So much for the administration's claim that there are "no boots on the ground", eh?? :D

Michale.....

By the way, that site has reporting that is generally well sourced inside Israeli intelligence and military. They front-ran the mainstream's recognition of the scope of the Libyan war from the day they reported in February that HMS Cumberland made port in Benghazi, (generally reported as a mission to pick up Europeans caught in the civil strife), and dropped off a large contingent of British, European, and US "advisors."

If their thread of logic in that article is correct, it may well be that this battle will play a definitive role in public perception in a wind-down, cease fire, and start of negotiations.

I think that's because there is no fight anymore between Brega and Ajdabiya. The rebels and their backers spread scores of statements like that they conquered or surrounded Brega - but no video.

Have a guess why rebels do not proudly present their gains aganst Brega they need so much for oil, water and gas. My guess: the reason for that the rebels don't provide videos of their heroic battle victories around Brega, is that the rebels' statements are blunt lies. Obviously, the rebels attacking Brega have been completely routed.

Where the remainder of the attacking rebels actually went to was just written in Los Angeles Times: they went to bury some of their dead in Benghazi. Hence, Libyan state TV had no problem to film the area up to 35 km close to Ajdabiya.

The name on the YouTube channel is "Rayyise," which means "chief" or "head" and is generally used to title presidents and potentates. The channel is notorious among Libyan rebel activists as a regime prop-shop. A lot of the burned-out vehicles look old -- dust has already covered the scorch marks. Remember, there has been LOTS of fighting around Brega, so that video could have been taken anywhere at any time.

What it doesn't show -- tellingly! -- is fighting.

Good points. Especially about the gas. You're right, WWII proved that a lack of gasoline can be fatal to an army.

I will check out the Gharyan story, too. Do you have a link to a good basic political map of Libya? I haven't been able to find a really good one yet.

Marcel -

First, welcome to the site.

As for the video... um, OK. Not knowing the language, all I see is about a dozen bombed out vehicles, on a lonely stretch of desert road. Is there some sort of context to this video? As I said, I lack the language skills to figure out what is being said, but the images themselves don't seem to prove much other than a minor battle took place, at some point, wherever it was shot.

-CW

thank you for this great article. In addition, I found a fresh video from the frontline showing rebel forces "surrounding" Brega:

http://youtu.be/8nUn2299IGU

The Al Jazeera Live blog on Libya has forgot to mention these pictures.

Best wishes
Marcel

1) A factor you don't mention is gasoline (as opposed to oil). Libya is a net importer of the stuff in regular times, and right now rebels either hold or threaten to take most of the country's gasoline infrastructure. That's why Tripolitans are waiting several days in line for their rationed gasoline, and it's also why the rebels increasingly enjoy a mobility advantage over the government's troops. For example, Ghadafi hasn't been capable of sustained offensives for months now. Rebels coordinated the envelopment and investment of Brega while the loyalist commander sat behind defenses instead of sending patrols. Think of Rommel waiting behind his minefields at El Alamein, hundreds of miles from his nearest fuel resupply point, waiting for the tankers and ammo ships the British were sinking. That's the most analogous historical situation I can think of right now.

2) The capture of Brega and Ras Lanuf would give the LTNC control of most of Libya's oil infrastructure. But it isn't the only location of a "battle for Libya," because Ghadafi's hometown of Gharyan is being surrounded in the West. If Gharyan falls, Ghadafi will be cut off from 95% of the country. Either city falling into rebel hands would be a major blow to the regime. Capture both, and Ghadafi stands in virtual checkmate.