Comments on: New Rule For Uncommitted Superdelegates http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/ Reality-based political commentary Thu, 30 Apr 2026 02:50:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: akadjian http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2262 akadjian Wed, 14 May 2008 20:43:32 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2262 Wow, Chris. That is news about Edwards. I hadn't heard that. Interesting and way to call it. Glad I didn't hazard a guess as I would've been quite a bit off. I have to give Hillary kudos today for coming out and saying it would be a "terrible mistake" for anyone to vote for McCain over Obama. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/?iref=hpmostpop Whichever way it turns out, the candidate who eventually loses can do a lot to help heal the party. And I'd hope the party and people would embrace them likewise. If Obama were down, I'd hope he'd do the same. Because the differences between Obama and Clinton are really are not that great when compared to McSame. - Dave Wow, Chris. That is news about Edwards. I hadn't heard that. Interesting and way to call it. Glad I didn't hazard a guess as I would've been quite a bit off.

I have to give Hillary kudos today for coming out and saying it would be a "terrible mistake" for anyone to vote for McCain over Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/?iref=hpmostpop

Whichever way it turns out, the candidate who eventually loses can do a lot to help heal the party. And I'd hope the party and people would embrace them likewise.

If Obama were down, I'd hope he'd do the same. Because the differences between Obama and Clinton are really are not that great when compared to McSame.

- Dave

]]> By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2260 Chris Weigant Wed, 14 May 2008 17:31:53 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2260 Oh, forgot to point out... Stan got pretty close with "60-65%" too. Well done! -CW Oh, forgot to point out...

Stan got pretty close with "60-65%" too. Well done!

-CW

]]> By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2259 Chris Weigant Wed, 14 May 2008 17:29:35 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2259 Thatcher - Looks like I was pretty close with "30 maybe 40" points, eh? I too was astonished that Edwards got 7%. While watching the returns come in last night, I kept saying to myself -- "wait, this doesn't add up. Obama plus Clinton equals only 92-93% Who are the others voting for?" I tried to get the answer to this, but couldn't find anyone tracking anything other than Obama/Clinton. The West Virginia website wasn't very helpful either. I had to assume it was Edwards, but I really didn't know until I heard news reports on it. WV either liked the good-ol'-southern-boy lots and lots, or else there are people there who won't vote for a black man OR a woman. I really don't know. And you can bet your bottom dollar the GOP is quaking in its collective boots at breakfast this morning. A Democrat won in MISSISSIPPI?!? In a district so solidly red everyone there had sunburn?? What's more -- this is the THIRD time in a row this has happened with special House elections. So like I said, lots of fear on the GOP side today. "Oh, what a beautiful mornin'..." -CW Thatcher -

Looks like I was pretty close with "30 maybe 40" points, eh?

I too was astonished that Edwards got 7%. While watching the returns come in last night, I kept saying to myself -- "wait, this doesn't add up. Obama plus Clinton equals only 92-93% Who are the others voting for?" I tried to get the answer to this, but couldn't find anyone tracking anything other than Obama/Clinton. The West Virginia website wasn't very helpful either. I had to assume it was Edwards, but I really didn't know until I heard news reports on it.

WV either liked the good-ol'-southern-boy lots and lots, or else there are people there who won't vote for a black man OR a woman. I really don't know.

And you can bet your bottom dollar the GOP is quaking in its collective boots at breakfast this morning. A Democrat won in MISSISSIPPI?!? In a district so solidly red everyone there had sunburn??

What's more -- this is the THIRD time in a row this has happened with special House elections.

So like I said, lots of fear on the GOP side today.

"Oh, what a beautiful mornin'..."

-CW

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2258 Michale Wed, 14 May 2008 14:04:15 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2258 Obama's VP list... http://www.236.com/blog/w/lee_camp/obamas_short_list_for_vp_leake_6489.php :D Michale..... Obama's VP list...

http://www.236.com/blog/w/lee_camp/obamas_short_list_for_vp_leake_6489.php

:D

Michale.....

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2256 Michale Wed, 14 May 2008 09:48:58 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2256 As I said, this is the best thing that could have happened for McCain.. Looks like it's going to be a convention fight for the Democratic Party... Oh well.. There is always 2012... Michale...... As I said, this is the best thing that could have happened for McCain..

Looks like it's going to be a convention fight for the Democratic Party...

Oh well.. There is always 2012...

Michale......

]]> By: Thatcher http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2254 Thatcher Wed, 14 May 2008 04:15:03 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2254 Obama won the Nebraska Primary tonight. No effect on the delegates won from earlier this year ... but isn't Nebraska full of the "white" voters that people say he is losing ground with? http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/primary.htm Obama won the Nebraska Primary tonight. No effect on the delegates won from earlier this year ... but isn't Nebraska full of the "white" voters that people say he is losing ground with?

http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/primary.htm

]]> By: Thatcher http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2253 Thatcher Wed, 14 May 2008 03:44:44 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2253 Also - HURRAY for Childers in MS-01! Also - HURRAY for Childers in MS-01!

