http://twitchy.com/2012/10/12/left-wing-sicko-hopes-someone-impregnates-paul-ryans-13-year-old-daughter/

Ya know, this really doesn't bother me, beyond the natural disgust that ANY human being would feel..

What REALLY bothers me is that no one on the Left takes this kind of garbage to task, UNLESS it comes from the Right..

What really REALLY bothers me is that the Left pretends that THEY are all goodness and light and it's only the RIGHT who wallows in this kind of crap...

But, as usual, the facts say different...

Michale.....

http://twitchy.com/2012/10/12/left-wing-sicko-hopes-someone-impregnates-paul-ryans-13-year-old-daughter/

I didn't think so....

{sssiiiigggggghhhhhhh}

That's really a shame...

Michale.....

If true, that is to her credit...

But that doesn't excuse the hypocrisy from Team Obama over this???

That doesn't excuse the silence from the Left in general..

Where's the condemnation from everyone here??

If you are a black woman who supports a conservative candidate or philosophy, you are vilified in the most vile and racist manner imaginable.

And the Left (from President Obama on up to everyone here) seems to be OK because, after all, silence gives assent...

The Left would go utterly and ballisticly batshit if a Democrat was treated in such a manner by the Right.. Not that it has ever happened in recent history, but if it had, the Left would lose their minds.

Yet, when elements of the Hysterical Left acts in such a vile, disgusting and racist manner, the Left overall, doesn't say diddly...

So, the ONLY logical conclusion is that the Left really isn't against racism at all.. The Left is just against racism when it comes from the Right. When racism comes from the Left, it's A-OK with the Left.

It's the ONLY explanation that fits the facts...

But, I am willing to admit I am wrong. I am hoping like hell that I *AM* wrong..

Does anyone have any links from Left Wing blogs/sites/commentaries that condemn the vile and racist treatment of Dash and Love???

Michale......

I'm in the middle of posting today's article, just have a second...

You might want to reconsider your example. Fluke not only condemned the comments, I think she actually called Dash up personally. I can provide a link, just too rushed right now.

-CW

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/10/confirmed-obama-sent-same-form-letter-to-parents-of-all-fallen-soldiers-marines-seals/

But not that.....

Michale.....

I mean, Obama called up Fluke when she was attacked by the Right....

Is Obama going to call up Dash??? I mean, after all, there are no RED states, no BLUE states, only UNITED states....

Right????

On the plus side.... At least Obama didn't refuse to buy Dash a beer...

(lame, I know, but that's all I could come up with... :D)

Michale......

Where is the condemnation from the Left???

Michale.....

foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/09/ap-publishes-unflattering-pic-romney-bending-over/

AP is no more or no less guilty of political bias than the Right was when the Right made an issue of this picture from Obama..

oddee.com/_media/imgs/articles2/a97675_Barack-Obama-staring-at-Mayora-Tavares1.jpg

In other words, we've got a lot of problems MUCH bigger than this...

Michale.....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444897304578046260406091012.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

Do I believe that the Obama Administration would cook the books to make Obama look better??

Abso-frakin-loutly...

Do I believe they did it in this case.

No I don't... They would be stoopid to do it for the exact reasons that we have seen. They would be caught......

But, that's not really the issue... The issue, I believe, is the idea that the Right is being crazy just SUGGESTING it..

Postulate a scenario where President Bush had just gotten royally shellacked in a debate by a Democrat opponent..

Further postulate that, a couple days later, an unprecedented and nearly impossible drop or rise in a statistic that benefited Bush occurred...

Is it outside the realm of possibility that the entire Left would react in the exact same manner the Right acted in the here and now?? Back in 2003, a current Obama official himself suggested that the Bush Administration had "cooked the books" in response to a favorable Unemployment figure.

I think it's safe to say that we ALL agree that the Left would react in the exact same manner that the Right has, given the same set of circumstances...

In other words, while it's unlikely that Team Obama would really cook the books, the suggestion that the books COULD be cooked is not the hysterical irrational paranoia that some would make it out to be...

Michale.....

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

The updated prediction shows an even bigger win for Romney and was completed prior to the PR debacle that has hit Team Obama in the last few weeks...

It should be noted that this study is *peer reviewed*...

While *I* am of the opinion that the peer review process doesn't mean as much as it used to, I know that ya'all are really big on the peer-review stamp, so that's why I mention it...

It should also be noted that this study of the Electoral College approach is the only one of it's kind in depth and broad spectrum analysis, which might explain why it's the only one that has this prediction.

Time will tell how accurate the prediction is, but if the algorithm is as accurate as it's past "predictions", well.......

An 89% success rate is hard to argue with...

Michale.....

http://news.yahoo.com/state-dept-reveals-details-benghazi-attack-062900114.html

It seems the official story from the Administration is more in keeping with the reality of what occurred in Benghazi..

There was no protest. Everything was quiet when the attack happened...

This is a major black eye for the Administration's vaunted Foreign Policy prowess...

On the plus side, however, it IS heartening to see the Obama Administration come clean and tell the American people the truth about what occurred. It's likely that Obama was under intense pressure to just ignore the incident and hope it fizzles out. The fact that Team Obama told the truth, THIS close to the election, is a plus in the INTEGRITY column for Obama..

