Comments on: 2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/ Reality-based political commentary Sun, 14 Jun 2026 03:59:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: ChrisWeigant.com » Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-29086 ChrisWeigant.com » Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks Mon, 05 Nov 2012 23:18:26 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-29086 [...] 2012 Electoral Math — One Week Out [...] [...] 2012 Electoral Math — One Week Out [...]

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28899 Michale Fri, 02 Nov 2012 18:25:34 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28899 <I>You wait until a poll says something that you like then post it on here. </I> On the contrary.. I wait to see if ya'all are going to post polls that ya don't like.. When ya don't, I do it for ya.. :D Michale..... You wait until a poll says something that you like then post it on here.

On the contrary..

I wait to see if ya'all are going to post polls that ya don't like..

When ya don't, I do it for ya.. :D

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28881 michty6 Fri, 02 Nov 2012 15:39:23 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28881 Lol that is precisely cherry picking polls Michale! You wait until a poll says something that you like then post it on here. I don't ignore any polls, I believe aggregating polls is the best way of dealing with them instead of focussing on 1 poll. So Gallup is included (even now I believe) in the aggregated polls showing Obama winning comfortably... Lol that is precisely cherry picking polls Michale! You wait until a poll says something that you like then post it on here. I don't ignore any polls, I believe aggregating polls is the best way of dealing with them instead of focussing on 1 poll. So Gallup is included (even now I believe) in the aggregated polls showing Obama winning comfortably...

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28855 Michale Thu, 01 Nov 2012 21:48:21 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28855 Michty, My polls opinion has always been consistent throughout the 6+ years I have been here.. The only reason it *appears* that I "cherry-pick" polls is because I always bring up the polls that YA'ALL ignore... Mainly, the polls that you don't agree with... It's really nothing more nefarious than that... :D Michale..... Michty,

My polls opinion has always been consistent throughout the 6+ years I have been here..

The only reason it *appears* that I "cherry-pick" polls is because I always bring up the polls that YA'ALL ignore...

Mainly, the polls that you don't agree with...

It's really nothing more nefarious than that... :D

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28830 michty6 Thu, 01 Nov 2012 01:31:01 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28830 PS. One last comment on Gallup's trackers. They also currently say that the unemployment rate in America is 7.1%. LOL. Ironically, if this were what was announced on Friday their Presidential polls would turn out to be even more considerably wrong that they are just now... PS. One last comment on Gallup's trackers. They also currently say that the unemployment rate in America is 7.1%. LOL.

Ironically, if this were what was announced on Friday their Presidential polls would turn out to be even more considerably wrong that they are just now...

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28826 michty6 Thu, 01 Nov 2012 01:07:38 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28826 Also, while on the subject of pollsters, in before Rasmussen goes with something between 'Tied' to 'Obama + 2' on election night to protect their credibility (at least in national polls, their State polls were about 5% out last time and they don't have any credibility in those)... Also, while on the subject of pollsters, in before Rasmussen goes with something between 'Tied' to 'Obama + 2' on election night to protect their credibility (at least in national polls, their State polls were about 5% out last time and they don't have any credibility in those)...

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28825 michty6 Thu, 01 Nov 2012 01:05:23 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28825 Michale I mean this discussion is just another example of you cherry picking polls while claiming you don't believe in polls. On that note, today was probably the worst batch of polls Romney has seen in a long time. He is back to pre-debate-1 levels of polling. I wonder if Republicans will blame Hurricane Sandy for the loss. I could actually see that coming: 'Obama was saved by Hurricane Sandy! The lies and incompetence of Romney were nothing to do with it...' Michale

I mean this discussion is just another example of you cherry picking polls while claiming you don't believe in polls.

On that note, today was probably the worst batch of polls Romney has seen in a long time. He is back to pre-debate-1 levels of polling.

I wonder if Republicans will blame Hurricane Sandy for the loss. I could actually see that coming: 'Obama was saved by Hurricane Sandy! The lies and incompetence of Romney were nothing to do with it...'

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28820 Michale Wed, 31 Oct 2012 22:14:39 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28820 <I>again, i'd warn you against being overenthusiastic about whichever statistic you're interpreting. in 2008 the enthusiasm for obama was staggeringly high, so a big drop-off may not necessarily signal a losing election, just a much closer one. my perception is that romney has more of an electoral chance than some polls may anticipate, but it's not going to be a blow-out either way.</I> True... But regardless, it STILL has to have Obama worried regarding the precipitous drop in DEM enthusiasm... Remember, Obama is in a bubble, where all his advisors are telling him things are "peachy keen wonderful".. As my lovely wife would say.. :D Michale... again, i'd warn you against being overenthusiastic about whichever statistic you're interpreting. in 2008 the enthusiasm for obama was staggeringly high, so a big drop-off may not necessarily signal a losing election, just a much closer one. my perception is that romney has more of an electoral chance than some polls may anticipate, but it's not going to be a blow-out either way.