]]> By: Thatcher http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2252 Thatcher Wed, 14 May 2008 03:42:06 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2252 Looks like poblano called it right and I'm now in search for crow to feast upon. However, it is interesting to note about 7% of WV DID vote for Edwards. Looks like poblano called it right and I'm now in search for crow to feast upon. However, it is interesting to note about 7% of WV DID vote for Edwards.

]]> By: Thatcher http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2240 Thatcher Tue, 13 May 2008 15:46:51 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2240 Poblano over at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ says it's going to be 39% (MOE +/- 6%). Poblano over at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ says it's going to be 39% (MOE +/- 6%).

]]> By: Thatcher http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2237 Thatcher Mon, 12 May 2008 23:49:46 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2237 I think what we are forgetting here is turnout ... while WV Dems are overwhelmingly more for Hillary - there is nothing really to motivate the Hillary voters to get out in WV. She's not close to upsetting Obama. She's expected to win big, so individual voters who are for her may not turnout as big as one may think. Then there is the Obama supporters - the campaign and local groups for Obama will be turning out voters as hard as they can to achieve a moral victory to "keep it as close as possible." That being said, as close as possible is probably about 20% ... in Oklahoma she only did 24% better than Obama. In Tennessee, 13%. The only truly southern state that went for Clinton by large margin is Arkansas at 44%. That being said - I'm going for a 24% spread (give or take 4%) in favor of Clinton. But what Obama should do ... knowing he is going to lose big, is turn out a VERY large number of supers throughout the day ... of key people. Say ... 12 - 15 or more. Why? Changes the spin of the evening and next day from "Clinton wins WV big (as expected - or BIGGER than expected)" to "Obama rolls out busload of Superdelegates while Clinton picks up WV". Perhaps tomorrow morning is the time, Chris, that one certain former senator comes out for Obama (though highly unlikely because it wouldn't be in that former senator's normal operating procedure - taking the wind out of another's sails). I think what we are forgetting here is turnout ... while WV Dems are overwhelmingly more for Hillary - there is nothing really to motivate the Hillary voters to get out in WV. She's not close to upsetting Obama. She's expected to win big, so individual voters who are for her may not turnout as big as one may think. Then there is the Obama supporters - the campaign and local groups for Obama will be turning out voters as hard as they can to achieve a moral victory to "keep it as close as possible."

That being said, as close as possible is probably about 20% ... in Oklahoma she only did 24% better than Obama. In Tennessee, 13%. The only truly southern state that went for Clinton by large margin is Arkansas at 44%.

That being said - I'm going for a 24% spread (give or take 4%) in favor of Clinton.

But what Obama should do ... knowing he is going to lose big, is turn out a VERY large number of supers throughout the day ... of key people. Say ... 12 - 15 or more. Why? Changes the spin of the evening and next day from "Clinton wins WV big (as expected - or BIGGER than expected)" to "Obama rolls out busload of Superdelegates while Clinton picks up WV".

Perhaps tomorrow morning is the time, Chris, that one certain former senator comes out for Obama (though highly unlikely because it wouldn't be in that former senator's normal operating procedure - taking the wind out of another's sails).

]]> By: akadjian http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2236 akadjian Mon, 12 May 2008 23:11:00 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2236 I'm with you. Hillary wins. Maybe this will be enough to assuage her ego. At this point, I'm having trouble understand what her motivation for continuing to run is. If it truly is power that drives her, isn't she only creating enemies at this point without really much of a chance to win? Maybe she's just buying time, hoping something catastrophic happens to Obama, but she is very close to the point where she could make a lot of people very angry. If I could, I'd like to tell her that we need her and we could use her talents to help beat the Republicans in November. If Obama were in similar circumstances, I believe he work for the good of the party. Help us out, Hillary! We still love you and need you! Dave I'm with you. Hillary wins. Maybe this will be enough to assuage her ego.

At this point, I'm having trouble understand what her motivation for continuing to run is. If it truly is power that drives her, isn't she only creating enemies at this point without really much of a chance to win?

Maybe she's just buying time, hoping something catastrophic happens to Obama, but she is very close to the point where she could make a lot of people very angry.

If I could, I'd like to tell her that we need her and we could use her talents to help beat the Republicans in November. If Obama were in similar circumstances, I believe he work for the good of the party. Help us out, Hillary! We still love you and need you!

Dave

]]> By: fstanley http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2235 fstanley Mon, 12 May 2008 22:58:47 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2235 I can understand now that we are so close to the end those who want to wait until all the states have voted before publically endorsing a candidate. I agree with you that if they want to wait they should keep quiet and stop whining about the length of the campaign. I would like Sen. Clinton to win 80% of the vote tomorrow but I think it will be more like 60-65. ...Stan I can understand now that we are so close to the end those who want to wait until all the states have voted before publically endorsing a candidate. I agree with you that if they want to wait they should keep quiet and stop whining about the length of the campaign.

I would like Sen. Clinton to win 80% of the vote tomorrow but I think it will be more like 60-65.

...Stan

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2234 Michale Mon, 12 May 2008 21:13:55 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/05/12/new-rule-for-uncommitted-superdelegates/#comment-2234 The best thing that could happen for John McCain is that Hillary receives 30%-50% of the vote... Michale..... The best thing that could happen for John McCain is that Hillary receives 30%-50% of the vote...

Michale.....

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