ROTFL ... I would rather watch a cattle drive than golf on TV :)

"Wait, I can be dull, want me to be dull? What a nice shade of gray. How about some white bread with mayonnaise. I want to watch golf on television."
-Urgo, STARGATE SG1

:D

Michale.....

Idunno, CW. That's gonna be a tough one. Upstaging Romney seems about as hard as showing up. He has the stage presence of toast ... without butter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/15/opinion/mitt-likes-music-including-this.html

Heheh ...
-David

Wouldn't that look a little desperate on O's part? I don't know that he wants, or can afford, to come across that way.

Let me say that, given Obama's history of discarding political liabilities it would not surprise me if Obama introduced Biden to the undercarriage...

But, on the other hand, it must be getting REALLY crowded under there...

"We're gonna need a bigger boat."
-Roy Scheider, JAWS

Michale.....

I've heard the governor of NM mentioned. She's female (obviously) and also Latino. Two birds with one stone for Romney.

But Romney's going to have to be very careful not to pick someone who will constantly upstage him (a la Sarah Palin). This is why I don't think Chris Christie even has a shot, personally.

As for Hillary VP... I dunno, I've heard this proposed, but I kind of doubt it'll happen. I think the ticket will be Obama/Biden once again, personally.

But then I could be wrong.

:-)

-CW

If he does, Obama might as well concede the election now.. :D

Michale....

I suspect that Mitt Romney is going to nominate a female VeeP to try to woo the part of the electorate he most struggles with.

What if ... Obama nominated Hillary as VeeP instead of Biden. It would set her up for a run in 2016. And it would counter the Romney "making history w/ a female VeeP".

If it happens, just remember you heard it here first folks ... :)

-David

Senators to Unveil the ‘Ex-Patriot Act’ to Respond to Facebook’s Saverin’s Tax ‘Scheme’
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/senators-to-unveil-the-ex-patriot-act-to-respond-to-facebooks-saverins-tax-scheme/

I am not a big fan of TAX TAX TAX, but am willing to make an exception in this case..

Republicans would be totally stoopid NOT to get behind this...

Michale.....

Just
Entered
Educational
Processing

These days, they're called 'noobs' or 'rooks'.

Michale

I don't know WHAT I was thinking.. For some reason, I conflated Jerry Brown with Pete Wilson..

There IS a tenuous connection between the two. Brown lost to Wilson for a Senate seat in '82.. But I can't claim that.. I dunno what happened..

Brain fart, I guess...

Lotsa JEEPs posting in this thread. :D Hope it's a sign of things to come. :D

Michale....

I'm in favor, but my state already has it.

First, welcome to the site!

Sorry for the long delay in posting your comment, there was a technical problem beyond my control.

From now on, you should be able to post comments and have them appear instantly, as long as you don't post more than one link per comment.

I've written about the NPV movement here before, and am interested to see its progress. Have any new states been added to the total in the past year or so? I haven't been paying close attention, I admit.

-CW

Not enough attention is being paid to WI, because I think it'll be portrayed as a bellweather state, no matter which side wins.

-CW

He was mayor of SD? I didn't know that. He was mayor of Oakland, but that was just a few years ago.

Was that around the time his dad was governor?

-CW

Yea, I remember when Jerry Brown was Mayor of San Diego..

I don't remember much about him, other than he WAS mayor.. And seemed to be on friendly terms with my dad.. :D

NC may be a bridge too far for Obama this time around. VA seems more do-able for him, though. But we'll see...

While it's true that hindsight is always 20/20, Team Obama must be wondering, vis a vis North Carolina, if someone in the administration is cursed....

"Did Grandma ever piss off a gypsy??"
-Dean Winchester, SUPERNATURAL, My Heart Will Go On

:D

Michale.....

Nah, Brown's been playing this game for a while. It's a cycle -- threaten cuts so that his tax proposals pass. It's not really anything new, although the national media seem to think so.

Oh, yeah, THAT sex scandal -- I offhandedly gave out some MDDOTW awards to these folks a while back... looks like at least one of them needs another one....

NC may be a bridge too far for Obama this time around. VA seems more do-able for him, though. But we'll see...

-CW

They were at a virtual tie a month ago..

Ya'all worried???

Michale.....

I would add to the list Greece melting down and leaving the Eurozone, and possible fallout in the US economy.

Oooooo, nice catch..