True... But regardless, it STILL has to have Obama worried regarding the precipitous drop in DEM enthusiasm...

Remember, Obama is in a bubble, where all his advisors are telling him things are "peachy keen wonderful".. As my lovely wife would say.. :D

Michale...

]]> By: nypoet22 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28819 nypoet22 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 21:34:34 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28819 <i>Yet DEMOCRAT early voting is down 70% from 2008...</i> again, i'd warn you against being overenthusiastic about whichever statistic you're interpreting. in 2008 the enthusiasm for obama was staggeringly high, so a big drop-off may not necessarily signal a losing election, just a much closer one. my perception is that romney has more of an electoral chance than some polls may anticipate, but it's not going to be a blow-out either way. ~joshua Yet DEMOCRAT early voting is down 70% from 2008...

again, i'd warn you against being overenthusiastic about whichever statistic you're interpreting. in 2008 the enthusiasm for obama was staggeringly high, so a big drop-off may not necessarily signal a losing election, just a much closer one. my perception is that romney has more of an electoral chance than some polls may anticipate, but it's not going to be a blow-out either way.

~joshua

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28817 Michale Wed, 31 Oct 2012 20:41:57 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28817 <I>while romney may yet prevail, it is unlikely that this particular statistic would cause obama any concern whatsoever. of the thirty or so states that have early voting, about two thirds of them are solidly red, while only california, illinois and maine are blue. all the other solidly blue states don't have in-person early voting.</I> Yet DEMOCRAT early voting is down 70% from 2008... Now, if you don't believe that THAT is causing Obama some sleepless nights, I have some swampland in Florida I wanna sell you.. :D Michale..... while romney may yet prevail, it is unlikely that this particular statistic would cause obama any concern whatsoever. of the thirty or so states that have early voting, about two thirds of them are solidly red, while only california, illinois and maine are blue. all the other solidly blue states don't have in-person early voting.

Yet DEMOCRAT early voting is down 70% from 2008...

Now, if you don't believe that THAT is causing Obama some sleepless nights, I have some swampland in Florida I wanna sell you.. :D

Michale.....

]]> By: nypoet22 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28816 nypoet22 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 20:37:33 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28816 <i>In the early votes, Romney is up by 7 points. 52% Romney, 45% Obama.. Keep in mind, this is NOT polling, this is FACT.... It's doubly devastating for Obama because, normally, early voters swing Left, not Right.</i> while romney may yet prevail, it is unlikely that this particular statistic would cause obama any concern whatsoever. of the thirty or so states that have early voting, about two thirds of them are solidly red, while only california, illinois and maine are blue. all the other solidly blue states don't have in-person early voting. therefore, although it is not surprising at all that a majority of early voters overall would be republican, that figure may not be as meaningful as you think. the early voting results that might be more indicative of the outcome of the race are the state-by-state figures in ohio, florida, nevada, colorado, iowa, new hampshire and north carolina. ~joshua In the early votes, Romney is up by 7 points. 52% Romney, 45% Obama..

Keep in mind, this is NOT polling, this is FACT....

It's doubly devastating for Obama because, normally, early voters swing Left, not Right.

while romney may yet prevail, it is unlikely that this particular statistic would cause obama any concern whatsoever. of the thirty or so states that have early voting, about two thirds of them are solidly red, while only california, illinois and maine are blue. all the other solidly blue states don't have in-person early voting.

therefore, although it is not surprising at all that a majority of early voters overall would be republican, that figure may not be as meaningful as you think. the early voting results that might be more indicative of the outcome of the race are the state-by-state figures in ohio, florida, nevada, colorado, iowa, new hampshire and north carolina.

~joshua

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28814 Michale Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:27:35 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28814 http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-and-panetta-speak-not-president_659902.html Obama is not going to be re-elected.. It's that simple... Michale..... http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-and-panetta-speak-not-president_659902.html

Obama is not going to be re-elected..

It's that simple...

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28813 michty6 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 17:51:25 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28813 GM Spokesman: <I>At this stage, we're looking at Hubble telescope-length distances between campaign ads and reality.</I> Oh. Snap. GM Spokesman: At this stage, we're looking at Hubble telescope-length distances between campaign ads and reality.

