Just to be fair, that SHOULD read 'and anything below 40 percent is "Nixon/Dubya/Carter" territory.'

Just sayin'... :D

DF,

So what difference does it make that his
popularity can be measured by the black population in those states?

Other than to show that racism is alive and well, not a damn thing... :D

Obama and Perry/Bachman/Paul and company? That is whole different animal. Just because you might not like Obama, doesn't mean you'll automatically vote against him.

You have it backwards.. Obama's "likability" numbers are still in the 60s and 70s...

It's his leadership marks and competency marks that are in the toilet..

This is evidenced by the fact that Obama simply cannot run on his record because his record is so dismal...

People will be voting on THAT basis, not on whether or not they want to have a beer with the candidates.

While it's unlikely that the political ideologues and fanatics will actually vote for what's best for the country, it is sure as sunshine that those who ARE disappointed enough in Obama's performance will simply stay home..

For me, personally. If it was Obama v Huntsman, you can count me in the latter stay-home category.. Other than that, you can count on me as an A.B.O. vote...

It's a pretty sad testimonial for the incumbent when his best campaign slogan is, "Yea, but look at the OTHER guy!"

Michale.....

"Chris Christie Still Has 'No Plans' To Run In 2012"

and Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL DEAD!

I would, however, like to throw some monkey wrenches in the works, ie: WHO CARES???

Let's face it, there is no way that Obama can ever take anything in the "Old South" (excepting VA, NC, and FL). So what difference does it make that his
popularity can be measured by the black population in those states?

Further, there is no way any rightwing nut currently running (I except Romney and Huntsman from this statement) could possibly win certain states (Mass, CA, NY, NJ, VT, ..).

We can (and will) bicker about exactly which states fall into these two categories, but the reality is that these two categories exist.

What about the rest? What is the feeling in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania? And DOES IT MATTER!

I don't like Obama right now. I think he has been a sellout, a loser in the negotiations of the past 18 months (boy, would I LOVE to play poker with him), and has broken promises that he could have kept. But does that mean I won't vote for him? No. Just because I don't like him, doesn't automatically mean that I'll vote for the rightwing fool the R's are going to put up (I except Huntsman from being a fool).

Past close presidential elections have always had opponents of degree, not magnitude: Bush/Gore, Bush/Kerry, Clinton/Bush, Reagan/Carter, Carter/Ford, Nixon/Humphrey... The differences in these men were not night and day. Indeed, George Wallace ran on the "not a dime's bit of difference" in '68.

Obama and Perry/Bachman/Paul and company? That is whole different animal. Just because you might not like Obama, doesn't mean you'll automatically vote against him.

And people who self identify as TP are STILL a quite small piece of the electoral pie in a presidential general election. 31% favorable, 51% unfavorable according to CNNORC poll.
i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/09/poll.aug9.pdf

It doesn't matter if you disagree with the actual numbers, the fact is that the vast majority of the TP is Republican and only a portion of the Republicans are TP.

I don't know what will happen in 2012, but the current polls are probably not a good indicator of the Presidential elections.