised that people who LIKED their plan and LIKED their Doctors could have KEPT their plan and KEPT their Doctors..

Oh... wait...

Michale

When it says things the White House likes..

If the work these people are giving up is vital, other people will step in to take up the slack. Maybe a higher wage will have to be offered to entice them.

But THAT is the point.

THAT is why people are losing their jobs and losing hours. Because the companies DON'T WANT TO PAY...

In answer to your anticipated response, Yes. That means the companies will go under because they can't meet the needs of their business.

And then even MORE people will be thrown out of work.

All because of Obamacare...

Affordable Health Care is based on market principles. Market principles are based on choice, given choices, people game the system.

Even MORE so than they did BEFORE obamacare..

So, the claim that obamacare is better than what was in place is utter felgercarb...

And the 4th (or 5th) shoe (insurance companies actually getting paid) STILL hasn't dropped and won't for about another month...

Michale

Milbank's article is pretty low caliber ammo IMHO. It's not ammunition at all, it's more like dropping leaflets (a useful substitute for TP as one of my uncles used to say).

That's 2.3 million FULL TIME job equivalents, not jobs. Most of CBO's predicted equivalents are people choosing to work less because they no longer have to choose to work more hrs to get health care. 2.3 million aren't being thrown out of work, which is the impression many are trying to tie onto the CBO report.

If the work these people are giving up is vital, other people will step in to take up the slack. Maybe a higher wage will have to be offered to entice them.

Here's another thing to consider. Since the bulk of the full time equivalents are coming from part time hrs, far more than 2.3 million workers are likely breathing a sigh of relief. If the average overage is say 25%, that would translate to 9.2 million happy people, times the number of total people is the happy nuclear family! 36 million? Maybe it's an accident, but this actually seems pretty brilliant politics.

Not only doesn't this WSJ dog hunt, it bites its handler on the leg!

Affordable Health Care is based on market principles. Market principles are based on choice, given choices, people game the system.
A single payer plan would have avoided a lot of the marginal game playing we will see under OC, but that's not the route that was taken.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obamacares-scorekeepers-deliver-a-game-changer/2014/02/04/9ab8d34c-8de7-11e3-98ab-fe5228217bd1_story.html

They have much better ammunition with which to finish off TrainWreckCare

Michale

Thanks for your excellent, and amazingly rapid debunking.