Oh. Snap.

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28812 michty6 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 15:16:30 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28812 (5 most recent Florida polls: O+1, O+1, R+1, O+1, O+2 - ruh roh!) (5 most recent Florida polls: O+1, O+1, R+1, O+1, O+2 - ruh roh!)

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28805 michty6 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 14:04:22 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28805 Expect to see Romney et al campaigning hard in Florida soon. It is very much in play and without it Romney is toast. Expect to see Romney et al campaigning hard in Florida soon. It is very much in play and without it Romney is toast.

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28804 michty6 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 14:03:35 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28804 Btw this: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html is a good page to look at early voting. I'll save you some time: Democrats are ahead in voter registration numbers for early voting everywhere except Colorado. Republicans reduced the lead yesterday but not by much. Here is where Democrats are in comparison to 2008: NC - D+18% (2008 - 16.4%) NV - D+7.1% (2008 - 8%) IA - D+12.1% (2008 - 12.7%) FL - D+1.4% (2008 - R+1.4%!) CO - R+2.8% (2008 - R+1%) So NV and IA are running below 2008 numbers in D early voting; NC above; FL waaaay above as is CO. Based on this data, FL is almost certainly in play and CO is in play for Republicans. OH you have to go through by county. If anyone knows a site where they are doing this please put it here! Btw this: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html is a good page to look at early voting.

I'll save you some time: Democrats are ahead in voter registration numbers for early voting everywhere except Colorado. Republicans reduced the lead yesterday but not by much. Here is where Democrats are in comparison to 2008:

NC - D+18% (2008 - 16.4%)
NV - D+7.1% (2008 - 8%)
IA - D+12.1% (2008 - 12.7%)
FL - D+1.4% (2008 - R+1.4%!)
CO - R+2.8% (2008 - R+1%)

So NV and IA are running below 2008 numbers in D early voting; NC above; FL waaaay above as is CO. Based on this data, FL is almost certainly in play and CO is in play for Republicans.

OH you have to go through by county. If anyone knows a site where they are doing this please put it here!

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28802 michty6 Wed, 31 Oct 2012 13:45:21 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28802 Well Romney did, by many accounts, run a campaign event pretending it was a hurricane relief effort. Yes it wasn't a normal campaign event but they did far too many things that you could just call it a relief event. Btw I think Romney will move out of Ohio now. From reports I've seen he is targeting Pennsylvania instead - even he is perhaps smart enough to realise how much he just blew Ohio (last 5 OH polls: O+3, O+3, O+3, O+5, O+5). PA is his best change of getting the 18 EV he completely threw out the window, although Super-Pacs will have wasted a lot of money with ad buys in OH! Well Romney did, by many accounts, run a campaign event pretending it was a hurricane relief effort. Yes it wasn't a normal campaign event but they did far too many things that you could just call it a relief event.

Btw I think Romney will move out of Ohio now. From reports I've seen he is targeting Pennsylvania instead - even he is perhaps smart enough to realise how much he just blew Ohio (last 5 OH polls: O+3, O+3, O+3, O+5, O+5). PA is his best change of getting the 18 EV he completely threw out the window, although Super-Pacs will have wasted a lot of money with ad buys in OH!

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28783 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 22:34:41 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28783 http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/30/msnbc-trashes-romney-collecting-food-and-supplies-sandy-victims#ixzz2Aoy9BldZ Ahhhhhhh Ya gotta love the "unbiased" MSM, eh?? :D It would be so comical, if it wasn't so tragic and sad... Michale.. http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/30/msnbc-trashes-romney-collecting-food-and-supplies-sandy-victims#ixzz2Aoy9BldZ

Ahhhhhhh Ya gotta love the "unbiased" MSM, eh?? :D

It would be so comical, if it wasn't so tragic and sad...

Michale..

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28782 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 21:26:19 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28782 <I>Hey Michale you skipped [21]</I> Here's a thought.. JUST a thought, mind you... Why don't we dispense with the whose right/whose wrong debate until a week from right now... Then, it will be obvious as to who is right and who is wrong... :D Michale..... Hey Michale you skipped [21]

Here's a thought.. JUST a thought, mind you...

Why don't we dispense with the whose right/whose wrong debate until a week from right now...

Then, it will be obvious as to who is right and who is wrong... :D

Michale.....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28781 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 21:24:52 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28781 http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/30/hurricane-puts-race-in-holding-pattern/ Ya gotta hand it to FNC.. If one actually CONSIDERS their words, rather than just write them off as partisan BS, FNC makes a LOT of sense to everyday Americans.. Michale..... http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/30/hurricane-puts-race-in-holding-pattern/

Ya gotta hand it to FNC..