Yea, Greece is financially imploding a LOT faster than I would have predicted..

Speaking of financial imploding, what's your take on California and Brown's ultimatum, "TAX OR CUT"??

Portend of (national) things to come???

You talking about the Edwards trial, or some other sex scandal? Do tell!

Edwards is sooo 2009... :D

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/story/11101581/

To sum up.. A semi-bigwig in the NC Democratic Party was nailed for sexual harassment. He resigned. THE bigwig in the NC Dem Party was being pressured to resign because he was involved by cover-up in the original harassment or something like that.. It's hard to keep track. The only thing harder than keeping track of DEM sex scandals is keeping track of GOP sex scandals.. :D

Said NC DEM bigwig promised to resign, then reneged on the promise..

Long story short (too late.. :D) a lot of uppity up NC Dems have egg on their face and Obama is coming to town..

Add all of THAT turmoil to the NC's enactment of a gay marriage ban and it's no wonder Congressional Democrats are looking at themselves and painfully asking, "Charlotte NC??? REALLY!!???"

It's Christmas and Birthday rolled into one for those who hold Political Partys in complete and utter disdain... :D

Michale.....

You talking about the Edwards trial, or some other sex scandal? Do tell!

-CW

Excellent point. It's actually the card they play the best. Look at 2004: war hero runs against draft dodger. Who got attacked for his military service? Kerry. A new verb was born: "swiftboating."

What is Romney weakest on? That'll be his main point of attack on Obama, guaranteed.

-CW

I was wondering if you factored into your analysis the various incidents coming down the road??

Nah, not really. This was just a "far out gut feeling" type of column. We'll get to much more focused analysis next month.

I like your list of variables, though, it seems to even-handedly cover a lot of bases. I would add to the list Greece melting down and leaving the Eurozone, and possible fallout in the US economy.

-CW

Welcome to the site! See my comment, above, to insert90, where I apologize for the delay in approving your first comment.

I wondered if anyone was going to throw that one EV from Nebraska into the mix. That's a good point, too, about ME (the only other state, to my knowledge, that divvies up their EVs).

AZ is going to be fascinating to watch, now that they don't have a "favorite son" on the ballot, that's for sure. You might be right on NH and IA.

So you still think NC will go for Obama?

As for PA, there's still a very valid reason to call it the "Keystone State" -- you are right about that.

-CW

First off, welcome to the site, and my apologies for the delay. Your first comment was held for moderation, but you should now be able to post instantly, as long as you don't post two or more links in a single comment. [Those are held for moderation to cut down on comment spam.]

I think FL will be just as close, but tend to agree about the importance of OH and VA.

-CW

Michale.....

I am, as I am wont to do, exposing their hypocrisy for castigating the Rights actions as "Fear Mongering" and then turning around and indulging in blatant and unrestrained fear mongering themselves..

After re-reading my initial post, I would have to say that you are correct..

I was taking Democrats to task for total Bullshit Fear Mongering...

My bust...

Michale.....

First off, it's not "fear mongering" if it's a valid concern.

Second, I am not taking Democrats to task for Fear Mongering.

I am, as I am wont to do, exposing their hypocrisy for castigating the Rights actions as "Fear Mongering" and then turning around and indulging in blatant and unrestrained fear mongering themselves..

But I have noticed that it's a favorite tactic of Karl Rove and the Republicans to project upon their opponents what they are actually engaged in doing themselves.

Just as it is also the favorite tactic of Democrats...

That's what makes being an NPA so wonderful and refreshing.

You recognize the BS coming from BOTH political Partys... :D

Michale.....

If you're going to preach about fear-mongering, I think it would be best to take the Republicans to task first. Fear-mongering was their go-to tool after 9/11, and I became rather ashamed of my fellow Americans by the way they were led by the nose.

But I have noticed that it's a favorite tactic of Karl Rove and the Republicans to project upon their opponents what they are actually engaged in doing themselves.

You can start panicking again: NYT/CBS poll Romney 46-43, up +1 over Obama with women
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/14/1091706/-You-can-start-panicking-again-NYT-CNN-poll-Romney-46-43-up-1-over-Obama-with-women

Democrats need to understand something...

Fear Mongering that is total bullshit may generate some points initially..

But, in the long term, they lose those gains and then some..

Plus their credibility is shot for the next time they want to fear monger..

Michale.....

I don't see a whole lot of Black evangelicals going for Romney. He's not even a "Christian" by most evangelical definitions of the word.

