Shows how much you know! :D I am the biggest anti-smoking Nazi around here. :D

No, it simply means that CW exhibits my gift for logical and rational thought processes.. :D

Michale...
135

Besides, you are assuming a monolithic delegate structure. Romney tries to "throw" anything and the shit hits the fan. In my opinion, a deadlocked convention gives the not to someone not already running ...

The point about Newt and Hispanics is a good one, and one many Democrats are missing, so far. Just had to say that.

DerFarm -

Ah, but Paul would only have to gain enough delegates to deny the other two an outright majority. And, in your example, it looks like he's got over 11%. That means if Mitt and Newt are both around 45%, Paul would deny them the win. In other words, I think your example backs up my scenario.

-CW

Moi? Toy with Paulites? Perish the thought...

Heh.

I am influenced by commenters, in terms of the topics I choose to write about, and the Paulites have been screaming for months about how ignored they are... so I thought I'd give them an early Christmas present, that's all.

:-)

Just call me Santa Weigant.

-CW

Caucas States with delegates There appears to be some uncertainty over caucas states, but I think the analysis will hold, nonetheless.

I'm going to assume that Mitt will garner roughly 20% of all the delegates from each state, Ron Paul will take 70%. I think its begin generous, but then this is a best/worst case scenario:

Alaska 4 15
Colorado 6 21
Hawaii 4 14
Iowa 4 14
Kansas 8 28
Louisiana 8 30
Maine 4 15
Minnesota 8 28
Nevada 20 8 (c'mon, its Mormon)
North Dakota 4 14
Texas 10 35 (1/3 caucas)
Utah 35 3 (Utah? get real)
Washington 8 28
Wyoming 4 14
127 267

out of 2288. Doesn't look like enough to me to move the meter much at all.

The fact is, other than the newscycle worth (which can be enormous in Iowa and some early states) the caucases aren't worth campaigning over.

If you can't make it in the big primary states, you are not going to make it. I've been unable to find Ron Paul vs the R's in the opinion polls for the big primary states. No surprise, its a long way out for most.

However, my basic belief about Newt remains the same for Paul: If he was so beloved by the R's he wouldn't have had to sit thru the clown show of the last 8 months.

Just as, in 2008, the establishment tried to anoint Clinton, but the base wanted Obama..

I bet the base is kicking themselves in the arse every day and twice on Sunday! :D

Stranger things have happened. The narrative which would destroy Newt is that there's really not much difference between him and Romney. If people start to realize this, Paul could pull off an upset.

Newt has some really big advantages that the Obama campaign truly fears..

Newt isn't the enemy of the Middle Class that Romney is... Further, Newt has inroads into the Hispanic Community that rival Obama's...

I think we can all agree that Obama can't run on his record because his record stinks to high heaven...

Obama's only hope is run the most negative campaign he can in an effort to demonize the GOP candidate...

Newt will be much harder to demonize than Romney...

Michale.....
125

What's kind of funny is watching the Republican party struggle with the same thing the rest of the country has struggled with for years: trying to work with people who have a religious idea.

But religion hasn't won. Newt is just better able to conceal his "establishment-ness" from the base. This is why the Ron Pauls of the world pose an interesting dilemma for Republicans.

Stranger things have happened. The narrative which would destroy Newt is that there's really not much difference between him and Romney. If people start to realize this, Paul could pull off an upset.

Stranger things have happened.

-David

16

You can't get elected or nominated without AT A MINIMUM the benign neglect of the media that supports the bulk of your positions.

Like it or not, love it or leave it, Fox News is the media of the right, and Ron Paul. If you don't get the love from Fox news, you don't get the Love from the right. And Roger Ailes is Fox News. And he don't like Ron Paul.
here
and here

I don't know how many people I've heard say they like certain positions of Ron Paul, but none of them want to vote for him. Irag and Afghanistan kill off the neo-conservatives, Absolutely no abortion kills off the progressives, DADT and marriage neutrality for gays kills off the social conservatives, actually having to FOLLOW the constitution kills off the fiscal conservatives ...

Which leave the 12-15% support that he has all the time, everywhere. Such is life.