Gotta agree with that.

The guy is a feminists' worst monster and yet, Lefty women flock to him like he is Christ, Einstein and Bon Jovi all rolled into one..

That's why I find the Left's accusations of the Right's "War on Women" so hilarious...

The Party Of Weiner, Spitzer and Clinton is going to point at the RIGHT's disrespecting of women??

Seriously!!????

Michale
110

I regret it took me so long to find the archives. They really put Obama's numbers in perspective and clear up some misconceptions I've been carrying about in my mental baggage.

Clinton's numbers are a revelation. Reagan is said to be the Teflon President. Not so, Clinton is the Teflon King. Teflon II! Or whatever Teflon they sell these day (its very good). Nothing stuck to him. Not Lewinsky, not Impeachment. He begins his second term more popular than when he began his first, and ends his second more popular still! That is political genius.

Stuff did stick to Reagan - recession in term 1, Iran/Contra in II. But, he always washed the muck away. He's more like the Orbit Gum President...."dirty mouth - clean it up (insert sparkle effect on front tooth). Again, political genius, but of a different sort. Bonus points for the fact that he is said to have been well into early stage dementia by his second term. Then again, dementia COULD actually be an asset politics, where more mistakes are probably made by over thinking than by not thinking, or not at least not saying, much at all.

When the website was a train wreck, did vulnerable Democrats distance themselves from the website??

No..

They distanced themselves from obamacare..

Ergo, obamacare = website

"Simple logic"
-Admiral James T Kirk, STAR TREK V: The Undiscovered Country

:D

Michale

WOW...

THERE's tortured prose....

But what you ignore are the pending security issues. The millions and millions more cancellations. And a whole host of other problems that aren't even indicated yet.

My bust....

Michale

The hell he ain't..

He is running for his legacy...

Marketing. Politicians know marketing

At least we agree on one thing.

It IS marketing.. It's ALL marketing..

As opposed to a program that is actually GOOD for Americans..

DEMS can start the healing by working on that inequity, but this is going to be a very small part of the youth demographic.

Assumes facts not in evidence...

But you are correct. Dems SHOULD start working on that inequity...

But they won't.. Because it means less $$$$ for their corporate cronies...

Remember.. A politician, ANY politician (Dem or GOP) cares about their own power and position first..

The needs of their constituents come a very very distant second. Or, more often, an even MORE distant third...

"Warriors for the Middle Class" my ass....

Michale

That's because for most readers, it's "Obama Uber Alles"... :D

Where is it written that the program has to operate in the black from day one? How many large start ups do that?

If you want to compare obamacare to a normal private market "startup" then I am game..

A private market startup that had the type of roll out that obamacare had would have already closed up shop..

Anyway, not a done deal, but not a train wreck. More like a hefty delay of schedule.

I know you can't concede it's a train wreck. Your ideology won't let you..

But what you ignore is the pending security issues. The millions and millions more cancellations. And a whole host of other problems that aren't even indicated you.

Don't feel bad. The rest of Weigantia is right along with you..

http://publicintellectual.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/ostrich.jpg

No one wants to talk about the bad news..

"Gee!! I wonder why that is!!!"
-Kevin Spacey, THE NEGOTIATOR

I guess that I am just the Weigantian Cassandra... :D

But here's the thing. In the last few months, my prediction record has been perfect...

Michale

Thanks for the kind words. And thanks for plugging the "Obama Poll Watch" site's charts -- I have to manually update them every month, so I'm glad someone is getting some use out of them!

:-)

-CW

(10)

"For all intents and purposes, the website IS the law.."

Maybe I'm wrong but I think the above statement is likely to strike most readers as Cocoa for Cuckoo Poops. I mean, if Obama launches a mirror site created by an independent team of 20 something gaming geeks (maybe not such a bad idea), do we, for all intents and purposes, have 2 sets of Affordable Health Care Laws?

"obamacare needs at LEAST 40% to be viable.."

Forty% strikes me as a suspiciously round threshold, but yes, the plan needs participation by a large fraction of healthy young uns to be fiscally viable. Two points:

Where is it written that the program has to operate in the black from day one? How many large start ups do that?

