Since I know ya'all SWEAR by polls...

At least by the ones that say what ya'all want to hear.. :D

Michale.....

Who said that 2012 will be just like 2010??

Not me..

*I* am saying it's going to be 20 times WORSE for Democrats....

2012 is going to make 2010 seem downright PLEASANT for Democrats by comparison...

We'll know in just 3 weeks who'se right and who'se wrong.. :D

I hope ya'all can take it.. :D

Michale.....

You mean when polls said Republicans were going to win by 9 points but they won by 6? Yes it's funny, you don't hear that mentioned often in Republican conversations about the polls lol.

But yes keep hoping this is 2010, Presidential elections and midterms are the same thing. Keep repeating it and it might come true: it will be like 2010, it will be like 2010, it will be like 2010.

And that is exactly why Weigantians are in for a rude awakening on 7 Nov..

It's actually ironic. The In-The-Bag-For-Obama MSM is actually doing Team Obama a grave disservice. By over-sampling Democrats and under-sampling Republicans, the MSM is giving the Left a false sense of complacency. Making the Left feel that they don't have to work hard to win...

David, michty, et al..

Remember how ya'all felt after the Great Democrat Shellacking Of 2010??? Ya'all were totally astounded, wondering how this could have possibly happen..

It's going to be just like that on 7 Nov only 20 times worse. Because THIS time around, ya'all had fair warning on how a biased MSM can screw with your heads...

:D

The "Told Ya So"s will be flying... er.. Fast And Furious around here on 7 Nov.... :D

Michale.....

You know it's bad when the conservative Supreme Court is even saying it's ridiculous

http://www.romneytaxplan.com/

They've bought advertising on Google so when you Google 'Romney tax plan' this is the number 1 hit. I expect this is deliberate to catch the people Googling this during the debate tonight. Very clever.

Ok, here's something you may not have seen yet.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/16/bush_v_gore_saves_early_voting_in_ohio.html

This is good news for voting!

http://www.romneytaxplan.com/

54.8% of the electorate doesn't like the back deck, thinks it's shoddy workmanship and cost WAY too much.

I wonder who they blame for the poor deck? Let's see:
Obama approval rating: 50.5%
Congress approval rating: 13.8%

Seems to me like 49.5% blame the President, while 86.2% blame Congress. I'd be worried if I was an incumbent in Congress...

;)

It's hard to say, what with 53% having hired a totally inexperienced contractor in the first place, which doesn't exactly reek of sound judgment. But since the contractor was the biggest bullshoot artist ever to hit the home improvement scene, there's hope that there are enough dissatisfied customers out there who won't allow themselves to be duped by him a second time around.

It sure would be nice to have some reliable polling to go by. But since pollsters are committed to under-sampling Republicans... http://on.wsj.com/RHcPLR ...one can safely assume that the numbers are actually higher for Romney than the skewed polls are showing.

For all the media talk of how 'close' the election was pre-debate (it really wasn't), it is only now 'close' and even in this 'close' scenario Obama has the edge, especially in the Electoral College where the path to a Romney win without Ohio is limited. Romney still has a lot of work to do but is running out of time: Ohio was +5.5 Obama pre-debate, is +2.2 (and trending back to) Obama now.

The good news for Romney? I think he will win tonight's debate. The interesting part will be the media reaction, if they call him out on his lies this time. I used to do a lot of debating and it's pretty hard to come up with a strategy to defeat someone who will just openly lie and change every single thing they believe in to make you look bad.

For example, in debate 1 Obama used a lot of the fairly standard tactic of the 'pre-rebuttal' - this is where you predict your opponents argument and denounce them before your opponent talks on the subject, putting them in an awkward position if they have a prepared speech that you just ripped apart. For example 'my opponent believes X/Y/Z about taxes, which is wrong because of A/B/C'.

Except since Romney just flat out lied about his policies it didn't work and made Obama look stupid:
Obama: 'My opponent has a tax cut...'
Romney: 'I don't have a tax cut'
Obama: 'My opponent thinks regulation is not necessary'
Romney: 'I love regulation!'
Obama: 'My opponent has no plan for pre-existing conditions'
Romney: 'My plan covers pre-existing conditions and does all the things Obamacare does, plus everyone gets a free Unicorn'

If Obama does this again he will 'lose' again. I just can't think of any strategy, other than calling your opponent out on his lies (which apparently is 'Un-Presidential'), to beat an opponent who is willing to do or say anything and has absolutely no principles. It's a sad state of affairs when a large chunk of the viewers are so ignorant they haven't even a vague idea what the policies of Romney are. Let's hope Obama has something up his sleeve.

One thing I'd do if I was him would be to ask every single person who asks a question what they do for a living and if they are a '47%er' (which the law of averages would suggest half would be!) drill this point home about how Romney doesn't give a crap about them. I still haven't heard Romney or Ryan successfully rebut the 47% comments other than to say 'I will govern for 100%', 'I misspoke' or 'I didn't speak elegantly' which are hardly proper rebuttals.

/rant!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

39.8% of the electorate likes the back deck...

54.8% of the electorate doesn't like the back deck, thinks it's shoddy workmanship and cost WAY too much...

So, how many of those 54.8% would hire the same company to build the front deck???

All standard caveats re: polls are in place...

Michale....

Uh... That would be 191 EVs..

My bust...

Michale

If it's the former, my apologies...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Since the last time we visited this chart, Obama has stayed the same at 201 EVs.

Romney went UP by 10 to 192 EVs.

And the Toss Ups went down by Romney's 10 EVs...

Ya'all said you wouldn't be worried until and unless the RCP polls would warrant it...

Are ya worried yet?? :D

Michale.....

Florida is DEFINITELY not going to go for Obama this time around..

Matter of fact, most states that went Obama in '08 are channeling their inner Scotty..

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
-Scotty, STAR TREK, Friday's Child

It's like I said before in the Biden Unleashed commentary..

If you hired Obama Inc to build a back deck and it was a lousy job and cost 10 times more than it was supposed to.......

WHY would anyone want to hire Obama Inc to build a front deck???

It simply makes NO sense...

As always you present a "relatively" unbiased look and that is appreciated.

here, here.... :D

Michale....

CO .6 Romney a state Obama won in 08 by 9.0%

NH .7% Obama where he won by 9.6% and kerry won also

VA .8 Obama he won by 6.3 in 2008

NV 1.6% Obama but he had 12% in 2008

OH 2.2% Obama a crucial must win state for both sides

WI 2.3% Obama but he had almost 14% in 08

FL 2.5% Romney a state Obama won in 08 and would love to carry

IO 2.7% Obama a drop from his 9.5% in 08

MI is 4.4 % Obama he had 16% in 08

NC is 4.7% Romney again it was an Obama state in 08

PA is 4.7% Obama but when that state gets close it is trouble.

So yes, Obama still has a slight lead but most of those states are true toss ups. The numbers show a huge drop from his 2008 popularity and a trend of movement towards Romney.

It is interesting to see what tonight's debate brings after the VP debate.

Also we have the late night news of Hillary taking one for the team. But will hiding behind her skirt tails help?? Remains to be seen.

As always you present a "relatively" unbiased look and that is appreciated.

(cross posted to Huffpo)