Heh. I think me unenlightened self needs a dictionary to respond more appropriately. But thank you!

BTW, after seeing this, I think we may be in good hands with Iowa. (He says w/ 20 minutes left to go before turning on the results.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qLZZ6JD0g9Y

1) The folks over at NewsMax sure hate Romney. They're running a headline that says "Newt: Liberal Republicans Continue To Spend Millions On Attack Ads As We Focus On Conservatism"

By headline, I mean it's probably a paid advertisement :)

2)The childish one. Best headline if Santorum wins Iowa?

http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/o11ws/best_headline_if_santorum_wins_today_in_iowa/

If you don't know what I'm referring to, Google "Santorum" :)

And yes, I'm 12. Is that a hint about my age?

-David

All along, I've said that Bachmann, Perry and Santorum (BPS)are essentially the same candidate.
I think that Bachmann and Perry supporters are going to jump ship -- about half from each. There is only one place they will jump to: Santorum.

Santorum: 29%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 23%
Gingrich: 14%
Roemer: 3% (hey, I like the guy)

This is not say that there aren't differences in BPS, but the differences are far less important than the similarities.

Superficial: Not adulterous/grandios/professorial; Not particularly flip-floppy; not peace freaks who want to kill government; not buisness CEO's with wandering hands; and none of them need to wear a wig.

Real: Committed Social Conservatives: abortion, DOMA, DADT, Marriage Vow; Anti-Immigration; Anti-Tax on the Rich; American Exceptionalism,...

Anyway. We'll see tonite.

republicans fall in line, it's what they do. romney is still the establishment candidate, and most republicans still ultimately follow the establishment. at the moment, tea partiers are too fragmented to make a difference. romney has a narrow lead in iowa and is a foregone conclusion in new hampshire.

if gingrich stays in double digits through the first two contests then he can still make a run starting in south carolina. santorum may have the timing but he doesn't have the southern political chops. perry is still a remote possibility, but he'd have to shore up his debate skills a whole lot in very little time. ron paul has the same constituency he's always had. bachmann resonates with tea-partiers but still needs time to steep. huntsman may show up a bit in new hampshire, but i don't see him making double digits anywhere else.

Yeah, this was a real toss of the dice. Or, if you prefer, throwing darts at the wall.

Iowa is tough to poll accurately for the caucus, because such a tiny, tiny percentage of people even show up. The most Republicans have ever managed was like 120,000 -- out of a state with around 3 million people.

But we've got to start playing this game somewhere...

-CW