Signup is not voluntary. There are tax penalties if you don't have an exemption. Penalties start small in the first year, and gradually get about expensive as just buying the goddamn insurance by year 3. The fact that this penalty ramps up is evidence the writers of the law didn't expect full participation immediately. They are nudging people in, with more elbows thrown in to pick up the reluctant as time marches on.

(11) I believe the Haavaad poll. Obama has irked an important part of his constituency...but wait, he isn't running for anything. Has the GOP picked them up? DEMS have some work to do, but I don't think it will be that much of a lift. Marketing. Politicians know marketing.

In point of fact, a small percentage of the youth demographic is squeezed by the AHCA, and deserves relief...single, self employed individuals (no company health care subsidy) without dependents making over (or close to) $40K, but not the really big bucks) residing in high cost of living communities. Health insurance will take a big bite out of their disposable income. DEMS can start the healing by working on that inequity, but this is going to be a very small part of the youth demographic.

12) There don't seem to be shortages of companies offering up AHCA Gold, Silver Bronze plans at with lower than expected premiums. What's gone is the high risk plans, with high deductibles, low caps and plenty of exclusions. The latter was fully intended by the new regulations.

Anyway, not a done deal, but not a train wreck. More like a hefty delay of schedule.

When the website was a train wreck, were Democrats distancing themselves from the website??

No..

They were distancing themselves from obamacare...

obamacare IS the website, for all intents and purposes...

Michale

I am further constrained to point out that if Obama and the Left continue to unfairly vilify the Insurance companies, they might decide that it ain't worth it..

We are already seeing this happen with their "Thanks but no thanks" response to Obama's offer to "look the other way" and let the Insurance Companies break the law...

Michale

That's why obamacare is destined to fail..

Obama has lost the ONE demographic that fueled his ascension...

People can only be lied to so much before they start getting pissed off...

Michale

Yes there is..

.... plus MANY incidents coming that will likely decrease downward momentuum.

For example....???

First, the law has little chance of being repealed during Obama's term. The law is durable.

I'll concede the first part. The latter lacks evidence..

Second, the website is not the law, it's just a modern efficiency for implementing the law.

Semantics..

For all intents and purposes, the website IS the law..

If the website fails, the law does to..

"A difference which makes no difference IS no difference."
-Spock

Third, the Insurance companies and big Health providers basically have a lot to gain from the law. Government subsidy money will flow into for profit sectors that wasn't there before.

They do if the law works as planned..

Apparently, that possibility (website/law working as planned) is by NO means a forgone conclusion....

Only 22% of young people (a VITAL demographic) say they will sign up for obamacare..

obamacare needs at LEAST 40% to be viable...

Fourth, while there are both winners in the AHC game, the winners are many and have a lot to gain, the losers are few and have relatively little to lose long term.

Unless you happen to be one of the losers..

"Hay!! That thing killed a civilian!!!"
"We project an 11% collateral damage rate. Acceptable."
"Yea... Unless you happen to be part of that 11%!!"
-Blue Thunder

Fifth, Social Security and Medicare precedents.

Now HERE you are on somewhat more solid ground..

However, I submit that SS and Medicare were penny ante stuff compared to what obamacare is trying to do..

Further, what worked 50-60-80 years ago does not necessarily mean it will work in the here and now...

Finally, SS and Medicare were passed with complete bi-partisan support where BOTH Partys had a stake in making it work.. One Party did not have a vested interest in making sure either program failed...

obamacare was passed solely and completely by Democrats.. And, to further their agenda, Republicans have a vested interest and incentive to insure that obamacare fails..

Ergo, while your comparison is somewhat close, it does not entitle you to a cigar...

Final thought. You can make a barn door fly with enough power, big enough control surfaces and a skilled pilot with good reflexes. Let's see how good Obama's reflexes are.

Not good enough to pull out of this nosedive..

Time will tell... But, once again, I have to point to my recent track record..

It's been stellar... :D

Michale

I'm basing it on the historical record as compiled by CW. Presidential popularity polls are volatile - there is a lot of variation around the apparent trend line. There are only 4 modern precedents for Obama...25% of 'em lead a charmed life (Clinton)...25% recover from dropping off a popularity cliff (Reagan)...50% crash (Nixon and Bush) 50% of the crashes burn (Nixon). As we say in the statistical trade, them's the effin numbers. Past (aggregated) popularity polls have little power to predict future popularity trends. It's basically a dead end, the polls are snapshots of a complicated movie. There is value in documenting this, so CW has NOT been wasting his valuable time.

