Comments on: Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2012 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/ Reality-based political commentary Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:13:13 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27769 Chris Weigant Tue, 09 Oct 2012 07:22:18 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27769 michty6 [3] - Or seniors, for that matter. I've always thought the blowback for the voter suppression thing will take place among seniors who are denied their right to vote. They'll be life-long (for howeverlong that means) Democrats as a result. -CW michty6 [3] -

Or seniors, for that matter. I've always thought the blowback for the voter suppression thing will take place among seniors who are denied their right to vote. They'll be life-long (for howeverlong that means) Democrats as a result.

-CW

]]> By: nypoet22 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27654 nypoet22 Thu, 04 Oct 2012 02:51:13 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27654 romney won the debate, by a lot. not that i'm particularly pleased or disappointed, but that's what happened. any thoughts on how (if?) the debates will impact the polls and the election? romney won the debate, by a lot. not that i'm particularly pleased or disappointed, but that's what happened. any thoughts on how (if?) the debates will impact the polls and the election?

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27651 michty6 Wed, 03 Oct 2012 19:06:37 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27651 Awesome comedy sketch, Obama tries a different approach with obstructionist Republicans ;) http://vimeo.com/39115241 Awesome comedy sketch, Obama tries a different approach with obstructionist Republicans ;)

http://vimeo.com/39115241

]]> By: LeaningBlue http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27650 LeaningBlue Wed, 03 Oct 2012 17:45:55 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27650 Incredibly slow day, this. The "game changer" is repudiated and the purveyors mocked; half life was not even a full cycle. Mainstream is trumpeting a tightening race, as do the commentators during halftime of a Superbowl (the other Superbowl, the football one) when it looks like the game is slipping out of competitiveness and they fear the viewers will tune out and head for the guacamole. I'm going to watch the debate, the way I always do: with the sound off. Debates aren't about information; formats are designed for sound bites. The only thing they can't control is the gestalt. The pundits, for some reason think it's about information or about some Hostess packaged sweet alternative to Twinkies: Zingers. Americans watch debates like poker players watch the others at the table; they look for the tells. And, in a debate, I'll say to the pundits: if you can't find the stiff in the room, it's you. Incredibly slow day, this. The "game changer" is repudiated and the purveyors mocked; half life was not even a full cycle. Mainstream is trumpeting a tightening race, as do the commentators during halftime of a Superbowl (the other Superbowl, the football one) when it looks like the game is slipping out of competitiveness and they fear the viewers will tune out and head for the guacamole.

I'm going to watch the debate, the way I always do: with the sound off. Debates aren't about information; formats are designed for sound bites. The only thing they can't control is the gestalt. The pundits, for some reason think it's about information or about some Hostess packaged sweet alternative to Twinkies: Zingers.

Americans watch debates like poker players watch the others at the table; they look for the tells. And, in a debate, I'll say to the pundits: if you can't find the stiff in the room, it's you.

]]> By: michty6 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27647 michty6 Wed, 03 Oct 2012 13:28:32 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27647 LB, <I>There was a time that the Democrats didn't really take voter suppression seriously</I> I think Republicans will see some backlash for this in the election this year. If they thought African-Americans turned out in record numbers in 2008 wait till the word spreads about Republicans efforts to disenfranchise them... <I>Today, PA makes 11</I> The sad news is that the ruling today didn't stop the PA voter ID laws but merely disallowed them from being enforced in this Presidential election because it is too soon. They will be there in future elections though... CW, Another important thing to remember, especially in American politics where you have a 2 horse race, is the approval numbers of Romney. RCP has added these in recently. To compare the RCP averages of the 2: Obama +4.8 Romney -2.4 Which is a big reason why Obama is doing so well in the polls just now. A good debate tonight and solid job numbers on Friday, then this thing is over. LB,
There was a time that the Democrats didn't really take voter suppression seriously

I think Republicans will see some backlash for this in the election this year. If they thought African-Americans turned out in record numbers in 2008 wait till the word spreads about Republicans efforts to disenfranchise them...

