Comments on: Electoral Math Charts Updated

By: mojopinata

mojopinata — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 05:51:14 +0000

Hi Chris, i produce and direct videos for GOOD Media (GOOD Magazine) and just finished a video on the battleground states that used much of your math and research as a basis. We also factored in many other articles, opinions, and polls but this is what we ended up with:

you are listed in the sources (under huffington post). curious to know what you think...

-m

By: Chris Weigant

Chris Weigant — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 23:41:52 +0000

BLaws -

I took a look at Michigan's data, and I'm hoping you're right. It looks pretty good for Obama there for now.

By my math, using your predictions, this equates to:

Obama 344
McCain 173
Too close to call 21

I'd be pretty happy with that result, personally!

-CW

By: BLaws

BLaws — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:45:18 +0000

"I would really love to move Michigan to at least Probable for Obama, but so far the polls haven't reflected strong support for him here." - CW

Actually. If you plot the polls listed at that site, then add a linear trendline, you see that Obama is gaining support over time and McCain is actually losing support. If you look at the Rasmussen polls to keep with the same methodology, the trend lines don't change all that much but you can clearly see that Obama is steadily increasing support while McCain is losing. Projected out it looks to be 56% to 42% by Nov 4th at current trends.

"As far as the rest of them go, they're all too close and too volatile for me to call one way or another. The final seven battleground states are: Florida, Indiana, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia." - CW

By my charts, I'm predicting:
Florida: Obama by 4%
Indiana: Obama 54%, McCain 46% (laugh... go ahead :p)
Nevada: McCain by 4% (Unless Richardson is VP)
Montana/ND: toss ups
Ohio: Obama by 3%
Virginia: Obama by 7%
Georgia: Super close
Missouri: McCain by 4%
Colorado: Obama by 2%
New Hampshire: Obama by 3%