i think that's a good short term for situations in which the Tea----ers are being melded with the "Traditional GOP" -- but doesn't work when one is writing about them as an insurgent group within the larger GOP -- make sense?

While the "it's her time" slogan does have PR merit, the "it's her turn" comes across (at least to me) as petulant and childish.

We don't elect a POTUS just because it's their "turn"..

We elect a POTUS based on job qualifications and experience..

At least, we DID until the 2008 Elections...

Michale

Just posted a picture as a comment to this Thursday's column ("Will It Be Enough?"). Check it out!

Michale [10] -

I agree with nypoet [11]. A subdued primary fight, with lots of jockeying for 2020 if Hillary should falter, and also lots of "wouldn't I make a good veep!" subtleties.

While Biden and Warren are who is being discussed now, I'd bet that there will be a younger up-n-comer who will make a name for him/herself in the primary.

You are correct to point out the previous shortcomings of the "Hillary's inevitable" thing, but I doubt she'd be dumb enough to hire Mark Penn twice.

nypoet22 [13] -

You nailed it. Whether overt or grassroots, the two themes of her campaign will indeed be "it's her turn" and "it's her time". Excellent comment.

-CW

I disagree..

I think that if the GOP just does things that don't HURT every day Americans, they'll come out way ahead of the game...

That's how far Democrats have lowered the bar...

In other words, if the GOP can just take to heart the first words of the Hippocratic Oath, FIRST, Do No Harm then that will be a net positive for the GOP..

Michale

If this is so, look for the midterms to reflect this attitude.. In other words, if the GOP makes a good showing in the mid-terms, whoever the Dem nominee is, is going to have an uphill battle...

i wouldn't bet on either being the case. then again, i wouldn't bet against them either. at the moment i think it's about fifty-fifty, and depends a lot on whether or not the republicans finally get their act together and produce something positive.

JL

They said the same thing about Obama albeit for different reasons..

My guess is that Joe SixPack might be just sick and tired of Democrats in general and will likely give the other side of the aisle a shot..

If this is so, look for the midterms to reflect this attitude.. In other words, if the GOP makes a good showing in the mid-terms, whoever the Dem nominee is, is going to have an uphill battle...

Michale

perhaps, but i think at that time it was more grudging, like the inevitability of mitt romney in the 2012 primaries. obama's success in the 2008 primaries was partly due to his own charisma and oratory, but also partly due to a serious undertone of resistance within the democratic party to another clinton administration (especially so soon after the last). assuming she does decide to run, i think the overwhelming sentiment on the left is that it's not only "her turn" but also "her time."

JL

Perhaps..

But that "real inevitably" was also present during the 2008 primary..

Granted, Democrats are unlikely to have another "Messiah"-type candidate again..

The danger for Democrats is to avoid doing to Hillary what they did to Obama...

Making her larger than life and building up expectations so high that she will find them impossible to meet...

Michale

perhaps a small skirmish, but this feels more like real inevitability than armchair prognostication. there are too many dems with regrets over not choosing hillary the last time she ran.

JL

You don't think there will be a primary fight?? Biden wants it too....

I look forward to your commentary on the subject.. :D

Michale

I think I got "flibbertigibbets" from Rogers and Hammerstein ("Oklahoma!" maybe? "The Music Man" perhaps?). I did take the time to look it up in the dictionary, though, just to check:

"a silly restless person"

Seemed to fit...

As for the Dems, well, I'm saving that for another column. Short answer: Hillary runs, everyone else in the race is essentially running for her veep slot.

I will try to get the photos up tomorrow, thanks! And congratulations again!

TheStig -

Excellent points about being the perceived frontrunner. I still remember the spectacular collapse of Giuliani. Christie could go that route, it's certainly a possibility.

Paula -

The best short term I've heard yet is the "GOTP" because it accurately describes the meld of the Grand Old Party and the Tea Party. Maybe GOTPers?

:-)

-CW

"Fellow Americans" :D

But I realize that might be just a bit of a bridge too far..

I heartily acknowledge that you have, at least, taken a first step... :D

Michale

"It just seems to me that we here in Weigantia are on a much higher plane of existence, mentally wise, and shouldn't have to stoop to denigrating people with cutsey stoopid takes on their names to make our arguments work."

In that spirit I will henceforth avoid using the phrase "teabagger" as I, too, value the quality discourse that typically rules here.

Although, one last time, "TEABAGGER, TEABAGGER, TEABAGGER!"

OK, its out of my system.

But I need a new name. I just can't call them "Tea Partiers". I'll call them "Tea----ers". The reader can fill in the blanks for him/herself.