If one actually CONSIDERS their words, rather than just write them off as partisan BS, FNC makes a LOT of sense to everyday Americans..

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28780 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:54:40 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28780 PS. If you don't know what I'm talking about in [21] since I doubt it's covered in right-wing land here is the story: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542594/chrysler-ceo-jeep-not-moving-to-china/ Chrysler CEO: <I>"Jeep assembly lines will remain in operation in the United States and will constitute the backbone of the brand. It is inaccurate to suggest anything different."</I> At least he was kind enough to use the term 'inaccurate' and not something like 'flat out lie' or 'complete made up bullshit' which I would've been tempted to do if I were as pissed off as he probably is by this Romney lie... PS. If you don't know what I'm talking about in [21] since I doubt it's covered in right-wing land here is the story: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542594/chrysler-ceo-jeep-not-moving-to-china/

Chrysler CEO:
"Jeep assembly lines will remain in operation in the United States and will constitute the backbone of the brand.

It is inaccurate to suggest anything different."

At least he was kind enough to use the term 'inaccurate' and not something like 'flat out lie' or 'complete made up bullshit' which I would've been tempted to do if I were as pissed off as he probably is by this Romney lie...

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28778 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:49:13 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28778 Hey Michale you skipped [21] Hey Michale you skipped [21]

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28777 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:43:58 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28777 <I>I've mentioned this so many times, just favouring one pollster and one set of data (that coincidentally supports the view of the election that you want) is statistical suicide. The info is out there if you're not too lazy to find it ;)</I> And yet, Romney is going to win... When that comes to pass, will you admit you were wrong?? :D Yea... When monkees fly outta my butt... :D Michale.... I've mentioned this so many times, just favouring one pollster and one set of data (that coincidentally supports the view of the election that you want) is statistical suicide. The info is out there if you're not too lazy to find it ;)

And yet, Romney is going to win...

When that comes to pass, will you admit you were wrong?? :D

Yea... When monkees fly outta my butt... :D

Michale....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28776 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:43:35 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28776 Btw by most accounts (polls etc) the only battlegrounds Romney is (was) ahead of Obama in early voting were Colorado and Florida. Colorado is close but I think Romney is probably still marginally ahead. Florida, however, moved to Obama when in-person voting began Monday Democrats wiped out the absentee voting GOP lead in Florida in 2 days (in 2008 it took them 7). This is a right-leaning paper btw, you can tell by the language that they are trying to put the best spin on this they can: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-22m-floridians-having-voted-a-quarter-of-electorate-dems-lead-reps-by-more-than-31000-ballots.html Btw by most accounts (polls etc) the only battlegrounds Romney is (was) ahead of Obama in early voting were Colorado and Florida. Colorado is close but I think Romney is probably still marginally ahead.

Florida, however, moved to Obama when in-person voting began Monday Democrats wiped out the absentee voting GOP lead in Florida in 2 days (in 2008 it took them 7). This is a right-leaning paper btw, you can tell by the language that they are trying to put the best spin on this they can:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-22m-floridians-having-voted-a-quarter-of-electorate-dems-lead-reps-by-more-than-31000-ballots.html

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28775 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:38:47 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28775 <I>I don't know, maybe I'd say a 'President who lives in the 21st century and knows that people have these things called 'cell phones' that can be used for internet communications when all other lines of communications are down' lol</I> Cell towers have been destroyed.... You DO understand the severity of a Hurricane, right?? Well, yer not alone.. Apparently, Obama doesn't understand it either... Michale..... I don't know, maybe I'd say a 'President who lives in the 21st century and knows that people have these things called 'cell phones' that can be used for internet communications when all other lines of communications are down' lol

Cell towers have been destroyed....

You DO understand the severity of a Hurricane, right??

Well, yer not alone..

Apparently, Obama doesn't understand it either...

Michale.....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28774 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:35:33 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28774 No matter how you try to spin it, Obama screwed up on Benghazi.. There were DOZENS of options Obama could have done... The ONE *WORST* possible option was to do nothing and let Americans die.. And THAT's the option that Obama chose... ALL partisanship aside, Obama screwed up... Period... No other logical conclusion is possible... Michale..... No matter how you try to spin it, Obama screwed up on Benghazi..

There were DOZENS of options Obama could have done...

The ONE *WORST* possible option was to do nothing and let Americans die..

And THAT's the option that Obama chose...

ALL partisanship aside, Obama screwed up...

Period...

