Really????

Boy, are you guys in for a kool-aid hangover tomorrow!!! :D

Obama 79 EV

Looks like FL is a Romney state... I called that one.. :D

MS and AL went Romney

It's completely Romney now...

Which, I know, means absolutely NOTHING... :D

Michale.....

Obama 79
Romney 71

THAT'S gotta hurt.. :D

Michale.....

I was thinking about hittin' the sack as I have to be up at 0300 EDT...

But this is too good a show to pass up.. :D

Michale....

Obama 3 EV

Romney 49 EV

If anyone wants to change their story, now would be a good time... :D

Michale.....

Michale.....

Looks like Obama is not as confident as ya'all are... :D

Michale....

Apologies to dsws.. Looks like the POP vote *IS* going to be close... :D

Michale.....

Mitt Romney 33 EV

Woot!!!!! :D

Michale.....

Really????

Because what I am seeing, it looks like Romney is DOUBLING Obama's popular vote and increasing by the minute.....

Boy, are you guys in for a kool-aid hangover tomorrow!!! :D

Michale.....

Michale.....

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results/

POPULAR VOTE

OBAMA 43,447

ROMNEY 74,514

It's gonna be a rout!!!!!! :D

Michale

Obama 281

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18)

Romney 257

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Colorado (9)

The popular vote will be so close that Republicans in the blogosphere will insist they really won, based on some wild estimates of military absentee ballots and fantasies about ACORN. Republican office-holders won't believe it, but they'll dog-whistle it consistently.

This does not bode well for Romney:

Fifty-two percent say Romney's policies favor the rich. Thirty-six percent say he favors the middle class, while just 2 percent say he favors the poor.

Only 10 percent say Mr. Obama favors the rich. Forty-three percent say he favors the middle class, while 31 percent say he favors the poor.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57546031/early-exit-polls-60-percent-say-economy-top-issue/

If you voted for Obama to prove you weren't racist, vote now for Romney to prove you're not an idiot.

Now THAT's funny!!! :D

Anyone line up a CHAT forum yet???

Michale.....

NEW RULE:

If you don't link it, it doesn't exist...

:D

Michale.....

Electoral college tied. Democrats miraculously take the house but lose the senate and we end up with Obama president and Ryan Vice President...

Now THAT's creative! :D

Michale.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/06/the-big-surprise-of-2009-2012-how-the-tea-party-passed-and-protected-obamacare/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unlawful_Internet_Gambling_Enforcement_Act_of_2006

But yes go on denying that a Republican written, Republican sponsored bill signed into law by a Republican President is the fault of the Democrats lol.

Electoral college tied. Democrats miraculously take the house but lose the senate and we end up with Obama president and Ryan Vice President...

That's a great story, michty...

But, since you have absolutely NO corroborating evidence, that is all it is..

A story...

Michale.....

Right-nut-tea-party-crazies backed by the religious right in the Republican party wanted on-line gambling banned (evil, against God etc). They tried to pass a bill - it obviously fell flat on it's face. Time was running out, as their hold over the House was ending, it was late 2006. So they decided to attach a version of the bill to the 'Safe Ports Act', a universally supported Bill to curb terrorist acts at US Ports and snuck it through this during the lame duck session. It wasn't debated, discussed or even mentioned during the passing of the Safe Ports Act.

It was poorly written and almost unenforceable because it was so vague (for example, it is called the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act but doesn't define 'gambling' lolol). Banks and financial institutions, as a result, are scared to process anything that might look like it is going to a 'gambling' site - thus Neteller, Moneybookers and the like have insane security procedures to get money on-line.

Of course, being Republican created, it had opt outs for the largest lobbying groups (NFL, for example got an opt-out for fantasy sports leagues; horse racing got an opt-out too).

Since then the WTO has filed a trade complaint against America regarding the legislation, Barney Frank had a bill to regulate internet gambling that was shot down by House Republicans in 2010 and now Reid/Kyl (backed by Vegas) have a similar bill to regulate internet gambling. It is estimated regulating and taxing this market is worth $40b in income. But Republicans, being the prudent fiscal party (LOL), are blocking it at every step.

UK and Canadian citizens continue to be allowed to gamble unfettered by their Governments (and, in many cases, tax free :)). Welcome to life in the LAND OF THE FREE!

Here here... Although I would argue the "un-corrected" part...

A lot of them are problems that were uncovered in 2010..

Michale

If you don't have the proof, why not just say so...

David whacks my wee-wee when I just give him google links...

Be specific.. If the facts are on your side, that shouldn't be difficult... :D

Michale.....

First, Nate Silver is to pundits as Craig's List is to print classified ads. He went all in last night on Colbert, saying in a head-to-head match of Pundit vs. Ebola, he'd vote Ebola. I, like his statistics, have every confidence he'll win this one.