It seems to me that Christie's biggest problem is that he is simply the favorite during the insanely early speculation phase of the 2016 Presidential Election. Somebody has to be early front runner, but preferably, it's somebody other than yourself.

Being the early frontrunner makes it easy for backbencher types like Gingrich, or whoever that nine-nine-nine guy was, to hit softballs out of the park. Such two week wonders may not stop you from getting the nomination, but will prevent you from winning the presidency. Just ask Mitt.

There are going to be plenty of Christie softballs to hit.

One is that Christie has been very accommodating to one of the more corrupt Democratic political machines in the country. Establishment establishment establishment. He works and plays well with what many fair minded observers consider an intelligent form of pond scum.

Second, some of his financial habits seem a bit suspect. Possibly illegal. Is there are Ford in his future? A 47% video? It only takes one.

Third, Chrisitie isn't so much charismatic as he is skilled at self promotion. These are not quite the same things. As many have noted, there are plenty of non-charismatic videos of Christie in action, without the polish provided by editing and carefully scripted events.

All these things are common in candidates, and they can be managed, but it's so much harder for the early front runner. Christie's best move might be to enter a monastery some place very far away for the next couple of years.

I emailed you a couple pics as requested from the previous commentary..

I have to correct the name however.

It turns out my daughter changed her mind at the last moment..

So, say hello to CONNER Michale Worley...

Sorry, David.. :D

Michale

Is that an industry term?? :D

Tell me, CW.. Keeping in mind how poisonous the 2008 Dem Primary was, what are your thoughts about how the Dem primary will shape up??

Paula,

the Teabaggers

Ya know, I read an awful lot of posts from Right wing fanatics when they call the Left cutsey names like "Obummer" and "Odumbo" and "Dumbocrats" and "DemoRATS" and "Libtards" and I always think to myself, I think "Self, it's remarkable that these people can't make a coherent argument without lapsing into childish namecalling"...

It just seems to me that we here in Weigantia are on a much higher plane of existence, mentally wise, and shouldn't have to stoop to denigrating people with cutsey stoopid takes on their names to make our arguments work..

No offense intended whatsoever, but you really degrade your argument when you stoop to the level of Right wingers and their childish name-calling.

Just my 2cents delivered w/o rancor whatsoever..

Michale

Just finished answering comments back to about last Thursday. So go check it out, especially the challenge I toss down for everyone's 7th grade music list (in response to a nypoet22 comment....).

:-)

-CW

All good points. The national stage is a lot different than just about any state stage, and some do indeed falter.

As for the bullying thing, you may be right. But Christie's made it this far, and I'm not so certain he won't learn to keep it in check a bit on the national stage. Unlike, say, Herman Cain (who was pretty much guaranteed to say something ridiculous sooner or later) or maybe Newt Gingrich.

The Tea Partiers splitting off may happen, but if it does I am thinking (based on nothing but gut feeling, mind you) that it'll happen later -- 2020, perhaps. I think the Tea Partiers will be convinced to vote GOP one last time, no matter how dispirited they are. How Christie turns the "traitor" thing around: "Who else are you going to vote for ? Hillary?"

I could see a split ticket, or maybe I should say a "balanced" ticket -- Christie/Paul, perhaps (or maybe even Paul/Christie) -- with one tea partier and one establishment candidate.

But I really doubt the Tea Party is going to give up entirely on the Republican Party next time around. I think for them to get that despondent will take at least one more presidential cycle. That Republicans lose. Maybe that's just me, though...

-CW

I'm not convinced that Christie will stick to his "this is the way I am" persona. He's already doing some backpedaling and waffling: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/12/1255059/-Chris-Christie-won-t-play-those-Washington-games-except-when-he-does

It also depends on how many more bullying incidents come to light -- if you remember he was captured screaming at a teacher a day or two before the election.

Finally, it depends on how beaten down the Teabaggers are two years or so from now. If they remain defiant, Christie will face the exact same problem Romney couldn't beat -- how to be simultaneously insane for teabaggers and reasonable for "moderates". And he will enter the contest being considered a traitor by his right flank and will have to turn that around - how?

I think a more likely scenario is that we'll have a split ticket situation happening, with Christie possibly appealing to un-teabaggers, while one of the contenders -- Paul or Cruz -- siphons off the baggers. It's quite possible baggers will push for a 3rd party, or Paul will run as a libertarian. Which would be just fine and greatly appreciated from my side of the field.

IF, IF, Hillary gets good advice, she'll be given opportunities to weaken any/all repub contenders. Christie may regret that he didn't have to test his chops in this election in order to see how he'd stand up to any kind of tough or charismatic Dem opponent.