No other logical conclusion is possible...

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28773 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:34:58 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28773 Michale, <I>I posted the link that shows Romney ahead in early voting.. Where's your link that shows Obama ahead?</I> Well I can't post more than one link but here are a couple of the latest national pollsters on early voting: PPP: 59-41 Obama Reuters/Ipsos: 58-39 Obama If you look inside the State pollsters you can find them. eg. today's SurveryUSA Florida poll = 57-42 Obama. I've mentioned this so many times, just favouring one pollster and one set of data (that coincidentally supports the view of the election that you want) is statistical suicide. The info is out there if you're not too lazy to find it ;) <I>How else would YOU characterize Obama telling people without power to log onto ready.gov for information?</I> I don't know, maybe I'd say a 'President who lives in the 21st century and knows that people have these things called 'cell phones' that can be used for internet communications when all other lines of communications are down' lol Michale,
I posted the link that shows Romney ahead in early voting..
Where's your link that shows Obama ahead?

Well I can't post more than one link but here are a couple of the latest national pollsters on early voting:
PPP: 59-41 Obama
Reuters/Ipsos: 58-39 Obama

If you look inside the State pollsters you can find them. eg. today's SurveryUSA Florida poll = 57-42 Obama.

I've mentioned this so many times, just favouring one pollster and one set of data (that coincidentally supports the view of the election that you want) is statistical suicide. The info is out there if you're not too lazy to find it ;)

How else would YOU characterize Obama telling people without power to log onto ready.gov for information?

I don't know, maybe I'd say a 'President who lives in the 21st century and knows that people have these things called 'cell phones' that can be used for internet communications when all other lines of communications are down' lol

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28772 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:09:44 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28772 <I>Yes indeed, they were POLLED on how they voted. And all polls show Obama is ahead in early voters by a big margin - Gallup is (once more) an outlier in this regard.</I> I posted the link that shows Romney ahead in early voting.. Where's your link that shows Obama ahead?? <I>Yeh I guess people get pretty angry when you try to take away their constitutional rights. I don't think anyone anywhere on the left has respect for people trying to rig elections. That isn't anything to do with 'diversity' or 'respect'.</I> It has EVERYTHING to do with diversity and respect.. The fact that you mis-characterize it as taking away people's rights simply proves my point.. Especially coming from you, who is on record as wanting to take away people's freedom of speech.. :D <I>Lol here we go again. Another desperate Benghazi-like Fox news story is brewing...</I> Yep, the same type of Fox News Benghazi NO PROTEST story that was dead on balls accurate, a <B>fact</B> you simply CANNOT deny... How else would YOU characterize Obama telling people without power to log onto ready.gov for information??? But, speaking of Benghazi... Contrast Obama's timid lack of response to American's being killed to Reagan's gutsy call in Grenada in 1983.... Now THAT was leadership.... Michale..... Yes indeed, they were POLLED on how they voted. And all polls show Obama is ahead in early voters by a big margin - Gallup is (once more) an outlier in this regard.

I posted the link that shows Romney ahead in early voting..

Where's your link that shows Obama ahead??

Yeh I guess people get pretty angry when you try to take away their constitutional rights. I don't think anyone anywhere on the left has respect for people trying to rig elections. That isn't anything to do with 'diversity' or 'respect'.

It has EVERYTHING to do with diversity and respect..

The fact that you mis-characterize it as taking away people's rights simply proves my point..

Especially coming from you, who is on record as wanting to take away people's freedom of speech.. :D

Lol here we go again. Another desperate Benghazi-like Fox news story is brewing...

Yep, the same type of Fox News Benghazi NO PROTEST story that was dead on balls accurate, a fact you simply CANNOT deny...

How else would YOU characterize Obama telling people without power to log onto ready.gov for information???

But, speaking of Benghazi... Contrast Obama's timid lack of response to American's being killed to Reagan's gutsy call in Grenada in 1983....

Now THAT was leadership....

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28771 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 18:58:45 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28771 Btw Michale what do you make of Romney's 'kitchen-sink' Jeep lie in Ohio? I think it's time for him to pull out of there as what slim chance he had he just threw away. Someone with a credibility issue who runs this advert has basically just given Obama a free-be. If I was Obama I'd pull out of there, it's in the bag now, Romney self-destructed on this one. Imo obviously. Btw Michale what do you make of Romney's 'kitchen-sink' Jeep lie in Ohio? I think it's time for him to pull out of there as what slim chance he had he just threw away. Someone with a credibility issue who runs this advert has basically just given Obama a free-be. If I was Obama I'd pull out of there, it's in the bag now, Romney self-destructed on this one. Imo obviously.