Second, I'm delighted to see the live blog roll of voting irregularities. It means shenanigans, which have been practiced by both parties since forever, are not going unobserved, un-Tweeted, and uncorrected.

I don't know what's going on with that software court case in Ohio; if anyone knows if the judge has decided, please post it here.

Third, I think it's time for internet voting. Yeah, it's not without problems, but it would be the best thing to happen to participation rates and fraud reduction ever. Paper trails, audit trails, and an environment with which the banks, credit card companies, and increasing proportion of commerce feels comfortable against evil-doing is something whose time is just about here.

People say they think pot's going to make it in CO. I'm still not so sure, but if it does, watch the libertarian draw -from both sides.

All I see is your opinion..

You claim I am wrong??

Prove it. :D

Michale.....

It was actually Democrats who pushed/supported such legislation, as they said minorities were unfairly hurt by the practice...

Lol I don't think so. You are talking about a piece of legislation which I am incredibly familiar with and have been following for year.

It was absolutely nothing to do with Democrats. It was snuck through by Republicans during the lame duck period, attached to the 'Safe Ports Act'. It was written by Jim Leech (R) and Robert Goodlatte (R) then pushed in the Senate by Jim Leach (R)and Jon Kyl (R). Signed into law by George Bush (R). The sort of piece of crappy legislation that gets pushed through a lame duck because there isn't a chance in hell it would get passed any other time.

Democrats have tried many times in the last years to try and counter this over-the-top bill. Barney Frank tried for years to garner support to overturn it. The latest version is a Reid/Kyl bill to loosen it (Reid persuaded Kyl that the piece of crap bill he helped create was a piece of crap) which still might be passed in this years lame duck. Obama also said he wanted to repeal parts of it (Obama was an avid poker player back in the day and still talks about the game a lot), but it wasn't a priority (obviously).

So yeh you might want to research the FACTS before claiming someone else is ignorant on a subject they know more than you about... ;)

Ahhhh Ignorance is bliss..

It was actually Democrats who pushed/supported such legislation, as they said minorities were unfairly hurt by the practice...

But, nice try.. :D

Michale....

Yeh I have basically only seen 3 predictions coming out of models:
- 290 (O loses VA, FL)
- 303 (O wins VA, loses FL)
- 332 (Ours where he wins both)

Any of these will be good, I get the feeling the result might fall in the middle but Florida is so close just now you might as well just flip a coin! I don't see him losing VA but with around only a 1-2% lead it wouldn't be a huge shock (McCain had a 1.4% lead in Indiana in 2008 and O edged this)

Although you might not be able to get money on those sites from America because your freedom loving Republican party banned that a few years back...

But I like how 'crowd sizes' is a valid measure of the potential election outcome but actual scientific polls aren't in your world!

"And, of course, you can PROVE that, right?? Oh yea, I forgot. You were absent the day they taught law at Law School!!"
-Tom Cruise, A FEW GOOD MEN

Like I said, we'll likely know tonight who is right and who ain't...

Prepare the Crow Feast!! :D

Michale....

You KNOW I am going to quote you on that tomorrow.. :D

Hahaha to avoid making sure I don't sound like one of those crazies predicting massive landslides, I want to clarify: I meant he is NOT going to win Ohio 66-33, that's why he IS going to lose the election day vote. 46% is enough for him on election day with how he crushed early voting. I expect him to get close 50% and thus win by around 5...

compare the crowd sizes to Obama campaign stops (a couple thousand at most) and the crowd sizes to Romney campaign stops (tens of thousands) recently.

The crowd sizes are very comparable. The only reason you think they are not is because you live in the right-wing echo chamber...

But I like how 'crowd sizes' is a valid measure of the potential election outcome but actual scientific polls aren't in your world!

We're going to accept the will of the people as expressed by our system of voting, unless there is unequivocal evidence of fraud that would have swayed the election..

Right???

Michale.....

Romney's got this locked up.. :D

Michale.....

Also I think Democrats will not only hold the Senate but there is a good change they will increase their majority there because of the nut-job candidates fielded by Republicans

It's common knowledge that Democrats will actually lose MORE House seats.... :D

Disregard this..

I misread your initial comment..

My bust...

Michale.....

They are saying not to panic because early exit polls are going to be showing Obama losing.

And there is a reason for that.. :D It will be because Obama *WILL* be losing.. :D

Everybody knows Obama is going to win Ohio 66-33.

You KNOW I am going to quote you on that tomorrow.. :D

Also I think Democrats will not only hold the Senate but there is a good change they will increase their majority there because of the nut-job candidates fielded by Republicans

Now I KNOW you are completely delusional..

It's common knowledge that Democrats will actually lose MORE House seats.... :D

CW,

I think the Romney team is the one experiencing panic, right about now...

