NBC is saying with 'high confidence' the VP pick is down to 3: Tim Pawlenty, Rob Portman or Paul Ryan. If this is true, then, based on what I just said, my money is definitely on Portman!

Both Biden and Palin had a bunch of touch up edits to wikipedia right before they were picked and of the VP short list, Portman has, by far, the most edits recently. Or maybe they have caught on and it's just redirection...

Oh, and there's a minor mistake at the end. Georgia has a more recent poll, forgot to update the "old polls" list.

-CW

Yeah, I wrote most of this Tuesday night, and had to quickly adjust for some changes Wednesday morning. The Colorado polls hadn't shown up yet, so they weren't included in this analysis. Good eye!

If I was writing it today, I'd put CO in Too Close To Call. If Romney gets another few good polls here, I'd move it to Lean Romney, but it'll likely stay in TCTC for a while.

michty6 -

WI showed a poll less than 5%, that's why it got into Barely. Today, it has moved back to Weak. Down in the "gut feel" part, I have it as Lean Obama, but if a few more solid +5 polls come in, it'll move up to Probable.

As for Veep, I think it could also come from VA. Or even NM, for a surprise. But choosing VA would put the state a lot closer to Romney, I would think.

-CW

One query:

"Wisconsin and Virginia weakened even further, moving from Weak to Barely Obama."

Why you have moved Wisconsin this way? All polling out recently indicates otherwise. Last 6 polls have Obama +5, +6, +3, +7, +6. I'd say this is moving toward probable, not barely Obama...

Aside from this, I agree with the premise that both have shored up their support very well - I guess this is what happens in an election during a time when the electorate is very polarised. The battleground states appear to be shrinking in number.

But on the electoral college front, July was a very bad month for Romney. Only Missouri moved his way in the battleground states, everything else went Obama. And even in the national polls Obama is now +3.9 on the RCP average which is higher than he was at this point 4 years ago vs McCain (+3.6)

I'm sure you have a point to make with respect to that link you provided so why don't you just try to make it?

You should know that I don't make a habit out of clicking on drive-by links. And, besides, I'm far more interested in what you have to say about it. Perhaps we may even have an intelligent discussion. Stranger things have happened, you know.

Yeah, I don't know about Colorado at this point, CW. There's been some activity there, lately. Quinnipiac's got Romney ahead by five points, and Rasmussen has them tied. And both are Likely Voters. So I'm not even sure that state can be considered a leaner.

My take away from all of this is that President Obama is likely to win a second term. That's the good news.

However, the next four years under the steady stewardship of Obama/Biden/Geithener(I'm still hoping he sticks around in one form or another...call me a cockeyed optimist) is not likely to be substantially more effective than the first four years due to continued obstruction by the Republican cult of economic failure and foreign policy disaster as a result of the failure of Democrats to gain EFFECTIVE control of both houses of Congress.