There's another scenario which is almost as interesting, and may play out at the same time. It's a little-known fact, but the pro-business side of the GOP (of both parties, actually) is for illegal immigration (helps their bottom line). And they're going to be faced with the rank-n-file Republicans who are whipping this into their next big wedge issue. The real question is what will the big business interests do when faced with open revolt on the issue within the GOP.

Of course, there's always the question of how the Democrats are going to handle the same issue, but I see a real intra-party fight on the GOP side next year over this.

-CW

That's tough.

The question about minority status I think hits the core of the issue because this is something the GOP desperately does not want. So they are in a position of having to hold together their coalition.

And this need to stay in power is what gives the evangelical side of the party the better negotiating position.

Why? Because the worst-case scenario for the evangelicals is that they leave and form their own party. Wouldn't bother them one bit. Especially since they're not really getting what they want.

If they approach the GOP with their demands and say we will give you votes and work to further business interests, but we want X, they will get X.

I think they'll get X because the best alternative for the pro-business forces is diminished power and perhaps a minority status. They need the evangelicals much more than evangelicals need them.

What seems to be happening though is that the Christian side of the party is starting to realize their position.

And that's why I see the balance of power shifting in the GOP unless their leaders find a way to make the pro-business position stronger (or seem stronger).

What I think it comes down to is who cares more about losing political power?

And I think it's the pro-business side GOP'ers. They've counted on the evangelical votes for so long that they've cut off other options.

My two cents anyways. I think you're right that if the sides can't hammer out an agreement, it could impact their ability to win elections. Especially if evangelicals form a 3rd party.

But I think the pro-business side will try to avoid this at any cost. And that's where evangelicals have an opportunity for more power in a realignment.

Best
Dave

p.s. Still a lot to think about here. Because I think what you're getting at is how would a religious candidate play in a national election. Would this scare voters away from the Republican party? Quite possibly. But I think the GOP would have an easier time positioning this than trying to hold onto power if evangelicals walk. You can't argue with God.

That is an interesting and original prediction. I have to think about your comment, as it would indeed open up a brand new can of worms in the GOP.

Do you think that if what you say comes true, (a) the candidates would be any better or worse, and (b) could they win national elections or would the GOP consign itself to permanent minority status until things changed again?

I'd be interested to hear your answers. Thanks for writing, you've put a bee in my bonnet indeed.

-CW

And even more fascinating to watch Huckabee fight back using some of the strategy and rhetoric that the Republican party typically reserves for liberals. That is, painting conservatives like Limbaugh as out-of-touch, moneyed, elitists that take their cue from the "D.C./Manhattan chattering class."

Unfortunately, I think what will happen is a reverse of the current power structure in the Republican party. Currently, the economic Republicans dictate the candidates and the evangelicals vote for them because they're the lesser of two evils. What I think the future might hold is that evangelicals could determine the candidates and economic Republicans will vote for them as the lesser of two evils.

It will be very interesting though indeed.