Today, PA makes 11

The sad news is that the ruling today didn't stop the PA voter ID laws but merely disallowed them from being enforced in this Presidential election because it is too soon. They will be there in future elections though...

CW,
Another important thing to remember, especially in American politics where you have a 2 horse race, is the approval numbers of Romney. RCP has added these in recently. To compare the RCP averages of the 2:

Obama +4.8
Romney -2.4

Which is a big reason why Obama is doing so well in the polls just now. A good debate tonight and solid job numbers on Friday, then this thing is over.

]]> By: LeaningBlue http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27642 LeaningBlue Wed, 03 Oct 2012 01:43:49 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27642 There was a time that the Democrats didn't really take voter suppression seriously. I don't think they believed in their hearts that anyone would have such depraved contempt for the root of the American system as to attempt to put systemic suppression in place. But the decade after Bush v Gore, characterized by shameful, targeted redistricting, that made the venerable partisan traditions of gerrymandering seem egalitarian in comparison, turned on the lights. First by observing the feckless neo-cons in their transparent deceptions in the run-up to the war, and finally understanding the methods and the goals of those more sinister like Rove, it became clear. After these dark agents deployed their puppet state legislatures on voting access, the Democrats countered with lawyers armed with the Constitution in the federal courts. In two years, in the count of Ari Berman writing in _The Nation_, ten suppressive ID laws have gone down since 2010. Today, PA makes 11. ( http://www.thenation.com/blog/170287/courts-block-gop-voter-suppression-laws# ) Polls wouldn't count for much if the majorities represented in the polls couldn't vote. In that way, it's far better than it was, and a far bigger nightmare for ol' Karl and his cronies. There was a time that the Democrats didn't really take voter suppression seriously. I don't think they believed in their hearts that anyone would have such depraved contempt for the root of the American system as to attempt to put systemic suppression in place.

But the decade after Bush v Gore, characterized by shameful, targeted redistricting, that made the venerable partisan traditions of gerrymandering seem egalitarian in comparison, turned on the lights. First by observing the feckless neo-cons in their transparent deceptions in the run-up to the war, and finally understanding the methods and the goals of those more sinister like Rove, it became clear.

After these dark agents deployed their puppet state legislatures on voting access, the Democrats countered with lawyers armed with the Constitution in the federal courts. In two years, in the count of Ari Berman writing in _The Nation_, ten suppressive ID laws have gone down since 2010. Today, PA makes 11. ( http://www.thenation.com/blog/170287/courts-block-gop-voter-suppression-laws# )

Polls wouldn't count for much if the majorities represented in the polls couldn't vote. In that way, it's far better than it was, and a far bigger nightmare for ol' Karl and his cronies.

]]> By: LeaningBlue http://www.chrisweigant.com/2012/10/02/opw1209/#comment-27641 LeaningBlue Wed, 03 Oct 2012 00:54:59 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=6330#comment-27641 Approval is not the same as likability. Approval is not the same as trust. A big reason why the pundits are dumbfounded that the economy is not crushing a sitting president is that, while the public may not approve of everything he's done (and there's plenty to disapprove of), a clear majority both like and trust the President, and believe that he'll try to do what is in their best interest. There's speculation that Gov. Romney is going to try to present himself as though he cares about the common citizen. Not only do people know he really doesn't, many don't like it when a patrician -and, even worse, a plutocrat- tries to pretend he does. If all MR is bringing to the debate are anecdotes of the Little People from the Campaign Trail, it's going to be an uncomfortable evening. Approval is not the same as likability. Approval is not the same as trust. A big reason why the pundits are dumbfounded that the economy is not crushing a sitting president is that, while the public may not approve of everything he's done (and there's plenty to disapprove of), a clear majority both like and trust the President, and believe that he'll try to do what is in their best interest.

There's speculation that Gov. Romney is going to try to present himself as though he cares about the common citizen. Not only do people know he really doesn't, many don't like it when a patrician -and, even worse, a plutocrat- tries to pretend he does.

If all MR is bringing to the debate are anecdotes of the Little People from the Campaign Trail, it's going to be an uncomfortable evening.

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