Michale....

COMMENT NOTE: From now until the election, I am going to try something new. For every slam against the Obama Administration I post, I am going to also try and come up with something positive, something good that Obama has done.. Hopefully, this will show a more even keeled approach and give credit where credit is due.

We'll see how it works out...

Michale

Very much appreciated...

Michale

In tracking seven odds makers who predict the winner of the upcoming election (the 538 Blog plus six upstanding off-shore on-line betting establishments), I find surprisingly strong support for the old saw that Republicans can't win the Presidency without winning Ohio.

I've stumbled onto a very simple, yet uncannily accurate, procedure for predicting the relationship between odds of victory in each of the 50 states and DC and the resulting chance of a candidate winning the electoral college. The math behind the observation is a bit complicated, but the procedure itself is very simple.

In column one, rank order the states and DC by descending odds that Obama will carry that state on election day (column 2). In column 3, tabulate the electoral votes associated with each state, in column 4 compute the cumulative electoral votes as you descend column 3. Now, trace your finger down column 4 until you meet or exceed 270 electoral votes. Cross laterally to the probability for that row in column 2, which will almost always be very close to the probability the odds maker gives Obama for winning the election with 270+ electoral votes.

That state, or one of the states if there is a tie, is almost always Ohio! It seems some old saws are mostly true.

See:

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/04/debating-formats/#comment-27699

-CW

Although I am not quite ready to jump into commenting yet, but I just had to stop in and tell everyone how utterly appreciative I am of the support seen here.

As much as I like to think of myself as emotionless and objective, I have to admit that the comments here brought a tear to my eye...

*All* the comments were appreciated, but I would like to give a sound-out to our host for his kind words and to Ninjaf for her especially touching comment..

It's heartening to see that, when the chips are down, Left, Right, Democrat, Republican, Liberal, Conservative doesn't mean diddly squat...

In the heated discussions that are sure to come in the future, I plan on keeping these last few days' comments uppermost in my mind..

Thank you, one and all....

Michale

Oh sorry I thought you were CW for a second there. Well I've written it out so I'm posting it now...

The Pew poll's sample of likely voters included 36% who identified themselves as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 30% as independents. Its September survey included 29% who said they lean more toward the Republican party, 39% Democratic and 30% who said they were independents.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443294904578044993155023484.html?mod=WSJ_Election_LEFTTopStories

I realize I've been slack once again, but I just went back and answered comments reaching all the way to last Monday, so go check and see what I've had to say about the past week's free-for-all.

:-)

-CW

I really need to add a "this is my source" bit to this column series. My data is from electoral-vote.com.

tinsldr2 -

See my response over at HuffPo, where I mention your reliance on "Romney math"... your numbers just don't add up, sorry.

First case: adds up to 266EV for Romney.

Second case: adds up to 269EV for Romney.

270's the mark to hit...

:-)

-CW

You slay me not giving the numbers? I use RCP averages:

NH Obama 6
MO Romney 5.2
NV Obama 4.6
IA Obama 3.2
OH Obama 3.0
NC Romney .8
VA Obama .3
CO Obama .2
FL Tie

So assuming NH, MO, and NV don't change that is 257 to 191

That means Romney needs to win OH, VA, NC, and FL and can lose IA and CO

or Romney needs to win IA VA, NC, FL and CO and NEVADA, and can lose OH

But OH is really the one to watch and the 3% Obama lead includes a pre-debate +8 Obama and +4 obama poll and two post Debate polls that are +1 R and +1 O (although one of those was slanted R)

So OH is closer to Romney then it looks and trending.

Bottom line the national Polls are closer to the states and the race is FAR from over.

There is no doubt Romney got a bump and right-leaning pollsters were (obviously) quick to accentuate it, making analyzing the effect harder.

I don't know how your EV analysis doesn't see it more clearly though CW. Most EV analysis I looked at before the debate was starting to get to the point where STRONG Obama was >270. Now, post debate, Obama is at the point where strong + leaning is now only just around 270 (your graph does show this but it doesn't show the peak in Strong Obama that happened pre-debate).

Other bumps, just to pick a few I follow:
- Sam Wang @ Princeton Election: Obama pre-debate 6% 'meta (EV) edge'; post 2.2%.
- Nate Silver @ 538: Obama pre-debate around 85% probability to win the Electoral College; post-debate 75%.
- RCP average was around Obama +3.1 pre-debate and is now +0.5 post-debate.

Funnily enough today I have seen people complaining that RCP is right-leaning because of their treatment of the Gallup poll (ignoring the entire poll being +5 Obama by only including in their average the part of the poll that is post-debate - they have never done this before). I expect the shift to Democrats believing pollsters are biased instead of Republicans to be totally complete if Romney (at last) manages to obtain a lead in the national average on RCP in 2012 for the first time!

Personally I think Obama was +3-4% (in Electoral College EV) pre-debate and is probably around 1-2% post debate/job numbers.

The problem Romney has is that Romney v.8.0 (or whatever version he is at now) from the debates appears to be liked (at last!) but he may have changed his position on every single policy too late...