There's a very easy way to avoid this...

Don't commit a felony.. :D

Michale...

It's not as bad as I thought. It sounds like only Virginia has life-long disenfranchisement with no way for the felon to do anything about it. Florida and Kentucky also have fairly extreme felony disenfranchisement laws.

Rasmussen: Romney +1 (actual -2)
PPP: Obama +2 (actual +2)

- Colorado (+6, actual result +4)
- Iowa (+2, actual result +6)
- Wisconsin (+3 actual +7)
- Ohio (+5, actual +2 and counting)
- Florida (+1, actual +1)
- Virginia (+4, actual +4)

I remember reading the twitter reaction when PPP published their Colorado and Virginia polls. People were going crazy! 'No way Obama wins Colorado/Virginia that easy/you're biased/you're going to be a laughing stock'!

Rasmussen (the 'most accurate pollster' according to the right LOL) had their 2012 FINAL POLLS saying Romney was ahead/tied:
- Colorado (+3, actual result -4)
- Iowa (+1, actual result -6)
- Wisconsin (tied, actual -7)
- Ohio (tied, actual -2 and counting)
- Florida (+2, actual -1)
- Virginia (+2, actual -3)

But anyone who follows things knew they weren't the 'most accurate pollster' the right claimed. Their national result in 2008 was close, sure, but their State polls (which is what really matters) were -4.6% to Obama on average in 2008. Looks like they may have topped this inaccuracy even more in 2012!

Of course, this is all part of the large dose of reality that smacked the right in the face yesterday. It will probably be forgotten in a little while and Rasmussen will return to being the 'most accurate pollster' because... well because reality and facts don't matter to them! Facts can be disgarded again in the future when they don't like them...

Nice graph of Rasmussen results: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/11/rasmussen_fail.jpg

Outstanding infographic.

The other big loser of the day was Gallup ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/us/politics/in-national-polling-its-gallup-vs-the-rest.html?_r=1&

-David

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/pundit_scorecard_checking_pundits_predictions_against_the_actual_results.html?wpisrc=most_viral

Ding, Ding, Ding....

WE HAVE A WINNER!!!

The problem is where sites are in $ and some in GBP. They set it up with awful FX rates so you lose a lot on the rate...

But yeh the arbitrage on the election was unreal, In-Trade was a lunacy market. At one point In-Trade had Romney at 33% and he was LITERALLY half this at 16% on UK sites. So you could bet Obama on In-Trade, Romney on the other sites and bank the 16% return. Insane!

The Democrat machines are at risk, as well. Those of the neo-liberal "public private partnership" ilk, which enriches those on both sides of that partnership at the expense of the common good, will not as easily get their slam dunk boondoggles.

Those for whom invasive nannyism is all right because they (and the lobbyists from whom they take their money and their tips) Know Best will have to compete with direct electoral matters which are beyond their control.

It's small stuff, local stuff. But stuff with more than just local significance, because the organization and the electoral composition is not confined to Colorado. Read at: http://www.salon.com/2012/11/07/progressives_win_big_in_colorado/

I guess I missed the Tea Party in my list of people to thank for these sort of results, although they were included in the 'reality challenged' people.

More or less is not the real problem.

Rather, it's the lack of leaders anywhere in the political spectrum who remember that government is supposed to promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty, and spend money as though it were their own, and they were doing that as though it were for their own family.

I know, that's a foolish dream.

Oh yes! A night of classic cognitive dissonance. At least with our old friend Karl, we can generate a plausible conspiracy theory along the lines of the Duke brothers in Trading Places ("Get those brokers back in here; turn those machines back on!"). That is, he might have been sure they fix was still in, and we just had to wait for it.

Trump, on the other hand, was just a clown.

Anyone whose financial institution would fund their InTrade account, that is. ;-)

There used to be a subscription site (maybe still is; I've lost the link) which scanned all the on-line betting sites worldwide and found arbitrages. They'd find things like British football, Indian cricket, and, I assume, Canadian Profession Curling (made that up). Something like a 5% return. Not per annum: per arb.

I took the offer of a free three day subscription, and spent a fun weekend with an Excel spreadsheet, and the online sports sections of the old Empire's newpapers. It was fun.

Not at all. I think the right mix of government/private sector is the answer.

There's some things government does well, some things the private sector does well.

For example, the private banking sector does not do a good job regulating themselves. Government doesn't do a particularly good job setting prices.

Let's figure out what each does best and go from there.

