If he was facing McCain 2000, and not McBush 2008 I'd have agreed with you. But McCain has made the horrible mistake of changing who he is, and it's about to come down on him full force from the media. For months the media hasn't been running stories on McCain's flip flops and pandering because the Obama-Clinton battle was better. But now you are going to see McCain getting slammed.

Like I said, barring something major with Obama, they've already hit him pretty hard so their unused material is now going to be McCain. He's been around so long, and so outspoken, that if he takes a position on anything now, there is a good chance that at some point he said something different. They are going to paint him as a major flip flopper saying whatever he can to get elected.

I also believe that the Hillary fight has helped Obama in the last month. Because it's really kept his supporters interested and added a ton of people to the Dem party in states he's going to need. North Carolina, Indiana, and Oregon are important to his map. By having those hot battles he got hundreds of thousands of people registered to vote in those states and invested in this fight.

Look at the Rasmussen poll for Oregon. At the end of March Obama was only 6% ahead of McCain 48%-42% with 10% undecided. Two weeks ago he was ahead by 14% (52%-38%) with 10% undecided. I'd expect that he's even further ahead now.

North Carolina, Mar 20, 51%-42% McCain over Obama. May 8th... narrowed to 48%-45%.

There's still 6 months till the election, there was only 5 months of primaries. There's still plenty of time. Also you have to consider the math. Estimates are that 30% of Hillary's supporters won't vote for Obama, thats 30% of 17M or about 5M people. Now, a lot of those supporters that have said they won't support him were in states like KY and WV that aren't going Blue anyway. Many will be in states that are solid Blue even without them. Sure, some states will have a big chunk that won't vote for him.

But the plan is to register and turn out as many of the 100 million that do not vote normally. Even if you get just a small percentage of that, you would add millions of people. Any other year I'd say it would be an exercise in foolishness, but not this year. With GWB having a 28% approval rating, economy being so bad, gas so high, people are invested this year more than they have been since Vietnam.

John McCain just can't get the enthusiasm from the Republican base that he'll need. Many people on the right just don't like him, and the more he's pandering to them the more he looks like a flip flopper and the more he loses moderates and independants.

Being from a historically heavy Republican city (Cincinnati) I have a lot of republican friends and coworkers, and of those not already supporting Obama just are not thrilled with McCain at all. In fact some are furious with him over his health care plan.

One guy I know hates Obama, he thinks he's nothing but a phony media made creation. But when he heard that McCain wanted to get rid of employer paid health care and give only a $5000 take break he was livid. He said he'd never vote for McCain and would vote Obama. He's got 3 kids, one of which needs a lot of medical care. He could never get coverage if it wasn't for his employers group policy.

Maybe I'm just optimistic, but I simply don't see John McCain being able to win. He's seriously flawed. He's changed who he was and now he's stuck. He can't go back to his old self without alienating most of his base and he can't stay who he is now because he's going to get hammered on for being a flipflopping panderer.

If Hillary had dropped out a month ago and got behind Obama, I would probably agree with your estimations..

However, in the here and now, I don't think the Dem Party can unify in time to put forth those numbers..

And it's just going to get worse from here on out..

This should have been a banner year for the Democratic Party..

But instead, we are looking at the real and distinct possibility of a GOP blowout...

Michale.....

Obama carries:
WA, OR, CA, NV, MT, ND, TX, MO, NM, CO, HI,
NE, IA, WI, MN, IL, MO, IN, MI, OH, PA, NY, SC,
ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, NC, FL

McCain carries:
AZ, TX, UT, ID, WY, SD, KS, OK, AR, LA,
MS, AL, GA, TN, KY, WV, NH, AK

Obama 390 vs. McCain 148

I think TX, GA, AL, MS, LA go to McCain by less than 5%, and Obama carries IN, FL, SC, NC, MO, MI, and OH by less than 5%.

Once they pick VP’s this could change, just going on gut feeling at this point in time. Feel free to laugh or agree.

- Brian

The second paragraph should read,

"But if the McCain/Clinton ticket lost, Hillary would claim she was a "double agent" working for the DNC......"

My bust...

Michale.....

But look at the upside to Hillary...

If the McCain/Clinton ticket won, she would be a feeble heartbeat away from the Presidency.. Of course, McCain would have to beef up his Secret Service detail to prevent a sudden bout of "depression..."

But if the McCain/Clinton ticket won, Hillary would claim she was a "double agent" working for the DNC all the time to sabotage the GOP. She will state she learned dirty tricks like these dodging sniper fire in Bosnia...

Michale.....

Perhaps, but McCain isn't THAT bipartisan!

McCain/Clinton '08

Michale.....

Then I am no longer afraid.. :D

Michale.....

Very good.. You *HAVE* been paying attention. That's good..

Democrats have finally found the right formula for winning elections..

They simply have to act like Republicans. :D

So, the best way for Obama to beat McCain in November is by being more to the Right of John McCain.. :D

Works for me.. :D

But it doesn't really much matter to me. I am not a big fan of the "us" and "them" mentality vis a vis political parties. I think it fosters divisiveness and makes us forget that, first and foremost, we are all Americans..

Or, at least, we should be.

Michale.....

3 traditionally safe +10 GOP districts just elected Democrats.

What party is famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of sure victory???

I'll give you a hint... It's not the GOP....

And that's not "spin"...

"Dem's da facts, Jack!!"
-Bill Murray, STRIPES

Michale.....

When first posted, there was an error in my math which resulted in me overstating what picking up 30 seats in the House would look like. I have corrected this error, and I apologize for any confusion.

-CW