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28770 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 18:12:24 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28770 <I>People were asked how the VOTED, not how they are GOING to vote.</I> Yes indeed, they were POLLED on how they voted. And all polls show Obama is ahead in early voters by a big margin - Gallup is (once more) an outlier in this regard. I just thought it was funny that you stated that Romney was ahead 7% was a 'fact', as if Gallup had opened all the ballots themselves to verify this lol. <I>I thought the Left was all about diversity and respect for differing opinions?</I> Yeh I guess people get pretty angry when you try to take away their constitutional rights. I don't think anyone anywhere on the left has respect for people trying to rig elections. That isn't anything to do with 'diversity' or 'respect'. <I>Poor planning on the part of Obama's FEMA</I> Lol here we go again. Another desperate Benghazi-like Fox news story is brewing... People were asked how the VOTED, not how they are GOING to vote.

Yes indeed, they were POLLED on how they voted. And all polls show Obama is ahead in early voters by a big margin - Gallup is (once more) an outlier in this regard.

I just thought it was funny that you stated that Romney was ahead 7% was a 'fact', as if Gallup had opened all the ballots themselves to verify this lol.

I thought the Left was all about diversity and respect for differing opinions?

Yeh I guess people get pretty angry when you try to take away their constitutional rights. I don't think anyone anywhere on the left has respect for people trying to rig elections. That isn't anything to do with 'diversity' or 'respect'.

Poor planning on the part of Obama's FEMA

Lol here we go again. Another desperate Benghazi-like Fox news story is brewing...

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28769 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 16:52:10 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28769 <B>"Please stay inside and keep watch on ready.gov for the latest."</B> -President Barack Obama http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83024.html?hp=l10 Poor planning on the part of Obama's FEMA.... Michale "Please stay inside and keep watch on ready.gov for the latest."
-President Barack Obama

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83024.html?hp=l10

Poor planning on the part of Obama's FEMA....

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28768 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 16:38:06 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28768 http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/30/michael-moore-moveon-org-video-features-dirty-mouthed-old-people-lambasting-republicans-romney/ What IS it about the Left that they think such antics are appropriate??? First we have Obama saying that Romney is a "bullshitter" and now this load of garbage... I thought the Left was all about diversity and respect for differing opinions??? What gives??? Michale..... http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/30/michael-moore-moveon-org-video-features-dirty-mouthed-old-people-lambasting-republicans-romney/

What IS it about the Left that they think such antics are appropriate???

First we have Obama saying that Romney is a "bullshitter" and now this load of garbage...

I thought the Left was all about diversity and respect for differing opinions???

What gives???

Michale.....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28767 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 16:26:19 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28767 <I>Lol you are joking right? Your use of the word 'fact' gets more and more stretched with every post on here!</I> People were asked how the VOTED, not how they are GOING to vote.. That's the difference that makes ALL the difference... I know it's hard for you to accept, but Obama is not going to win re-election.... Michale..... Lol you are joking right? Your use of the word 'fact' gets more and more stretched with every post on here!

People were asked how the VOTED, not how they are GOING to vote..

That's the difference that makes ALL the difference...

I know it's hard for you to accept, but Obama is not going to win re-election....

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28766 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 16:07:02 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28766 <I>In early voting (which usually favors Dems), Romney is ahead by 7%... That's not a poll... That's a fact..</I> Lol you are joking right? Your use of the word 'fact' gets more and more stretched with every post on here! In early voting (which usually favors Dems), Romney is ahead by 7%...
That's not a poll... That's a fact..

Lol you are joking right? Your use of the word 'fact' gets more and more stretched with every post on here!

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28764 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 15:53:43 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28764 <I>I wouldn't rely too much on Gallup (or, for that matter, favour 1 pollster over another). When you having 20 pollsters saying X and 1 saying Y it is pretty clear which is the outlier.</I> Which is exactly my point... 20 polls (including the Poll Of Polls) say Romney has the advantage and one poll says that Obama has the advantage... It's a moot point since all polls are shit anyways... In early voting (which usually favors Dems), Romney is ahead by 7%... That's not a poll... That's a fact... Michale..... I wouldn't rely too much on Gallup (or, for that matter, favour 1 pollster over another). When you having 20 pollsters saying X and 1 saying Y it is pretty clear which is the outlier.

Which is exactly my point...

20 polls (including the Poll Of Polls) say Romney has the advantage and one poll says that Obama has the advantage...

It's a moot point since all polls are shit anyways...

