Comments on: Republican Field Approaches Iowa And New Hampshire http://www.chrisweigant.com/2011/11/21/republican-field-approaches-iowa-and-new-hampshire/ Reality-based political commentary Sat, 02 May 2026 03:37:52 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: dsws http://www.chrisweigant.com/2011/11/21/republican-field-approaches-iowa-and-new-hampshire/#comment-17410 dsws Wed, 23 Nov 2011 23:08:52 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=4817#comment-17410 There will be a passel of fringe candidates as always, but I'll guess that none of the Republicans that have gotten any media attention will do third-party campaigns. There will be a passel of fringe candidates as always, but I'll guess that none of the Republicans that have gotten any media attention will do third-party campaigns.

]]> By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2011/11/21/republican-field-approaches-iowa-and-new-hampshire/#comment-17406 Chris Weigant Wed, 23 Nov 2011 20:04:56 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=4817#comment-17406 dsws - How high would you peg the chances for anyone making a third-party run under your scenario? Some GOP base voters are going to be seriously annoyed if Romney is the nominee, but I'm not sure how far they'd go in their annoyance, myself. If Romney wins NH, NV, and FL, I think it's all over. He may get second in IA, but the anti-Mitt feeling runs so high there that I bet someone will edge him out for first place. Also, in SC, where Romney may not even place in the top three. One interesting facet is the fact that the GOP went for proportional delegate divisions in their early states, though. This could keep the race alive through Super Tuesday and even further. Eventually, the "winner takes all" rules come back (after... um, April? March? I forget), and the race will likely soon be over, but it may take a lot longer than is usual in the Republican Party to crown a king. Or, to be fair to Bachmann (snerk), a queen. :-) -CW dsws -

How high would you peg the chances for anyone making a third-party run under your scenario? Some GOP base voters are going to be seriously annoyed if Romney is the nominee, but I'm not sure how far they'd go in their annoyance, myself.

If Romney wins NH, NV, and FL, I think it's all over. He may get second in IA, but the anti-Mitt feeling runs so high there that I bet someone will edge him out for first place. Also, in SC, where Romney may not even place in the top three.

One interesting facet is the fact that the GOP went for proportional delegate divisions in their early states, though. This could keep the race alive through Super Tuesday and even further. Eventually, the "winner takes all" rules come back (after... um, April? March? I forget), and the race will likely soon be over, but it may take a lot longer than is usual in the Republican Party to crown a king. Or, to be fair to Bachmann (snerk), a queen.

:-)

-CW

]]> By: dsws http://www.chrisweigant.com/2011/11/21/republican-field-approaches-iowa-and-new-hampshire/#comment-17402 dsws Wed, 23 Nov 2011 19:39:26 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=4817#comment-17402 I'll take my shot-in-the-dark guess: Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. Ron Paul emerges as the anybody-but-Romney candidate and wins one in the next set of states before fading away as the Party half-heartedly unites behind the inevitable candidate. Turnout is low as the real Romney enthusiasts are few and the ABRs feel they have no one to vote for. The general election is a squeaker one way or the other, also with moderately low turnout despite near-record spending on GOTV. I'll take my shot-in-the-dark guess:

Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. Ron Paul emerges as the anybody-but-Romney candidate and wins one in the next set of states before fading away as the Party half-heartedly unites behind the inevitable candidate. Turnout is low as the real Romney enthusiasts are few and the ABRs feel they have no one to vote for. The general election is a squeaker one way or the other, also with moderately low turnout despite near-record spending on GOTV.

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