Your last paragraph is not a converse of the prior one

"Barring an unknown event, there is nothing in Obama's future that would indicate his numbers will turn around.."

...yeah, but why there is nothing in Obama's future to indicate his numbers won't turn around?

"Conversely, there are MANY incidents coming that will likely increase the downward momentum...

... plus MANY incidents coming that will likely decrease downward momentuum.

The above is just a form of special pleading. A heads I win, tails you lose that doesn't survive inspection.

While I don't think popularity polls have much predictive power, some fundamentals suggest AHC has a reasonably good chance of success.

First, the law has little chance of being repealed during Obama's term. The law is durable.

Second, the website is not the law, it's just a modern efficiency for implementing the law. It wasn't ready for general release, but Obama has time to fix it because the law is durable. He can buy the resources needed to fix it. He can buy time by selectively relaxing deadlines.

Third, the Insurance companies and big Health providers basically have a lot to gain from the law. Government subsidy money will flow into for profit sectors that wasn't there before.

Fourth, while there are both winners in the AHC game, the winners are many and have a lot to gain, the losers are few and have relatively little to lose long term. Yeah, some people lost a policy, some people liked the policy they lost. Guess what. This group lost policies all the time. The market was volatile before Obama Care shook it up. The afflicted will buy new policies of roughly equal value, but with less opportunity to assume very high risk at lower cost. The under insured are a larger group, and they stand to gain a lot. This will be the bigger voting block.

Fifth, Social Security and Medicare precedents.

I could go on, but let me just say I give AHC a 75% chance of success. That's my Bayesian probability of belief, not a formal analysis of underlying probability distributions, which I strongly expect are unknowable.

Final thought. You can make a barn door fly with enough power, big enough control surfaces and a skilled pilot with good reflexes. Let's see how good Obama's reflexes are.

Yea...

That's just what the Right said when Bush started his downward slide.. :D

I understand WHY you are saying what you are saying...

But it seems you are basing it on nothing more than what you WANT to happen, rather than what the facts say...

Barring an unknown event, there is nothing in Obama's future that would indicate his numbers will turn around..

Conversely, there are MANY incidents coming that will likely increase the downward momentum...

Michale

There have been 9 presidents since Eisenhower.

Five of them have been reelected to a second term. Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment with plunging popularity. Clinton survived impeachment with a strong upward trend in popularity throughout his 2nd term. Dubya trended down, down, down throughout his 2nd term. Reagan's charm index plummeted midway through his 2nd term, but he regained all the lost ground by the time he retired.

The volatility around the trend line doesn't seem to have changed much in the post Eisenhower presidencies. Reading Obama's fate from the current tea leaves seems dubious. Patience Grasshoppers. Oh, and nice work CW!!!

Let's talk poll numbers..

In Ohio, 57% say Obama is not trustworthy.. Only 35% of Ohioans approve of obamacare. Remember that Ohio is a bellwether state that gave Obama 51% of the vote in the last POTUS election. As Ohio goes, so goes the country...

A Quinnipiac poll, right before Turkey Day, gave Obama a 34% approval rating. His lowest rating ever in that poll... 61% disapprove of Obama's job..

In a Colorado poll last month, a 36% approval rating. Lowest in THAT poll as well..

No matter how ya'all wanna slice it up, Obama's numbers are going down...

ANOTHER prediction I made that is coming to fruition...

Michale

THAT is exactly why Obama's numbers are tanking..

You can attack the source all you want..

But the simple fact is, it's the political reality in the here and now..

Ya'all (and Democrats) ignore it at yer own peril...

Michale

About the only good news for Obama is that he hasn't dropped below 40% as I predicted he......

Deee... Deee... Daaaa.... Daaaa.... Deeee... Daaaa.... Deeee.....Daaaa.....

THIS JUST IN....

Looks like my dead on ballz accurate streak continues...

OBAMA APPROVAL DROPS BELOW 40%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

39.8% to be exact...

It's tough being correct so often.... :D

Here's another prediction.. No one is going to want to address the fact that Obama is now entering THE BUSH ZONE

:D

Michale

:-)

-CW

December's shaping up to be a bit better than November, but that's about as far as I'll go at this point...

:-)

-CW