-David

A redstate blogger, pining for the 400+ electoral win of Harding over Wilson:

Obamanites will realize one day how much of a bozo their Saviour is, and hopefully in 2016, we’ll have our own Warren Harding.

That's where we differ.

You seem to think more government is the answer..

I feel that more government is the problem..

Michale

Brilliant!

Heheh. I'm not against all government. I'm just against bad government.

It's a balance. If I thought there were too much government, I'd be against it, but it seems rather the reverse.

Concentration of power is the issue to me. It can be concentrated too much w/ certain large corporations (think 'too big to fail' or any type of monopoly). It just happens to be one of the things government is needed for.

-David

:)

http://www.theonion.com/articles/i-want-to-congratulate-the-president-romney-says-i,30283/?ref=auto

If you ever want to come fight against corruption or a capitalism that works better, come join us!

When you start fighting against ALL politicians, you KNOW I'll be there... :D

Respect & beer,

Now that's just schweet... :D

dsws,

True and worth mentioning. But that still leaves a bunch that don't. I don't remember the numbers.

To be honest, I would be very surprised if there was a state that DIDN'T have this option..

Michale

True and worth mentioning. But that still leaves a bunch that don't. I don't remember the numbers.

If Americans have learned anything from this election (and 2000) it is that elections need to be federally regulated and controlled. Republican Governors have shown time and time and time again they are too childish to be left in charge of controlling voting...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x8yXRiv3lGI

True and worth mentioning. But that still leaves a bunch that don't. I don't remember the numbers.

Akin is slapping down McCaskill..

Another one that's gotta hurt..

:)

On the Senate topic, best result of the night (aside from the likely fact Democrats will extend their lead) has to be the absolute pasting Scott Brown took.

Why? Because they used to have good ideas and I'd like to see that Republican party again.

My guess is that it won't happen but it would be nice ...

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/11/07/164567090/republican-response-likely-to-be-tactical-not-transformative?utm_source=NPR&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=20121107

-David

Well played, Michale. It's only an election and you fought hard.

I'm just not sure the folks you're fighting for even know what they're fighting for anymore.

If you ever want to come fight against corruption or a capitalism that works better, come join us!

Even if it's just a single issue. No joke that I'd be honored to fight with you.

Respect & beer,
-David

CW, looks like Obama will just take Florida making both our predictions of 332 EV (a 62-38% Obama win correct). I'd like to say two things

THANK YOU AMERICA

To Americans who voted for sanity yesterday, the rest of the world appreciates it. Everyone I was watching with met the victory with a huge sigh and a sense of relief that America didn't un-do all the good work of the last 4 years and put the fragile economic recovery at stake.

THANK YOU FOX NEWS ET AL.

And a HUGE thank you to Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Rasmussen, other lol-right pollsters, right-wing media and the entire right-wing echo chamber so far out of touch with reality. Thanks to all these people a wonderful, wonderful site called In-Trade was filled with similar reality-challenged people vastly over estimating the odds of a Romney victory, meaning anyone who wanted to could make a huge chunk of cash (just in the arbitrage between In-Trade and other sites alone, with $0 risk). I personally bet heavy on Obama and used the arbitrage to hedge my losses through other sites, so that if Romney won I would've net out at $0. THANK YOU!

PS. There is still a chance the Democratic Senate lead will be increased correct? I'm not sure but the 2 Indies caucus with the Democrats so they are currently at 53? 2 more to come could put them at 55?!

"The Happy Warrior Speech" has a very, very nice ring to it! :)

And, what about Prop 30!? You must be very pleasantly surprised. Congratulations to you and to all Californians who believe in moving FORWARD!!!

You won't be depressed for very long ... not if you care about an improving economy for all Americans; not if you care about meeting the debt and deficit challenges in a prudent and effective manner; not if you care about America moving forward in the world as a strong leader.

You may not see this now but, give it about four years or so (with any luck, it will only take two years, if you know what I mean and I'm sure that you do!) and you may be quite surprised to find yourself eager to change your political affiliation to DEMOCRAT!!!

Don't worry, though ... there'll still be things to debate. :)

Most states have a process by which civil/voting rights can be restored to a felon...

Michale.....

... except felons and children. If someone committed a felony at age 20, does it really make sense to still disenfranchise them at age 80? Especially when a whole lot of felonies are crimes at all only because of our insane drug laws.

I'll start raining on your parade first thing tomorrow morning.. :D

Michale....

:D

That will help in future debates..

Michale.....

Makes sense to me...