True.. With very few exceptions, expecting the black community to vote Romney is simply a bridge to far..

However, the black community will likely be encouraged by Obama's embrace of his inner gay man to simply stay home on 6 Nov..

A non-Obama vote from the black community is a de-facto vote FOR Romney.

Joshua,

south orange/maplewood. there are quite a few famous people from there, a couple of whom i went to school with.

Ahhh.. It's been a while since I was there ('76-'78) but I do remember one of the best winters I had there (New Years Eve, 3 feet of snow) and the brutal summers.. I haven't felt humidity like New Jersey along the Navesink River in July ever again. Even down here in FL...

Michale.....

south orange/maplewood. there are quite a few famous people from there, a couple of whom i went to school with.

while new york is solidly democratic, new jersey is interesting in that it has the occasional independent streak and sometimes does flip the other way. yes, it's likely to tilt toward obama, but if i were you i would not put it in the foregone conclusion category.

What part of Jersey did you live in??

I went to High School in the Middletown/Red Bank area...

Red Bank, NJ. Made famous by Weird Al Yankovic.. :D

Michale....

I was wondering if you factored into your analysis the various incidents coming down the road??

I am going to "program" you with some variables and, if you don't mind, could you give me a revised Electoral College analysis?

Variable #1
CrapCare is ruled unconstitutional. It is thrown out in it's entirety..

Variable #2
ObamaCare sails thru SCOTUS confirmation intact and truly becomes the law of the land.

Variable #3
Holder v AZ is decided entirely in favor of Arizona.

Variable #4
Holder v AZ is decided entirely in favor of the DOJ.

Variable #5
Holder v AZ is a split decision whereas some of the more pernicious laws are struck, but the main thrust of allowing LEOs to confirm immigration status is upheld.

Variable #6
Israel launches a strike on Iran that combines the best elements of Entebbe and Osirak. Iran's nuclear capability is decimated in a day and it will be decades before Iran can even think about becoming a nuclear power. There is little or no retaliatory fallout from Iran.

Variable #7
Israel launches a strike on Iran. Iran is ready and the attack is thwarted with massive loss of Israeli life and hardware.

Variable #8
Israel launches a strike on Iran that, while successful, drags the US into a long drawn out Middle East war.

I had actually started with only 3 variables, but I wanted to get a nuanced picture on possible "WHAT IF" scenarios...

What'cha think?? How does your Electoral College change under those variables??

Michale.....

i agree with you that florida will probably go to romney by a nose. our state has a weak spot for crazy cut-throat businessmen.

in spite of voters being not particularly enthusiastic, pennsylvania is likely to tilt toward obama. its rust belt section is pretty split down the middle, but the philly area is a solid democratic stronghold and outnumbers its affluent and conservative suburbs.

while new york is solidly democratic, new jersey is interesting in that it has the occasional independent streak and sometimes does flip the other way. yes, it's likely to tilt toward obama, but if i were you i would not put it in the foregone conclusion category.

~joshua

While I agree that Maine will go for Obama, and Nebraska will go for Romney, Maine's northern second Congressional District is a possible pick up for Romney, and Nebraska's second Congressional District (Omaha) is a possible hold for Obama, who won it last time. Of course these won't change the electoral calculus much, unless it comes down to one or two electoral votes, but these districts certainly deserve their own space in any electoral College breakdown. My gut tells me ME2 goes to Obama, and Omaha could go any way, but neither is safe territory for either candidate.

In your "high degree of confidence" states I am pretty much in agreement. Arizona however, while it will likely go for Romney, is no more likely to do so then say Colorado is to go for Obama. Arizona will probably have the closest margin of any of your "high confidence" states.

My gut says that you've got Iowa and New Hampshire reversed, but that's really just intuition. Still, I think if they split, Obama stands a better chance in Iowa then New Hampshire.

I also doubt that Obama's gay marriage pronouncement will make any difference in African-American turnout in North Carolina or anywhere else for that matter. I think North Carolina remains the perfect swing state that it was four years ago.

And lastly, I think that if Pennsylvania doesn't go for Obama then he's probably also lost many of these other swing states (OH, FL, NC, VA, NH), and the election. My gut tells me PA may poll as a tight race, but comes home to blue in November.

But these are quibbles. You've mostly done a great job of identifying the battleground.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the primaries.

When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

NationalPopularVote
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