In early voting (which usually favors Dems), Romney is ahead by 7%...

That's not a poll... That's a fact...

Michale.....

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28761 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 15:22:33 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28761 Also it seems like Chris Christie formally kicked off his 2016 Presidential campaign today... Also it seems like Chris Christie formally kicked off his 2016 Presidential campaign today...

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28760 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 14:36:24 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28760 <I>VA stunned me in 2008</I> Obama is polling very strongly there now but it is close. Last 5 polls (from TPM): O+3, O+4, Tie, Tie, Tied. Pretty much the only polls to put Romney up in Virginia recently are the Fox and Rasmussen ones. But obviously VA was hit hard last night and today - this will obviously impact Obama more <I>Dems might increase in the Senate? Really?</I> Yeh you use electoral-vote.com for your predictions right? Just now they show D 53, 1 tie and GOP 46. If you click on the Rasmussen-free maps it gets better - D 54 with 1 tie! VA stunned me in 2008

Obama is polling very strongly there now but it is close. Last 5 polls (from TPM):
O+3, O+4, Tie, Tie, Tied.

Pretty much the only polls to put Romney up in Virginia recently are the Fox and Rasmussen ones.

But obviously VA was hit hard last night and today - this will obviously impact Obama more

Dems might increase in the Senate? Really?

Yeh you use electoral-vote.com for your predictions right? Just now they show D 53, 1 tie and GOP 46. If you click on the Rasmussen-free maps it gets better - D 54 with 1 tie!

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28757 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 14:16:09 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28757 Michale, I wouldn't rely too much on Gallup (or, for that matter, favour 1 pollster over another). When you having 20 pollsters saying X and 1 saying Y it is pretty clear which is the outlier. I get that both sides are trying to push the 'we have the lead' card but right-wing media are skewing everything so badly that it is going to leave a lot of angry people on Nov 7th after weeks of 'we're winning' and it turns out they lose... Michale,

I wouldn't rely too much on Gallup (or, for that matter, favour 1 pollster over another). When you having 20 pollsters saying X and 1 saying Y it is pretty clear which is the outlier.

I get that both sides are trying to push the 'we have the lead' card but right-wing media are skewing everything so badly that it is going to leave a lot of angry people on Nov 7th after weeks of 'we're winning' and it turns out they lose...

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28753 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 11:20:40 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28753 http://www.caintv.com/ShockerDesMoinesRegisterendors-647 For Obama, the hits just keep on comin'!! Michale.... http://www.caintv.com/ShockerDesMoinesRegisterendors-647

For Obama, the hits just keep on comin'!!

Michale....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28751 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 10:48:00 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28751 <I>if i were obama right now i'd be pulling every favor with the labor bureau to get them to fudge the statistics.</I> Obama is already working on that. He is trying to get his Labor Department to delay release of the new numbers until after the election.. Michale..... if i were obama right now i'd be pulling every favor with the labor bureau to get them to fudge the statistics.

Obama is already working on that. He is trying to get his Labor Department to delay release of the new numbers until after the election..

Michale.....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28750 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 10:40:13 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28750 <B>Obama accepts 'Osama bin Laden' donations</B> http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/obama-accepts-osama-bin-laden-donations/ How hilarious... What would have made the story more effective is if (tortured syntax?? :D) WND would have tried the same ploy with Camp Romney... :D Michale....... Obama accepts 'Osama bin Laden' donations
http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/obama-accepts-osama-bin-laden-donations/

How hilarious...

What would have made the story more effective is if (tortured syntax?? :D) WND would have tried the same ploy with Camp Romney... :D

Michale.......

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28749 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 10:19:00 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28749 Liz, Sounds great! :D Either way, it's going to be a banner crop for Weigantia... :D Michale..... Liz,

Sounds great! :D

Either way, it's going to be a banner crop for Weigantia... :D

Michale.....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28748 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 10:18:11 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28748 <B>But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.</B> Obama is toast... Michale But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Obama is toast...

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28747 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 10:15:45 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28747 http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx Very interesting to note.. In the early votes, Romney is up by 7 points. 52% Romney, 45% Obama.. Keep in mind, this is NOT polling, this is FACT.... It's doubly devastating for Obama because, normally, early voters swing Left, not Right. That's why Dems are so worried about Hurricane Sandy.. If Obama is ALREADY in trouble in the EARLY voting, the he doesn't stand a chance in the regular election... Michale..... http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

Very interesting to note..

In the early votes, Romney is up by 7 points. 52% Romney, 45% Obama..

Keep in mind, this is NOT polling, this is FACT....