Michale

CW,

Naw, you've earned it.. It's gonna be a rough week ahead for me.. :^D

Michale

This morning, we have for your pleasure:

Corneille avec les ouefs

or, perhaps,

Cuervo con huevos.

Heh.

OK, I'll stop now.

:-)

-CW

"This just in... science works!"

Heh. Couldn't resist...

:-)

-CW

Randall Munroe texted Sam Wang: "BREAKING: Numbers continue to be best tool for determining which of two things is larger."

Good night for your prognostication, as well, Mr. Weigent.

And with that... I'm done for the night. See you all tomorrow...

-CW

Obama speech up next...

-CW

48 for 48.

And still Alaska to go, which is an easy pickup, really.

:-)

-CW

Politico has it winning in WA 55% to 44% with 50% reporting.

One of the stations just said MJ legalization won in CO. No word on WA.

Gay marriage was approved in ME, too.

CA prop results trickling in...

-CW

One can only hope!

Romney not conceding yet. Didn't write a concession speech. Sounds like a sour loser to me...

-CW

Maybe Obama will support it now he has no further elections ahead of him.

(1) The MSM is obsessing about how Romney is ahead in the popular vote. I guess, 'cause they've got nothing better to talk about. But what none of them admit is that California IS STILL COUNTING. My guess is that Obama will gain a healthy pop vote from CA, but none of them even admit the possibility. Sheesh.

(2) I bet there'll be no recount, anywhere. Because it won't matter. WITHOUT any of the following: OH, FL, VA -- WITHOUT them, Obama's got 272 EV. So none of it matters, and recounts are a waste of everyone's time.

-CW

It was a very satisfying evening ...

Ohio!
-David

Not bad, if I do say so, not bad...

:-)

-CW

-CW

:)

-David

Will that be during the first recount or the second?

that depends on ohio

;p

~joshua

Will that be during the first recount or the second?

Heh.

-CW

I kinda doubt it. There were two battling props on the ballot, 30 and 38. The woman behind 38 financed a huge ad buy against 30, and the result is that both will probably fail. Which is a shame.

-CW

Will Prop 30 win tonight?

-CW

And Elizabeth Warren in Pennsylvania ...

And Obama up in Ohio ... looking good!

It's almost over...

-CW

Looks like my rash prediction actually has a chance of coming true...

-CW

Ni all

The fat lady is warming up, in the wings...

:-)

-CW

-CW

Yea, I know...

But if Romney makes his chops as we travel west, it might not matter.. :D

Michale

Don't forget, the West Coast is solid blue, and we've got more EV than all those red states in the middle...

:-)

-CW

-CW

Romney 154

Get yer game faces on.. :D

michale,

i'm guessing your per-message donation has started?

Nope.. Just practicin by doing the play-by-play announcing...

How do you think FL will go?? Obama is barely ahead and the only outstanding counties are Panhandle Counties...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0O0nzkESTI

Back this hitch up into the water
Untie all the cables and rope
Step onto the astro turf
Get yourself a coozie
Let's go

Who said anything about skiin'?
Floatin' is all I wanna do
You can climb the ladder
Just don't rock the boat while I barbeque

[Chorus:]
On the pontoon
Makin' waves and catchin' rays up on the roof
Jumpin' out the back, don't act like you don't want to
Party in slow motion
Out here in the open
Mmmmmmm...motorboatin'

(Hoo hoo hoo)

Reach your hand down into the cooler
Don't drink it if the mountains aren't blue
Try to keep it steady as you recline on your black inner tube

[Chorus:]
Pontoon
Makin' waves and catchin' rays up on the roof
Jumpin' out the back, don't act like you don't want to
Party in slow motion
Out here in the open
Mmmmmm...motorboatin'

(Hoo hoo hoo)
(Hoo hoo hoo)

[Bridge:]
5 mile an hour with aluminum side
Wood panelin' with a water slide
Can't beat the heat, so let's take a ride

[Chorus:]
On the pontoon
Makin' waves and catchin' rays up on the roof
Jumpin' out the back, don't act like you don't want to
Party in slow motion
I'm out here in the open
Mmmmmmm...motorboatin'

On the pontoon

(Hoo hoo hoo)

On the pontoon

(Hoo hoo hoo)

Back this hitch out into the water
On the pontoon

(Hoo hoo hoo)

(Hoo hoo hoo)

michale,

i'm guessing your per-message donation has started?

BWAH hah hah! Now that was funny!

-CW

i'm guessing your per-message donation has started?

:)

It's looking bad for Obama....