And yet, it's only TEAM OBAMA who is articulating the Panic :D

Especially when Obama couldn't fill up his final speech venue.. Even with Jay-Z (whoever that is) and The Boss doing concerts...

Further, compare the crowd sizes to Obama campaign stops (a couple thousand at most) and the crowd sizes to Romney campaign stops (tens of thousands) recently...

Obama has very good reason to panic..

Joshua,

You are correct on Florida.. Local headlines around these here parts clearly show Florida is going Romney..

The fact that anyone disputes this shows the amount of Kool-Aid in their system. :D

Voter suppression is seen as a brilliant short-term tactic by Republicans. But in the long term, they may be digging their own grave.

Of course you are assuming it WAS voter suppression and not a desire to make sure illegals don't vote.

Another way to say it would be:

Vote Integrity is seen as a brilliant short-term tactic by Republicans. But in the long term, they may be serving the public good even more..

Yea, that works too... :D It's all in the spin...

My way is just as factually accurate as your way... :D

"Now that I hear it out loud, I like your way better."
-Woody The Coroner, PSYCH

:D

Michale....

Can't resist:

"Don't Panic!"
- from the cover of The Hitchiker's Guide To The Galaxy

Heh.

I think the Romney team is the one experiencing panic, right about now...

nypoet22 -

Sandy may have an effect on the national vote, but I can't see it affecting any state votes -- those are all some pretty blue states, up there. But nationally, Sandy could mean higher chances for Romney winning the popular vote while Obama wins the Electoral College. There's a lot of voters in the NYC metro area... a LOT of voters...

michael hassan -

I wanted to believe NC was going O again, but I just can't do it. It's a bridge too far. I hope I'm wrong, though.

I wrote about the seniors getting annoyed at voter suppression back in July. I, too, wonder how it'll all play out.

Voter suppression is seen as a brilliant short-term tactic by Republicans. But in the long term, they may be digging their own grave.

michty6 -

Great minds think alike. Heh.

Also, more on down-ballot races in tomorrow's column, promise!

nypoet22 -

Man, if you're right, we're in for a nail-biter! I hope I'm right and you're wrong, just for the sake of my sanity.

:-)

- CW

Obama - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio

Romney - Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire

totals:

Obama 271
Romney 267

for better or worse, i think the president will have a second term.
~joshua

SAFE STATES
Obama - 201 EV
Romney - 191 EV

Minnesota is included in here. The idea that it will be close is silly. It will be as close as Arizona, Georgia or Missouri for Romney. Maine CD2 and Oregon also in there for Obama.

SOLID STATES
I include those which the candidate is over 2% in my model.

Obama - 80 EV
Romney - 0 EV

These are enough to send Obama over the top. This is why the idea that the election is 'close' is just a media invention. Any of these flipping would be a huge shock, never-mind more than 1 of them:
- Michigan (16) +5.65%
- PA (20) +4.15%
- Wisconsin (10) +4.8%
- Ohio (18) +4.95%
- Iowa (6) +3.3%
- Nevada (6) +5.05%
- New Hampshire (4) +2.7%

TOSS-UP STATES
These are closer than 2% so a flip the other way wouldn't be totally out of order.

Obama - 51 EV
Romney - 15 EV

- Colorado (9) +1.95%
- Virginia (13) +1.85%
- North Carolina (15) -1.95%
- Florida (29) +0.00%

Florida actually came out 0.00% with no manipulation! It was +0.1% Obama yesterday. I predict that:
(1) If the election isn't close, it will go Obama by a tiny, tiny margin with no re-count
(2) If the election is close, it will go to re-count and the Republican Governor will magically pull a Romney victory out ala 2000.

Scenario (2) is pretty unlikely though, Romney has too much ground to make up elsewhere.

TOTALS

Obama - 332 EV (62%)
Romney - 206 EV (38%)

Same as CW! Obama wins by 24%. Pretty 'close. ;)

It's time for those supporters to panic... :D

Lol once again you failed to read and jump to the conclusions you want to hear. They are saying not to panic because early exit polls are going to be showing Obama losing. This is what happens on voting day when you have a massive early voting lead. For example, 2-1 in Ohio. Everybody knows Obama is going to win Ohio 66-33. So it is clear he will lose voting day there. Simples. Now to my predictions...

The voter supression BS attempted by Republican partisians is going to have backfired in a big way. Memo to PA House Speaker and OH Secy of State: You gentlemen are buffoons.

What happens when you pull down the Pillsbury DoughBoy's pants??

You see his dough nuts....

:D

Michale....

When a campaign tells it's supporters to NOT PANIC....

It's time for those supporters to panic... :D

Gods, tomorrow is going to be like Mardi Gras!! :D

I am going to go with the UoC study....

Romney..... 330 EVs...

Obama...... Whatever Leftovers are available..

Michale.....