It's doubly devastating for Obama because, normally, early voters swing Left, not Right. That's why Dems are so worried about Hurricane Sandy..

If Obama is ALREADY in trouble in the EARLY voting, the he doesn't stand a chance in the regular election...

Michale.....

]]> By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28740 Chris Weigant Tue, 30 Oct 2012 06:03:34 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28740 michty6 - Obama charted one fairly good poll in NC recently. It was probably an outlier, but I'm keeping a close eye on it. Virginia is the most interesting one, to me at least, because if O wins there, it could go reliably "blue" for the foreseeable future. Which is astounding to me, but then I haven't been in VA in quite a while. VA stunned me in 2008 -- the state with the Confederate capital going for a black candidate. How times have changed... Dems might increase in the Senate? Really? Haven't been paying as much attention to that, I should check it out... -CW michty6 -

Obama charted one fairly good poll in NC recently. It was probably an outlier, but I'm keeping a close eye on it. Virginia is the most interesting one, to me at least, because if O wins there, it could go reliably "blue" for the foreseeable future. Which is astounding to me, but then I haven't been in VA in quite a while.

VA stunned me in 2008 -- the state with the Confederate capital going for a black candidate. How times have changed...

Dems might increase in the Senate? Really? Haven't been paying as much attention to that, I should check it out...

-CW

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28728 michty6 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 01:36:42 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28728 Based on polls and reports from early voting, it looks like Florida and North Carolina are the 2 battleground States Obama is most likely to lose (although his early voting numbers in NC are very strong). It will take something unforeseen happening for him to lose the other battlegrounds (Virginia and Colorado are close but trending O in the past week). I am going to stick with my earlier prediction that Romney will win NC but lose Florida and lose every other battleground. I may change this nearer the election (either way for both NC and Florida), will see ;) The Senate is looking very good and that Democrats might actually increase their lead there. Tea-party Senate candidates were not a good idea for the Republicans... Based on polls and reports from early voting, it looks like Florida and North Carolina are the 2 battleground States Obama is most likely to lose (although his early voting numbers in NC are very strong). It will take something unforeseen happening for him to lose the other battlegrounds (Virginia and Colorado are close but trending O in the past week).

I am going to stick with my earlier prediction that Romney will win NC but lose Florida and lose every other battleground. I may change this nearer the election (either way for both NC and Florida), will see ;)

The Senate is looking very good and that Democrats might actually increase their lead there. Tea-party Senate candidates were not a good idea for the Republicans...

]]> By: Elizabeth Miller http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28727 Elizabeth Miller Tue, 30 Oct 2012 01:32:34 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28727 Michale, You can count me in! Chris takes installments, right? Michale,

You can count me in! Chris takes installments, right?

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28726 Michale Tue, 30 Oct 2012 00:06:24 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28726 <I> Romney pretty much has only one path: a last-minute surge which breaks all the undecideds in almost all of the tossup states his way. The problem for Obama is, this is now looking quite possible instead of ludicrously unlikely.</I> Exactly.... Especially when one considers that, historically speaking, last minute undecided voters usually go for the challenger, rather than the incumbent... I am confident of this that I'll re-iterate my challenge to Weigantians... If Obama wins, I will up my per comment donation from .50 to $1 per comment during the Annual Weigantia Holiday Fundraiser... If Romney wins, everyone who does 100% matching donations will match my total for 200%.... Who's in??? :D Michale..... Romney pretty much has only one path: a last-minute surge which breaks all the undecideds in almost all of the tossup states his way. The problem for Obama is, this is now looking quite possible instead of ludicrously unlikely.

Exactly....

Especially when one considers that, historically speaking, last minute undecided voters usually go for the challenger, rather than the incumbent...

I am confident of this that I'll re-iterate my challenge to Weigantians...

If Obama wins, I will up my per comment donation from .50 to $1 per comment during the Annual Weigantia Holiday Fundraiser...

If Romney wins, everyone who does 100% matching donations will match my total for 200%....

Who's in??? :D

Michale.....

]]> By: nypoet22 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/29/2012-electoral-math-one-week-out/#comment-28725 nypoet22 Tue, 30 Oct 2012 00:05:15 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6466#comment-28725 <i>the real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures.</i> if i were romney right now i'd be telling all my business buddies to start firing people right away. if i were obama right now i'd be pulling every favor with the labor bureau to get them to fudge the statistics. the real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures.

if i were romney right now i'd be telling all my business buddies to start firing people right away.

if i were obama right now i'd be pulling every favor with the labor bureau to get them to fudge the statistics.

]]>