Comments on: Electoral Math, From Knucklebiter To Landslide

By: Chris Weigant

Chris Weigant — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 19:06:19 +0000

Allen -

Thanks for posting this. This is an extremely cool site, and I recommend it to anyone not scared of statistics. I will be watching it for the next few months. Again, thanks for posting these links!

-CW

By: Allen

Allen — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:56:36 +0000

Here's a website that computes the probability of each candidate winning the election based on recent poll data. It also ranks the states most likely to swing the outcome:

http://election-projection.net

The best feature though might be the interactive probability calculator:

http://election-projection.net/interactive.html

This lets you run your own numbers and see what the likely election outcome will be.

By: BLaws

BLaws — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 11:44:52 +0000

My prediction (barring any major event outside of the campaigns' control):

Obama:
AK, WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, NV, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, IN, OH, VA, NC, GA, PA, NY, ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI, MO, NE(1)

McCain:
MT, ID, UT, AZ, WY, ND, SD, NE(4), KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, KY, TN, AL, SC, FL, WV

Obama: 367
McCain: 171

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:17:59 +0000

Before we get to crystal ball gazing, though, we have to clean up some old business here. I ran a contest (right before the Pennsylvania primaries) to see who could predict the outcome of the Democratic nomination race most accurately. Since the race has been over for weeks, and since I have been remiss in announcing winners, I'd like to kick off the general election prognosticating by giving the winners and near-winners from the primary campaign their due.

Geee CW....

I would have thought that I would have at least merited an honorable mention for the worst case of prognostication, the most quatloos lost and the pic voted most likely to scare small children!! {pout} hehehehehe :D

Since I am not adverse to embarrassing myself further, I predict a knuckle biter with an Obama win.. This is based on the fact that Hillary's PUMA crowd seems to be losing steam...

Of course, there are at least 2 possible random events that could skew the results.. One would be massive riots at the Dem Convention in Denver. The other would be a devastating terror attack on US soil... Either of those events happen and all bets are off...

Michale.....

{cross posted to Huffington Post}

By: fstanley

fstanley — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 23:03:19 +0000

This method of electing a President really needs to end. Getting rid of the electoral college is one change I would like to see when we have a new President. In the meantime I will have to close my eyes and throw darts at the board to come up with some picks.

...Stan